US professor sees little change in tough stance on N. Korea
By Kang Seung-woo
Incoming U.S. President Donald Trump is unlikely to give up deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in South Korea despite growing protests from China, according to a U.S. security expert, Thursday.
"It is clear that the nuclear issue in North Korea is not going to disappear. With regard to THAAD, my thinking is ultimately the Trump administration will be supportive of it moving forward," Andrew Martin, the dean of the College of Literature, Science, and the Arts at the University of Michigan, said in an interview in Seoul.
Martin, also a professor of political science and statistics, visited Seoul to attend the school's Seoul Alumni Dinner.
The deployment plan currently faces strong opposition from China which claims the system could hurt its strategic and security interests. The country has made economic retaliations against South Korea ― mostly in business and cultural areas ― to pressure Seoul to scrap the deployment.
"A lot of that turns on the relationship with China and I think that certainly we've seen since the election and I suspect we will see in months to come the U.S.-China relationship will continue to be strained," Martin said.
"So, I suspect Trump ultimately wants to continue with this defensive measure not only within the context of the strained relationship with China, but also because I think he understands its strategic importance of having the missile defense."
As Martin said, incoming U.S. National Security Adviser Michael Flynn met with his South Korean counterpart Kim Kwan-jin in Washington, Tuesday, and the allies confirmed that the missile defense system will be deployed here as planned.
Amid the intensifying retaliations from China, opposition parties insist the THAAD decision should be postponed until the next Korean government begins its term.
Trump's N. Korea policy
As issues regarding the Middle East and the economy are expected to be high on the agenda under the Trump administration, there is speculation that the U.S. government may not keep North Korea's nuclear program on a short leash.
Pyongyang is seeking to modernize its nuclear and missile weapons, as evidenced last year by two nuclear tests and a series of ballistic missile launches in defiance of U.N. resolutions, ratcheting up tensions in the region.
However, Martin said Trump's North Korea policy in substance is not going to change very much.
"He has hired foreign policy hawks on his administration. These are senior people who understand North Korean threats and security context of this region of the world," he said, adding that civil servants in the government are acutely aware of North Korea issues.
"So, I can't just imagine that the U.S. policy change would happen. It would also be very politically difficult for President Trump to change that aspect of our foreign policy."
Reportedly, the incoming U.S. administration considers imposing a "secondary boycott" designed to punish Chinese firms doing business with North Korea as part of an effort to curb the reclusive state's missile and nuclear programs. The punishment is regarded as one of the last-remaining sanction tools against the North that the outgoing Obama administration has been reluctant to use out of concerns over souring relations with China.
Seoul-Washington relations
South Korea has been suffering from a leadership vacuum since President Park Geun-hye was impeached, Dec. 9, and the Constitutional Court is deliberating on the case, which may take up to 180 days.
As a result, the government is facing uncertainty of how to handle President Trump ― an utter stranger to South Korea ― in sharp contrast to Japan whose Prime Minister Shinzo Abe met with Trump in November.
Martin said the leadership vacuum may adversely affect the relations between South Korea and the United States.
"One of the places it makes quite difficult has to do with a crisis situation. If we were (facing a crisis) particularly given the transition is happening in the United States at the same time, I think it could get complicated very quickly," he said.
"It's also the case that the United States I believe is going to want to initiate discussions about trade and about the security and relations with other nations here in Asia."
He added: "It is hard to dance when you don't have a partner."
By Kang Seung-woo
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| Andrew Martin, dean of the College of Literature, Science and the Arts at the University of Michigan |
"It is clear that the nuclear issue in North Korea is not going to disappear. With regard to THAAD, my thinking is ultimately the Trump administration will be supportive of it moving forward," Andrew Martin, the dean of the College of Literature, Science, and the Arts at the University of Michigan, said in an interview in Seoul.
Martin, also a professor of political science and statistics, visited Seoul to attend the school's Seoul Alumni Dinner.
The deployment plan currently faces strong opposition from China which claims the system could hurt its strategic and security interests. The country has made economic retaliations against South Korea ― mostly in business and cultural areas ― to pressure Seoul to scrap the deployment.
"A lot of that turns on the relationship with China and I think that certainly we've seen since the election and I suspect we will see in months to come the U.S.-China relationship will continue to be strained," Martin said.
"So, I suspect Trump ultimately wants to continue with this defensive measure not only within the context of the strained relationship with China, but also because I think he understands its strategic importance of having the missile defense."
As Martin said, incoming U.S. National Security Adviser Michael Flynn met with his South Korean counterpart Kim Kwan-jin in Washington, Tuesday, and the allies confirmed that the missile defense system will be deployed here as planned.
Amid the intensifying retaliations from China, opposition parties insist the THAAD decision should be postponed until the next Korean government begins its term.
Trump's N. Korea policy
As issues regarding the Middle East and the economy are expected to be high on the agenda under the Trump administration, there is speculation that the U.S. government may not keep North Korea's nuclear program on a short leash.
Pyongyang is seeking to modernize its nuclear and missile weapons, as evidenced last year by two nuclear tests and a series of ballistic missile launches in defiance of U.N. resolutions, ratcheting up tensions in the region.
However, Martin said Trump's North Korea policy in substance is not going to change very much.
"He has hired foreign policy hawks on his administration. These are senior people who understand North Korean threats and security context of this region of the world," he said, adding that civil servants in the government are acutely aware of North Korea issues.
"So, I can't just imagine that the U.S. policy change would happen. It would also be very politically difficult for President Trump to change that aspect of our foreign policy."
Reportedly, the incoming U.S. administration considers imposing a "secondary boycott" designed to punish Chinese firms doing business with North Korea as part of an effort to curb the reclusive state's missile and nuclear programs. The punishment is regarded as one of the last-remaining sanction tools against the North that the outgoing Obama administration has been reluctant to use out of concerns over souring relations with China.
Seoul-Washington relations
South Korea has been suffering from a leadership vacuum since President Park Geun-hye was impeached, Dec. 9, and the Constitutional Court is deliberating on the case, which may take up to 180 days.
As a result, the government is facing uncertainty of how to handle President Trump ― an utter stranger to South Korea ― in sharp contrast to Japan whose Prime Minister Shinzo Abe met with Trump in November.
Martin said the leadership vacuum may adversely affect the relations between South Korea and the United States.
"One of the places it makes quite difficult has to do with a crisis situation. If we were (facing a crisis) particularly given the transition is happening in the United States at the same time, I think it could get complicated very quickly," he said.
"It's also the case that the United States I believe is going to want to initiate discussions about trade and about the security and relations with other nations here in Asia."
He added: "It is hard to dance when you don't have a partner."
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