Seoul Needs to Prepare for Various Scenarios

Sen. Barack Obama's rise to the Democratic Party's presidential candidacy is a historic event for America and for the world. Not just because he could be the first black president to run the world's sole superpower but because the nomination itself provides a priceless precedent of small, minority groups armed with a timely response to the call of the times winning over larger, mainstream forces.

No one can say for sure whether, and how strong, the political sensation stirred by the 47-year-old political novice will continue through the presidential election. At stake is how Sen. Obama will turn his vision of ``change and integration'' into practicable programs to win the hearts of older, white, conservative voters.

Most Koreans' attention is naturally directed toward foreign policies of not only Sen. Obama but also of his Republican counterpart, Sen. John McCain. Conventional wisdom ― and past records ― shows that the relationship between Seoul and Washington has been better when the occupants of the White House and Blue House were of similar ideological inclinations. For example, the ``sunshine policy'' engaging North Korea, initiated by former President Kim Dae-jung, progressed smoothly during the years of the Bill Clinton administration but met a headwind as soon as George W. Bush took office.

For security-conscious Koreans, Sen. Obama's willingness to talk with the leaders of countries President Bush dubbed as part of an ``axis of evil" would be a welcome change. In the same vein, Sen. McCain's ultra-hawkish stance toward Pyongyang could be a cause of concern. On the trade front, on the other hand, the Republican runner is the active supporter of the bilateral free trade agreement, while his Democratic rival has made it clear if elected, he would renegotiate the accord to better reflect American workers' interests. There seem to be little differences in both candidates' emphasis of the importance of the Korea-U.S. alliance.

Some international commentators say if foreign countries were given the right to vote in the U.S. elections, most would probably vote for the Democratic candidate, both because of Sen. Obama's fresh vision and promises of harmony, and because of their weariness of the Bush administration's one-sided, confrontational international policies.

Security-conscious Koreans may also have similar views but economy-minded people can think differently. In addition, the conservative Lee Myung-bak administration could find it easier to cooperate with America if the Republican administration remains in power in Washington.

It is also apparent, however, all these presumptions remain just that - presumptions. U.S. political history shows that candidates' pledges, in foreign policy and others, have often turned into policies of the opposite stance.

Instead of alternating between joy and disappointment on the changing electoral atmosphere, Seoul needs to quietly watch political trends in America and make preparations for various possible scenarios by taking all variables into account.

Any two allies, however close they are, can't help but try to maximize their national interests, within the large framework of shared principles and values, as shown by the current controversy on the U.S. beef imports.