By Tong Kim
Only one hundred days after the election of Lee Myung-bak and only one month after the inauguration of his ambitious government, there have emerged some early warning signs for President Lee. We all know the president is diligent and dedicated to his daunting job of running the country. We have seen him issue stern instructions to his staff and his cabinet to effect change and to adopt a "pragmatic" policy approach.
But change in government requires more than the leader's will. When Harry S. Truman was turning over his executive power to Dwight E. Eisenhower in 1953, Truman used to say: ``He'll sit here and he'll say, 'Do this! Do that! And nothing will happen. Poor Ike - it won't be a bit like the Army.''
In a similar vein, the bureaucrats whom the former business executive should work with are the seasoned survivors of regime change who are not like the high-salaried corporate employees who can be fired for unsatisfactory performance. The bureaucrats have a culture of resistance to change. Control of the bureaucrats is one thing and motivating them to work for achieving the president's agenda is a different task that requires the exercise of presidential leadership.
My preferred type of leadership for a modern president is ``transformational leadership," about which I wrote in this column back in October 2006. ``A transformational leader should believe in principles and have a clear vision of the future, an ability to mobilize his people to accept new thinking or a new direction and to adapt to a new environment. In short, transformational leadership should change both the followers and the leader to achieve their common goals.''
A president who was elected with a margin of 5 million votes over his closest challenger, Lee now holds an unusually low approval rating of 50 plus percent ― the lowest in the first two months of inauguration among the democratically elected Korean presidents including Roh Moo-hyun, Kim Dae-jung and Kim Young-sam, and Roh Tae-woo.
The post election honeymoon has short-lived largely because of the people's disappointment with the poor performance of the new government beginning with the zealous transition team that rushed to announce ill-conceived policy decisions only to cancel or put them on hold them shortly afterwards.
Perhaps the most serious red flag for the ``economic president'' is the threatening stagflation stemming from soaring prices of import commodities including oil and food ― Korea depends 100 percent on foreign oil and 70 percent on import food. In a free economy so sensitive to foreign factors, government options for price control or job creation are limited because of the risks involved.
Several nominations of ill-fated candidates for cabinet positions raised ethical questions about the Lee government. President Lee's trademark of ``pragmatism'' would backfire as it did in this case, if it is seen as a compromise of principle ― ethical or political, or if it violates the traditional sentiments of the people. The intrinsic problem with pragmatism is that it could be regarded as a tool of opportunism as it holds that ``truth'' is modified as discoveries are made and is relative to the time and the place.
Seoul's so-called three big dailies, the Chosun, Dong-A and JoongAng, that actively supported Lee Myung-bak's presidential bid have returned to their role of a watcher and critic of the government, as they should in the adversarial relationship of the press with the government in a democratic society.
In the wake of the presidential election, there was no question that the Grand National Party (GNP) would win big in the general elections scheduled for April 8 for the National Assembly, big enough to control the next national legislature with a strong majority if not a two thirds of the total seats that would be enough for constitutional revision.
Now it appears uncertain or doubtful that the ruling GNP would even be able to get a minimum majority. What is certain is the revival of political regionalism that defines the political strongholds for competing parties _ Gyeongsang provinces for the GNP, Jeolla provinces for the United Democratic Party and Chungcheong provinces for the Advancing Liberty Party of former GNP leader Lee Hoi-chang.
The major election battles will be fought in the major metropolitan areas, including Seoul, Incheon and Gyeonggi province, which are relatively free of regional influence as the populations are mixed in terms of regional affiliations. These are the areas where several GNP candidates are confronted with ominous opponents.
Other bad news for the GNP is that its deserters, who failed to get GNP nomination, are entering the race to compete with their replacements, who are mostly newer to politics and are less known. The dissenters are loyal supporters of former GNP leader Park Geun-hye, who unsuccessfully competed with President Lee in the presidential primary. They believe there were eliminated from GNP nomination because of their support for Park.
Former president Kim Young-sam, who strongly supported Lee for his election but saw some of his former aids excluded from nomination, said the GNP nominations were wrong and pledged to ``correct the GNP's bad behavior.'' The former president is still considered to have influence on the voters in Busan, the second largest city in Korea.
A rising younger GNP member demanded President Lee's brother Lee Sang-deuk, a fifth term member and vice-speaker of the National Assembly, give up his nomination, as it might appear nepotistic, while other fifth term members were deprived of nominations.
The president and his ruling party have quickly learned defense is more difficult than offense. When they were an opposition party it was easy to attack the failures of the government. Election politics has not changed in Korea.
The general elections will not be about policy, but the economy is likely to be a major issue, although the new government should not be held accountable for it yet. In the National Assembly elections the government party insists that they should grab legislative control to support the administration, while the opposition parties argue they should take enough seats to rein in unbridled one party rule by an oversized GNP.
Although unlikely, if President Lee fails to win a legislative majority, he will be hard pressed to carry out his policy programs during his term. What's your take?
Tong Kim is former senior interpreter at the U.S. State Department and now a research professor with Ilmin Institute of International Relations at Korea University and an adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins University SAIS. He can be reached at tong.kim8@yahoo.com