Pyongyang Worries World Again

By Nehginpao Kipgen

North Korea is one of the few countries in the world that worries not only its neighbors ― South Korea and Japan ― but also nations thousands of miles away. The country is widely known for its appalling human rights record and a secretive nuclear program.

Japan, the world's second largest economy, is increasingly disturbed by North Korea's nuclear program. Pyongyang announced that it will launch a satellite into orbit between April 4 and 8 over Japan that would endanger international shipping and aviation in the area.

As the set dates get closer, the international community's concern and outrage is more evident. ``This provocative action in violation of the U.N. mandate will not go unnoticed and there will be consequences,'' said U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on March 25.

South Korea's chief nuclear envoy, Wi Sung-lac, said, ``If North Korea launches a rocket, certain countermeasures are unavoidable.'' On the other hand, North Korea, on March 24, warned the United States, Japan and its allies not to interfere with the launch, insisting that it has the right to develop its space program.

``We intend to raise this violation of the Security Council resolution, if it goes forward, in the U.N.,'' said Clinton. The Security Council in 2006 unanimously adopted a resolution banning North Korea from all ballistic missile-related activity. Pyongyang seems not to be deterred by such threats.

On March 13, Japan had protested the move. Both its prime minister and chief cabinet secretary expressed strong words. ``We protest a launch, and strongly demand it be canceled,'' said Prime Minister Taro Aso. Chief Secretary Takeo Kawamura said, ``Legally speaking, if this object falls toward Japan, we can shoot it down for safety reasons.''

Clinton had earlier (March 11) asserted that the United States is committed to resolving North Korea's nuclear deadlock and would like to resume the six-party talks ``at the earliest possible moment.''

But, with a tougher tone last Wednesday, she said, ``We have made it very clear that the North Koreans pursue this pathway at a cost and with consequences to the six-party talks.''

The North's nuclear activity threatens neighboring Japan and South Korea more so than any others. The two countries have thus far used their economies as leverage. North Korea ``is now threatening us everywhere ― on the ground, in the waters and in the air,'' said South Korean President Lee Myung-bak on March 13.

North Korea's nuclear proliferation, if not stopped, could become a precedent to an arms race and eventually destabilize the region. Japan, which disengaged in an arms race at the end of World War II, may be forced to shift its priority to military spending.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, who is a South Korean, said on March 12 that the North Korean rocket launch would ``threaten the peace and stability in the region.''

Despite the outrage and threats, Pyongyang appears likely to go ahead with the rocket launch as planned.

This warning from North Korea is largely an expression of displeasure over Japan and South Korea on the one hand, and an attempt to draw U.S. attention on the six-party talks. North Korea needs not only U.S. economic assistance, but wants Washington to act tough on Seoul and Tokyo.

China and the United States are crucial to diffusing the rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula. The resumption of the six-party talks involving the United States, China, Russia, Japan, South Korea and North Korea is a key element to successfully resolving the crisis.

As Japan and South Korea are important allies and partners of the United States economically and strategically, any setback in the two nations will directly or indirectly have an impact on the U.S. government.

The Bush administration formally removed North Korea from the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism on Oct. 11, 2008. The removal was part of the Washington-Pyongyang agreement to verify North Korea's declaration of its plutonium nuclear program.

Nehginpao Kipgen is political analyst and general secretary of the U.S.-based Kuki International Forum (www.kukiforum.com). He has authored numerous analytical articles on the politics of Asia published in different leading international newspapers.