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   05-05-2009 17:59 여성 음성 남성 음성
Nuclear War of Nerves

Should Seoul Remain Content as Idle Spectator?

The nuclear tug-of-war between the United States and North Korea is showing signs of prolongation with no end in sight.

There can be few doubts Pyongyang's impatience is responsible for the ongoing escalation of tension, as it failed to wait for the new U.S. administration to work out a new Northeast Asia policy as part of its global strategy.

The aggravated economy, weakening health of its leader and the need to pick his successor as well as irritation with an unfriendly administration in South Korea might have combined to prompt the reclusive regime into early action. The North's pledge to not return to the six-party talks and its complaint that ``Obama's government is nothing different from the preceding administration'' are just reminders of such frustration resulting in abortive moves.

Unfortunately for Pyongyang, Washington is too busy with more urgent affairs ― pulling its economy out of the worst recession in decades and coping with increasingly perilous situations in Afghanistan and Pakistan ― to be preoccupied with the North's blackmailing, which is a few years away from materializing. Hence the ``benign neglect'' tactics ― gradual pressurizing while not completely shutting the door for dialogue ― is one sign that the incumbent administration is cleverer than its predecessor.

The Stalinist country should know that its current position on the U.S. diplomatic priority list, coming behind the Middle East and Latin America, is where it should belong. For America, the strategic value of the Korean Peninsula mainly lay in the containment of China and Russia during the Cold War, which came to an end two decades ago, hardly comparable with the world's oil fields and its own backyard.

It's not even an open secret that the North's vehement anti-U.S. rhetoric is little more than the resentment of, say, an unrequited lover ― a pitiable dualism.

The only thing that keeps Pyongyang from tearing off its label as the world's troublemaker and laughing stock is its undue _ if not totally unwarranted ― sense of rivalry with Seoul rooted in this nation's tragic modern history. Of course, Seoul is never free from this Cold War mindset, either.

It gives one some relief in this regard that the Lee Myung-bak administration's North Korea policy seems to have turned somewhat softer. Lee reportedly told his cabinet to consider all factors in declaring Seoul's full-fledged participation in the U.S.-led Proliferation Security Initiative. The government recently set aside some 12 billion won in its budget for supporting private groups' humanitarian aid to North Korea. Lee's unification minister even hinted that Seoul would not oppose bilateral dialogue between Washington and Pyongyang.

If Seoul really thinks it is winner in the ideological war on the Korean Peninsula, such a calm, aloof approach is the way it should go. But it should go further in this direction.

President Lee should ponder why the two highest U.S. officials who visited Korea recently ― Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and Obama's special envoy Stephen Bosworth ― had telephone conversations with former President Kim Dae-jung, the author of the ``sunshine policy'' of engaging the isolationist regime, who advised them to adopt ``wisdom'' and ``patience'' in dealing with the desperate, recalcitrant regime.

Experts forecast the current war of nerves between Washington and Pyongyang could last from between two to six months, a period that Seoul could ― and should ― shorten with positive action, as it would be the second-biggest loser if the current state of affairs continues, and North Korea increases its nuclear stockpiles.

A good place to start would be inter-Korean talks to normalize operations at the joint industrial complex in Gaeseong and the release of a South Korean detained there for more than a month ― with little plausible explanation.