North Korea issues can become crucial to voters in 2017 race


Moon Jae-in, former chairman of the Minjoo Party of Korea	Ban Ki-moon, U.N. secretary-general	Ahn Cheol-soo, former co-leader of the People's Party

By Kang Seung-woo

The issues of North Korea's nuclear weapons program and inter-Korean rapprochement are expected to affect voters' decisions in next year's presidential election, experts say.

Despite the advice and pressure from the international community, Pyongyang has not given up its nuclear ambitions; rather, it has strengthened its commitment to developing nuclear weapons, as evidenced by its two nuclear tests this year, becoming a real threat that presidential candidates cannot disregard.

As of the end of September, Ban Ki-moon, the U.N. secretary-general; Moon Jae-in, a former chairman of the main opposition Minjoo Party of Korea (MPK); and Rep. Ahn Cheol-soo, a former co-leader of the second-largest opposition People's Party, comprise the leading group of potential candidates for the 2017 presidential election.

Although Ban has yet to officially announce his presidential bid, he has often hinted at it and has been courted by the ruling Saenuri Party, as well. Ban, a former foreign minister, is scheduled to complete his U.N. term at the end of this year.

On the back of his 10-year tenure at the U.N., Ban's supporters here have branded him as the best possible candidate for the presidency amid the inter-Korean detente.

North Korea's Hwasong-10 strategic ballistic missile is launched in this photo released by the reclusive regime's mouthpiece Rodong Sinmun, June 23. / Yonhap

And recent public polls have revealed as much ― Ban was well ahead of his rivals, thanks largely to his lifelong diplomatic career, which voters expect would be useful for improving inter-Korean ties, should he become president.

In addition, under the tense situation on the Korean Peninsula, candidates from the conservative or governing camps tend to get the inside track, according to analysts.

"Regarding the North Korean nuclear issue, Ban can adopt a different approach from the hard-line stance of the Park Geun-hye government ― in other words, diplomacy," said Park Won-gon, an international relations professor at Handong Global University.

"He can be more open to inter-Korean dialogue than the current administration, as reflected by his two thwarted attempts to visit North Korea last year."

The professor added that in terms of individual capacity, Ban has the upper hand over Moon because he has access to a global network and has the ability to communicate with global leaders, two advantages he gained while at the U.N.

A diplomatic analyst who wished to remain anonymous also said Ban has a wealth of expertise thanks to his lifelong diplomatic career.

"In that respect, he can understand diplomatic agenda better than the two other candidates," the analyst said.

However, he expressed some uncertainty about whether Ban will take initiative on North Korea issues, especially in turbulent times like today.

"South Korea needs to have a bigger say on issues of the Korean Peninsula, but the Park government is focused heavily on strengthening the ROK-U.S. alliance. We need to brace for possible outer variables because nobody knows whether the U.S. government will maintain a hard-line stance on the North Korean regime down to the wire," he said.

Cho Jin-man, a professor of political science at Duksung Women's University, also said ordinary people believe Ban may be able to handle North Korea issues well just because of his reputation as the U.N. secretary-general.

"Looking closely at his career at the U.N., he has not done anything special about the issues of inter-Korean unification or North Korean nuclear weapons," he said.

"The post of the U.N. chief is more influential than that of a South Korean president, so it remains to be seen whether he could do something impressive with regard to the North, if elected."

The diplomatic analyst gave Moon credit for his past experience of working with North Korea under the previous government.

"Moon has a wealth of experience in inter-Korean affairs," the unnamed analyst said.

As the presidential chief of staff, Moon was one of the key figures involved in the negotiations for the 2007 inter-Korean summit between late President Roh Moo-hyun and late North Korean leader Kim Jong-il.

"He is very familiar with North Korean issues and willing to talk with Pyongyang to address the ongoing political deadlock between South and North Korea," the analyst said.

However, he warned that Moon cannot be successful if he takes the same approach with the North as he did a decade ago.

"It is necessary for Moon to change his North Korea policy under a new situation that is different from the past," the analyst said.

Unlike Ban and Moon, whose pros and cons are more or less already clear to the voters, Ahn has yet to clarify his positions on North Korea issues, according to the watchers.

"During his short career as an assemblyman, Ahn has had no experience in the field, so he is not fully prepared to deal with the issues," the analyst said.

Ahn, a former medical doctor and IT expert, began his political career in 2013 after winning in the by-elections.

Cho echoed the analyst's view, saying, "During the campaign for the April 13 general election, Ahn's People's Party has shown little about its policy for North Korea. Given that, it could be difficult for voters to figure out Ahn's security policy."

He added that should issues, including those related to North Korea, take center stage en route to the presidential election, Ahn would be dealt the hardest blow among the three candidates.

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