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Incorrect Forecasts

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Weather Agency Under Attack for Poor Job

People are angry with the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) for its poor job in weather forecasting, especially in this monsoon season. They wonder if the state agency is testing their patience with its incorrect forecasts. Public grumbling has become even louder as the KMA's predictions have missed the mark every weekend since June 28.

The latest case happened on July 18 when the KMA said the rains would start to fall across the country in the afternoon the next day under the influence of a typhoon, calling for heavy precipitations on July 20. However, the weather scoffed the forecast by unexpectedly bringing heavy rains to the central Chungcheong provinces in the early morning hours of July 19. The next day saw scattered rains.

What's more disappointing is that the agency suddenly posted a heavy rain warning for part of the provinces at 4 a.m., two hours after torrential rain began to pound. What is the use of a belated warning? The rain fell in Seoul in the morning despite the KMA forecast. The agency only said that it was difficult to predict the weather because of the volatile movement of the typhoon.

We cannot overemphasize the importance of weather forecasts as our daily living, farming, fishing and business operations are much affected by meteorological changes. As the five-day workweek has firmly taken root in Korean society, an increasing number of people are making plans for weekend outings with their family members, friends and acquaintances.

It is common for them to enjoy recreational activities during the weekend. Therefore, they are required to have correct information about the weather in order not to ruin their weekend plans. Businesses have also suffered from the poor predictions.

There is no denying that the KMA is faced with tougher challenges because of growing uncertainty and unpredictability arising from global warming and climate change. Besides, there is much meteorological variation even across a small area. For example, rain could fall in some neighboring districts in Seoul, while others enjoy sunny skies. But we believe technological advances in weather forecast can properly overcome these challenges.

The KMA recently installed two up-to-date supercomputers by mobilizing taxpayer money to improve its forecasting capabilities. However, the problem seems to be outdated software programs purchased from Japan in 1991. In short, the agency has neglected its work to upgrade the programs, while spending too much on hardware. In addition, a lack of observatories and manpower is blamed for frequent misinformation about the quickly changing weather.

The weather administration is also accused of irregularities related to its purchase of observation equipment. The Board of Audit and Inspection (BAI) discovered in May that the KMA bought substandard equipment for testing the temperatures and moisture in the atmosphere. Now, it is time for the KMA to transform itself to better serve the people, businesses and the nation. It should keep in mind that correct weather forecasts are essential to our daily living, disaster prevention and industrial operations.