As the on-again, off-again multilateral talks to denuclearize North Korea resumed in Beijing Monday, prospects are even gloomier than before.
Since the last meeting in July, the six-party format has seen significant changes in its key players: In the United States, the White House's occupant will soon shift from Republican to Democrat; North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's health is shrouded in mystery and conservatives are tightening their grip over South Korean politics, freezing all inter-Korean relations.
It would be rather strange therefore if the ongoing round progresses smoothly to attain its professed goal; wrapping up disablement, documenting ways to verify the North's declaration and providing energy aid to Pyongyang in return.
North Korea in particular will likely be tempted to wait out the exit of President George W. Bush and start over with new President Barack Obama, not only because Pyongyang might think it has won all it wants from the outgoing administration but because the incoming one might propose a ``sweeping deal'' with the communist country.
Pyongyang may consequently be mistaken on two counts. Firstly, few yet know for certain what Obama's well-publicized North Korea policy of ``tough, direct'' diplomacy exactly means; which of the two words would the incoming administration have in mind more? Secondly, the bipartisan U.S. Congressional report on the North Korean nuclear issue does not rule out the use of force if needed, as shown by the Democratic administration of President Bill Clinton in 1994.
The North should allow the gathering of nuclear waste samples if for no other reason than inducing Obama's ``large-caliber'' diplomacy.
That said, the other players, particularly Japan and South Korea, should do their share to help advance the talks. Japan's refusal to provide heavy oil under the pretext of the unresolved issue of North Korean agents' kidnapping of its people appears to be fretful at best or obstructive at worst by putting the cart before the horse.
One could find even more serious cases of confusion in Seoul. Nothing showed the awkward relationship between Seoul and Pyongyang more than the bilateral meeting of two Koreas earlier in the day, in which South Korean chief delegate Kim Sook proposed to his North Korean counterpart, Kim Kye-gwan, direct talks between the two estranged governments.
In other words, Seoul was trying to mend the strained bilateral ties on a multilateral stage. It is a far cry from years ago when South Korea helped to solve multilateral deadlocks based on strong bilateral relations with the North.
President Lee Myung-bak and his Grand National Party (GNP) should take much of the responsibility for the reversed situation, which has drastically reduced Seoul's maneuverability in regional diplomacy. Lee presented his inter-Korean vision of ``joint survival and co-prosperity,'' but stuck to the North's denuclearization as a precondition. This is nothing but putting procedure before a goal.
Similar confusion between cause and effect can be found in the controversy over rightists' groups sending anti-North leaflets on balloons. The flyers should be seen as the result of the hostile cross-border relationship, not its cause.
Some GNP lawmakers even proposed ``governmental support'' for these conservative groups, with a few even going as far as calling for South Korea to also be armed with nuclear weapons.
It's more than frustrating to see this country is running against global trends, looking as far back as the pre-Cold War period.