By Yi Whan-woo
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will step up provocations in reaction to the United States' first-ever sanctions on him for human rights abuses, analysts said Thursday.
They said tensions will also rise on the Korean Peninsula, claiming the sanctions, imposed Wednesday, will infuriate the young, unpredictable North Korean leader.
"The U.S. sanctions will work as a mechanism that will hold Kim responsible for North Korea's suppression of human rights," said An Chan-il, head of the World Institute for North Korea Studies. "Pyongyang will not tolerate that and it will mobilize all possible means to show its anger for openly humiliating Kim."
Kim Yong-hyun, a professor of North Korean Studies at Dongguk University, said, "The dictatorial regime will ratchet up harsh rhetoric against the U.S." He cited that the dictatorial regime has been paranoid about outside criticism of its leader.
It is expected that key North Korean government organizations, including the newly-created State Affairs Commission, will mobilize an anti-U.S. rally or issue a statement denouncing Washington according to Cheong Seong-chang, a senior researcher at the Sejong Institute.
North Korea is keeping mum after the U.S. Treasury Department placed Kim and 14 North Korean officials and eight entities on its blacklist, Wednesday.
This is the first time North Korea's head of state has been personally sanctioned, and also the first time that any North Korean officials have been blacklisted in connection with rights abuses.
The action was made in line with a recommendation from the U.S. State Department's report on human rights violations in North Korea.
Mandated by Congress, the report named those it held responsible for Pyongyang's state-perpetrated crimes against humanity.
The 14 officials are Ri Yong-mu and O Kuk-ryol, former vice chairmen of the now-defunct National Defense Commission; Hwang Pyong-so, vice chairman of the State Affairs Commission; Choe Pu-il, minister of the People's Security; Pak Yong-sik, minister of the People's Armed Forces; Jo Yon-jun and Kim Kyong-ok, first vice directors of the Organization and Guidance Department; Kang Song-nam and Choe Chang-pong, bureau directors at the Ministry of State Security; Ri Song-chol, counselor at the Ministry of PeopleSecurity; Kim Ki-nam, director at the Propaganda and Agitation Department; Ri Jae-il, first vice director at the Propaganda and Agitation Department; and Cho Il-u and O Chong-kuk, officials at the Reconnaissance General Bureau.
The eight agencies are the Organization and Guidance Department, Ministry of State Security, Ministry of State Security Prisons Bureau, Ministry of People's Security, Ministry of People's Security Correctional Bureau, Propaganda and Agitation Department, Reconnaissance General Bureau and National Defense Commission, which was replaced by the State Affairs Commission during a meeting of the Supreme People's Assembly in Pyongyang last week.
"It really for the first time puts them out in the public domain in a way that they haven't been necessarily before," U.S. State Department spokesman John Kirby said.
Seoul's Ministry of Foreign Affairs echoed a similar view, saying "The measures are tougher than we expected."
Diplomatic sources said the sanctions are seen as the Barack Obama administration's strategy to press North Korea harder for continuing to pursue its nuclear weapons program despite a series of punitive measures. They include the Treasury Department's designation of North Korea as a "primary money laundering concern" in June and the U.N. Security Council's Resolution 2270 imposed in March.
Some analysts, however, say the latest sanctions will not stop North Korea from carrying out military provocations.
"I think Washington only infuriated North Korea and it may conduct a fifth nuclear test and test-fire ballistic missiles in protest," An said.
Jeon Hyun-joon, director of the Northeast Asia Peace and Cooperation Research Institute, agreed on possible military provocations, although he remained skeptical about the nuclear test.
"Pyongyang will certainly try to heighten military tension on the peninsula but the nuclear test card seems unrealistic because it will provoke China, its largest benefactor, as well."
Kim Hyun-wook, a U.S. expert at Korea National Diplomatic Academy, speculated that Washington-Pyongyang ties will remain at their lowest level if Hilary Clinton is elected a president.
