With the Chinese police tightening their hold of Lhasa, the Tibetan capital seems to have regained a relative, temporary calm. Few can deny, however, this might be the calm before another storm ― a far more violent one ― unless fundamental problems are solved.
What triggered last week's violent clash and how many were killed or injured in it are uncertain yet, as Beijing and the Tibetan government in exile in India are giving conflicting stories to the international community amid a virtual blockade of the foreign press. What is certain is the ongoing turmoil was bound to break out some time or later, in view of China's half-century policy to nearly obliterate the autonomous region's religion and culture. And if it had to happen somehow, this run-up to the Beijing Olympic Games could be good time for Tibetan separatists.
China's adherence to Tibet is understandable ― if not agreeable ― in view of the southwestern region's military and economic importance. If Beijing lets Lhasa go of its tight grip, it could lead to a domino-like splitting of 55 minority peoples away from the People's Republic of China.
Still, what China is doing to Tibet almost makes one recall what imperialist Japan did to Korea and China in the first half of the 20th century. Also, China's ``southwestern project'' to assimilate ancient Tibetan history into its own is an unwelcome reminder of the ``northeastern project,'' which has angered so many Koreans. For Seoul, this can hardly be a ``fire on the other side of the river'' in the context of both history and current politics.
Beijing is advised to take heed of the words of the Dalai Lama, Tibet's exiled spiritual leader, instead of further antagonizing him. The 1989 Nobel Peace Prize laureate called for more autonomy and a non-violent solution to the ongoing trouble, stopping far short of independence or separation. If Chinese leaders push ahead with the colonization of Tibet as it has been over the past few years, the region will likely remain a perennial ticking time bomb, one as big as a quarter of its territory.
Beijing's seeming leniency of the past few days should not be for providing causes for even harsher crackdowns in the future. Otherwise, the 2008 Beijing Olympics, already marred by food safety and environmental problems, may face a crippling blow from human rights issues, as some European leaders have already hinted.
In contrast, Washington's relatively subdued response is rather unusual. The Bush administration might have thought there would not be much to be gained from a strong denunciation of Beijing in a conflict between a giant and far smaller adversary, like the U.S. war in Iraq. Far harder to understand, but not so surprising is Seoul's complete silence, as this country has kept refusing the visit of the Dalai Lama in apparent deference to its largest trade partner and denuclearization coordinator.