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| Hillary Clinton |
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| Donald Trump |
South Korea is facing a myriad of challenges both at home and abroad.
Among them, the biggest downside risk to Korea now is associated with the U.S. presidential election in November.
The outcome of the upcoming election will have far-reaching repercussions for Korea in the next decade, both geopolitically and economically, following the end of President Barack Obama's eight-year presidency.
The latest opinion polls show that a series of slips of the tongue by Republican candidate Donald Trump have tipped the balance in favor of Democrat Hillary Clinton.
However, it is still too early to predict who will be the next inhabitant of the White House. Not one expert had predicted that the billionaire from New York would be the Republican presidential nominee.
Now, the simple but tricky question to Koreans is who should become the master of the White House to sustain the solid Korea-U.S. alliance, the foundation not only for diplomacy and security but also for economic development.
Neither President Barack Obama nor Park Geun-hye wants to jeopardize the status quo in two key aspects — cooperation on policy toward North Korea and continuation of free trade deals.
In this regard, experts say that Clinton would be the least-bad choice for Korea. They believe that Clinton will more likely maintain existing policies while seeking to tweak them to her preference.
"There is no doubt in my mind and in the minds of anyone who understands foreign policy and East Asia that Clinton is the safer and more effective candidate for president, not only for Korea but for the rest of the world," Katharine H. S. Moon, a senior fellow at the Center for East Asia Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution told The Korea Times.
Moon, who also serves as chairwoman of the SK-Korea Foundation in Korea Studies, pointed out that it is very important to look at U.S.-Korea relations as part of the U.S. global agenda and not just single out the Koreas in a vacuum.
"Unlike Trump, Clinton understands geopolitics, has experienced diplomatic successes and failures, and firmly abides by the fact that alliance commitments are above individual presidents," she said. "Brains and experience are on her side."
Tony Michell, managing director of Euro-Asian Business Consultancy, echoed that view, saying, "Undoubtedly Hillary Clinton is the candidate whose strategy toward North and South Korea is likely to be a direct continuation of the present policy."
From the perspective of Koreans, Trump is considered to be unfit for office. He is ignorant of diplomacy and security but overly confident in his own abilities, meaning that he might wield the power of the U.S. presidency in a reckless manner.
Threats to growth, security
"Trump is a political wild card. His talk is of being a proactive change maker whether that means inviting Kim Jong-un to a hamburger at the White House or pulling troops out of South Korea," said Michell, who is also president of Korea Associates Business Consulting.
"For sure his style and that of the South Korean foreign office will not be a good match," he added. "Given his personality a lot would depend on who he selected for Secretary of State and of Defense."
On the economic front, Trump is much more negative against free trade agreements (FTAs) amid rising public anger over job creation and wealth disparity.
This indicates that if Trump is elected, it will affect not only the Korea-U.S. FTA but also put an end to globalization movements, which will deal a blow to Korea's economy which depends heavily on external trade.
"Brexit was the first step in deglobalization. The U.S. presidential election is more important. If Trump is elected, globalization is basically finished," independent economist Andy Xie said.
In a recent report, Moody's Investors Service said that the U.S. presidential election would be the most immediate threat to global growth and security alliances.
"A change in the U.S. policy stance that would contribute to a weakening of the current global trade and security architecture could have a detrimental impact on global confidence and growth," the report noted.
"The most immediate risk in this context is an outcome in the upcoming U.S. presidential elections that ushers in an administration that would renegotiate global trade pacts and security alliances."
Another important point to note is that if Trump is elected, it will heighten policy uncertainty as he is unlikely to carry out what he has promised.
"Trump will not succeed even if he tried to push because the U.S. President alone does not determine foreign and military policy," Moon of Brookings Institution said.
"Even if Trump tries to act like a dictator, his ignorance of issues and the fact that the U.S. itself will continue as a democracy will prevent irrational acts by Trump," she added.
Nobody can surely answer who will win in the November election at this moment. However, whatever happens, it will send a shudder through the Korean Peninsula. Even if Clinton is elected, she is likely to differentiate herself from the Obama administration
Now is the time for Korea to recognize the significance of this election and come up with a contingency plan to prepare for the unwanted developments caused by a new U.S. president.
