By Yi Whan-woo
China and Russia may re-consider implementing U.N. Security Council (UNSC) sanctions on North Korea in response to a decision to set up a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery in South Korea, analysts said Tuesday.
They refuted the Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ claim that issues on UNSC sanctions and THAAD would be be dealt with separately, and that China and Russia have already pledged to implement the punitive measures against Pyongyang faithfully.
The analysts said Beijing and Moscow — veto-wielding UNSC members — can loosen their inspections on Pyongyang and allow the Kim Jong-un regime to exploit loopholes in the sanctions.
“The UNSC sanctions may not gain momentum although I would not say China and Russia will refuse to carry them out,” said Park Won-gon, an international relations professor at Handong University. “In particular, China may interpret clauses outlined by the UNSC in favor of North Korea and give the internationally-isolated state room to breathe.”
Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, agreed.
“The dispute concerning THAAD will continue to draw attention from China and Russia over the UNSC sanctions for the time being,” he said. “Against this backdrop, the UNSC sanctions will inevitably become looser.”
Imposed in March, UNSC Resolution 2270 is aimed at banning North Korea’s international trade in response to its nuclear and missile threats. It still has clauses that are seen as loopholes, such as permission for transactions if they are “determined to be exclusively for livelihood purposes.”
Park said North Korea will capitalize on discontent from China and Russia concerning THAAD to bring “a new Cold War” to the peninsula against South Korea, the U.S. and Japan.
“Pyongyang will seek to widen the gap among the five countries to pursue its nuclear ambitions,’ he said, citing that the five are all members of the six-party talks aimed at North Korea’s denuclearization.
The foreign ministry said it will “not predetermine what measures China will take concerning THAAD.
Concerning diplomatic relations, the analysts said South Korea’s bilateral cooperation with China and Russia also will be at risk.
Seoul and Beijing recently opened working-level dialogue on illegal fishing by Chinese trawlers in South Korean waters amid growing concerns over the depletion of fish stocks in the area.
“I’m afraid the dialogue will slow down for the time being although it will not be scrapped,” Yang said.
Park voiced a similar view over President Park Geun-hye’s Eurasia Initiative, her signature project aimed at establishing a unified logistics and energy network across the Korean Peninsula, Russia and Europe in the long term.
“Any discussion of the Eurasia Initiative will be put aside for now,” he said.
Meanwhile, China and Russia have not joined South Korea, the U.S. and Japan in denouncing North Korea for its test-firing of a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) in defiance of UNSC sanctions. The test took place, Saturday, a day after Seoul and Washington decided to deploy a THAAD battery to deter Pyongyang’s attacks.
An official at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said any move to be taken by Beijing and Moscow concerning the SLBM will be “a barometer to judge whether they are willing to implement the UNSC sanctions.”
Ministry spokesman Cho June-hyuck said that the government expects a response from the UNSC against North Korea over its SLBM test.
The launch, Saturday, took place at the coastal town of Sinpo, South Hamgyong Province at around 11:30 a.m., according to the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS).
It is speculated that the secretive state hurriedly carried out the test to protest the decision to deploy THAAD.
The JCS said the missile only flew 10 kilometers and exploded in midair after being ejected from a 2,000-ton submarine launch tube.
The U.S. Strategic Command also said that the missile was tracked over the sea between South Korea and Japan, where it apparently fell.