Tense South Korea-Japan relations are likely to get a new twist following Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda's announcement of his resignation Monday. The main reason for his abrupt decision to step down was his dwindling public support. It was obvious that he could no longer play a leadership role at a time when opposition parties control the upper house, blocking his political agenda.
The South Korean government and its people are closely watching who will become the new Japanese prime minister because Fukuda's successor could bring changes to ties between the two countries. The step-down of Fukuda, 72, who is widely seen as a moderate leader, has negative implications for the Tokyo government's Korea policy. There are growing worries that the leadership change might worsen bilateral relations, which have already reached their lowest ebb over Japan's renewed claims to South Korea's easternmost Dokdo islets.
Specifically, if a hard-line politician is elected prime minister, the two countries could have no other choice but to suffer a greater setback in their diplomatic ties. This scenario could become a reality as Taro Aso, 67, a stalwart rightwing politician in the governing coalition, is on the shortlist of strongly favored candidates for the premiership. Aso, a former hawkish foreign minister, is now the No. 2 man in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).
On Tuesday, Aso expressed his intension to run for president of the LDP, becoming prime minister of the world's second largest economy. He said, ``I believe that I am qualified to take over Mr. Fukuda's agenda, including the emergency economic package.'' He referred to an 11.7-trillion-yen (107-billion-dollar) stimulus plan unveiled Friday. The party leadership contest is scheduled for Sept. 22. The possible election of the outspoken conservative might help Japan emerge from the political turmoil created by the outgoing prime minister.
But, Aso's ambition to succeed Fukuda is causing fear among South Koreans that Japan will gain additional momentum to swing further to the right. Aso angered many Koreans in January 2006 when he called on the Japanese emperor to visit the Yasukuni Shrine, in which the remains of Japan's war dead, including class-A war criminals, are buried.
Some scholars and commentators are not without optimism that Aso, who has a strong support base with the LDP, can carry out state affairs, including foreign policy, in a more stable manner than his predecessors if elected prime minister. However, pessimism prevails over Aso's potential rise to the leadership.
It appears that President Lee Myung-bak's pragmatic diplomacy to forge a future-oriented partnership with Japan is likely to become a remoter dream if a hawkish figure like Aso emerges as Japan's leader. Lee's conciliatory Japan policy has already been dealt a severe blow since the island nation approved guidelines for middle school textbooks to refer to the Dokdo islets as its territory in July.
Bilateral relations cannot improve without Japan giving up its attempts to distort history, whitewash its wartime atrocities and make irrational territorial claims. South Korea and Japan still have a long way to go before making true reconciliation and forging a real partnership.