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| President Park Geun-hye talks with U.S. President Barack Obama, while arriving for the G20 summit in Hangzhou, China, on Sept. 4. / Joint press corps |
By Kang Seung-woo
South Korea is seeking tougher international sanctions on North Korea in close coordination with the United States and Japan following its fifth nuclear test on Sept. 9.
However, some U.S. analysts caution that such a move to increase pressure without dialogue is not likely to stop Pyongyang from continuing to develop its nuclear weapons capability.
"Pressure without negotiation has failed yet again. Insisting that North Korea take unilateral actions to show it is committed to denuclearization without reciprocal steps by the U.S. to address its security concerns continues to assure that there will be no negotiations," said Leon Sigal, director of the Northeast Asia Cooperative Security Project at the Social Science Research Council.
"Pressuring Pyongyang to negotiate on U.S. terms will not stop it from arming itself. Only negotiations might."
U.S. Naval War College Prof. Terence Roehrig echoed Sigal's view.
"Seoul and Washington need to maintain a strong alliance and robust deterrence posture to demonstrate the price North Korea would pay should it strike the South. Economic pressure is also useful in restraining the growth of North Korean military capabilities, especially its nuclear weapon and ballistic missile programs," he said
"However, given that the reality of a nuclear-armed North Korea is likely to be around for many years, it will also be important for South Korea to continue efforts to engage North Korea if for no other reason than to keep tensions at manageable levels and avoid crises that could escalate into larger and more devastating conflicts."
Peter Hayes, the executive director of the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability, summed it up in a single phrase: "Coercive diplomacy without much coercion and zero diplomacy are unlikely to lead to a desired outcome. All parties need to resume talks."
Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se held trilateral talks with his U.S. and Japanese counterparts John Kerry and Fumio Kishida on the sidelines of the United Nations (U.N.) general assembly in New York, Monday, and adopted a joint statement calling for "even stronger international pressure" on the Kim Jong-un regime to renounce its nuclear ambitions.
Yun is also expected to use his planned keynote speech at a U.N. session to highlight the urgency of the North's evolving nuclear threats and the importance of global unity in tackling them.
Following the North's fourth nuclear test in January and long-range rocket launch the following month, the U.N. Security Council adopted the toughest sanctions resolution to date in March, targeting the country's trade in minerals and tightening banking restrictions. However, the fifth nuclear test that took place just eight months later is causing a skeptical response to the sanctions-only policy to curtail its nuclear weapons program.
US strategic assets
Whenever the North Korean regime ratcheted up tensions on the Korean Peninsula, the United States has responded with sending its advanced strategic assets here to show its "unshakeable commitment" to defend its allies in the region.
Four days after the North detonated another nuclear device, the U.S. Air Force flew two nuclear-capable B-1B bombers over South Korea last Tuesday in a show of strength to the neighboring rogue state. In January, a B-52 bomber also made a flight over South Korea after the fourth nuclear test.
However, the analysts said that such a show of force by the world's largest military superpower could make the situation worse.
"These kinds of demonstrations help to deter North Korea from a major military strike against the South though an invasion by Pyongyang is highly unlikely. Strategic deterrence has been solid for decades and will likely remain so in the years ahead. Flyovers can also provide a degree of reassurance for South Korean leaders and the public," said Roehrig.
"However, it will have little impact on stopping further development of North Korea's nuclear weapons program or deterring lower-level provocations."
Sigal also said, "The flight is intended to reassure allies South Korea and Japan, but it also bolsters the belief in Pyongyang that we are preparing a pre-emptive attack. Recent background briefings out of Seoul only confirm the North's fears."
China's role in NK sanctions
China is regarded as the only country to exert influence on North Korea thanks to its status as the country's chief diplomatic protector and economic benefactor.
In that respect, Beijing has been urged to step into a larger role in international sanctions to press the North into giving up its nuclear program, but it has been reluctant to fully join the moves due to concerns that the sanctions could lead to the North's collapse and the subsequent instability on its border.
Despite backing the March sanctions, speculation runs rampant that China is yet to implement sanctions effectively from the resolution, evidenced by the growing border trade between North Korea and China, according to media reports.
This time, China is expected to retrace its old path as Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his Japanese counterpart in a phone conversation, Thursday, that China opposes imposing unilateral sanctions on North Korea.
"China was not happy with North Korea and condemned the test. Every time North Korea tests, it stirs up regional security in ways that hurt Chinese interests. However, Beijing also blamed the North Korean nuclear program in large part on U.S. policy, and I have always believed there are limits to how far Chinese leaders would be willing to go to place pressure on North Korea. I have a feeling that it may be more difficult to obtain Chinese support for a tougher Security Council resolution this time around than was the case following the January test," Roehrig said.
Hayes also said, "Not much more than what is already in place because the structure of the situation precludes them from taking steps that would destabilize North Korea which is contrary to everyone's interest."
In order to invite China to join the international sanctions, Daniel Sneider, an associate director of research at Stanford's Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, said the United States needs to take advantage of what Beijing does not want to see.
"Since Beijing seems to fear only the U.S. response, it would be useful, in words and actions, to remind them that the only consequence of the North Korea program will be to increase the scale and capability of the American military presence in East Asia," he said.
However, Sigal said South Korea and the United States, not China, are the key figures in addressing the North Korean nuclear issue.
"China's role is not the biggest issue. American and South Korean unwillingness to negotiate is," he said.
"The Chinese will never put enough pressure on the North to jeopardize the regime. The North's response to joint U.S.-Chinese support for more sanctions in the Security Council has been to conduct more weapons tests ― standing up to all the neighbors, no matter how powerful they are."
