By Andy Jackson
Former President Kim Dae-jung, who earned the Nobel Peace Prize largely because of his summit with Kim Jong-il in 2000, has called on President Roh Moo-hyuyn to hold a second summit by the middle of August.
Uri Party Chairman Chung Sye-kyun added his name to a growing chorus of progressive voices calling for an inter-Korean summit on or before the August 15 Liberation Day celebrations.
For his part, Roh says that the summit cannot take place without a resolution of the North Korean nuclear issue. But what constitutes a resolution is open to interpretation. Economic assistance to North Korea has largely continued (although at reduced amounts) despite missile and nuclear tests.
The Roh administration restarted fertilizer shipments in March, despite Pyongyang's failure to close down its nuclear facilities, and is preparing to resume rice aid soon. Given that track record, it would not take too much for Roh to declare that the circumstances were right for a summit.
In an interview with the Korean daily Hankyoreh, Roh said that he would be willing to have a summit meeting with Kim Jong-il even if there were only ``a few months'' left in his term.
That would seem to open the door for a summit as late as November or December, just before the presidential election. It is not clear how the public would take such a ``December surprise'' just before the election.
Members of the main opposition Grand National Party (GNP) believe it is important enough to regard a potential summit meeting with concern. They have declared that the proposed summit is little more than a political move designed to sway voters by showing progress with Roh's engagement policy with North Korea. For its part, the Uri Party strongly backs a pre-election summit.
But a summit would not be the slam dunk that many seem to believe it would be.
Pyongyang agreed to the 2000 summit only after it had secured $500 million from the Hyundai Group, including $100 million of which can only be described as bribes (for which six men were convicted in 2003).
Given that it is already getting hundreds of millions of dollars a year in aid from Seoul, it is anybody's guess what additional demands they would make before agreeing to a summit with Roh.
Then there is the question of location. During the 2000 summit, Kim Jong-il promised to make a return visit to South Korea. Given that he would not receive the same kind of welcome that Kim Dae-jung received in Pyongyang, it is doubtful that Kim Jong-il would agree to honor his pledge.
Gaeseong is being mentioned by various figures, including former unification minister Chung Dong-young in a speech last April, as the best place for a second summit. So the South Korean public may once again see their leader going to the north.
However, the image of the South Korean President once again going to Kim Jong-il, perhaps with cash-in-hand, will likely strike many Korean voters as too sycophantic. At some point the South Korean people will have to see some reciprocity from Pyongyang or it will turn against the engagement policy altogether.
That time might be now. In a recent poll commissioned by The Hankook Ilbo, the sister paper of The Korea Times, 68.8 percent of respondents staid that economic aid to North Korea should be reduced or stopped altogether. At this point, the political goal of a South-North summit may be to change the Korean public's minds about engagement with Pyongyang rather than to live up to the public's expectations.
If the North Korean regime really wants to help progressives out in the upcoming elections, as its recent statements and conduct would seem to indicate, another summit alone will not do the trick.
Even agreeing to a summit without payment up front would not be enough. What is needed is a real concession on nuclear weapons or human rights. Even something as minor as Pyongyang allowing companies in the Gaeseong Industrial Complex to pay their North Korean workers directly rather than sending the money to the North Korean government would help.
President Roh also needs to understand that reality or he may very well be surprised at the reaction of the Korean public when he returns from North Korea.
Andy Jackson teaches American Government in the Lakeland College bridge program at Ansan College, Gyeonggi Province.