"Clinton shares the same view as Obama on North Korea policy and it is even possible that she will be harsher than he was against Pyongyang," he said.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will step up provocations in reaction to the United States' first-ever sanctions on him for human rights abuses, analysts said Thursday.
They said tensions will also rise on the Korean Peninsula, claiming the sanctions, imposed Wednesday, will infuriate the young, unpredictable North Korean leader.
"The U.S. sanctions will work as a mechanism that will hold Kim responsible for North Korea's suppression of human rights," said An Chan-il, head of the World Institute for North Korea Studies. "Pyongyang will not tolerate that and it will mobilize all possible means to show its anger for openly humiliating Kim."
Kim Yong-hyun, a professor of North Korean Studies at Dongguk University, said, "The dictatorial regime will ratchet up harsh rhetoric against the U.S." He cited that the dictatorial regime has been paranoid about outside criticism of its leader.
It is expected that key North Korean government organizations, including the newly-created State Affairs Commission, will mobilize an anti-U.S. rally or issue a statement denouncing Washington according to Cheong Seong-chang, a senior researcher at the Sejong Institute.
North Korea is keeping mum after the U.S. Treasury Department placed Kim and 14 North Korean officials and eight entities on its blacklist, Wednesday.
This is the first time North Korea's head of state has been personally sanctioned, and also the first time that any North Korean officials have been blacklisted in connection with rights abuses.
The action was made in line with a recommendation from the U.S. State Department's report on human rights violations in North Korea.
Mandated by Congress, the report named those it held responsible for Pyongyang's state-perpetrated crimes against humanity.
The 14 officials are Ri Yong-mu and O Kuk-ryol, former vice chairmen of the now-defunct National Defense Commission; Hwang Pyong-so, vice chairman of the State Affairs Commission; Choe Pu-il, minister of the People's Security; Pak Yong-sik, minister of the People's Armed Forces; Jo Yon-jun and Kim Kyong-ok, first vice directors of the Organization and Guidance Department; Kang Song-nam and Choe Chang-pong, bureau directors at the Ministry of State Security; Ri Song-chol, counselor at the Ministry of PeopleSecurity; Kim Ki-nam, director at the Propaganda and Agitation Department; Ri Jae-il, first vice director at the Propaganda and Agitation Department; and Cho Il-u and O Chong-kuk, officials at the Reconnaissance General Bureau.
The eight agencies are the Organization and Guidance Department, Ministry of State Security, Ministry of State Security Prisons Bureau, Ministry of People's Security, Ministry of People's Security Correctional Bureau, Propaganda and Agitation Department, Reconnaissance General Bureau and National Defense Commission, which was replaced by the State Affairs Commission during a meeting of the Supreme People's Assembly in Pyongyang last week.
"It really for the first time puts them out in the public domain in a way that they haven't been necessarily before," U.S. State Department spokesman John Kirby said.
Seoul's Ministry of Foreign Affairs echoed a similar view, saying "The measures are tougher than we expected."
Diplomatic sources said the sanctions are seen as the Barack Obama administration's strategy to press North Korea harder for continuing to pursue its nuclear weapons program despite a series of punitive measures. They include the Treasury Department's designation of North Korea as a "primary money laundering concern" in June and the U.N. Security Council's Resolution 2270 imposed in March.
Some analysts, however, say the latest sanctions will not stop North Korea from carrying out military provocations.
"I think Washington only infuriated North Korea and it may conduct a fifth nuclear test and test-fire ballistic missiles in protest," An said.
Jeon Hyun-joon, director of the Northeast Asia Peace and Cooperation Research Institute, agreed on possible military provocations, although he remained skeptical about the nuclear test.
"Pyongyang will certainly try to heighten military tension on the peninsula but the nuclear test card seems unrealistic because it will provoke China, its largest benefactor, as well."
Kim Hyun-wook, a U.S. expert at Korea National Diplomatic Academy, speculated that Washington-Pyongyang ties will remain at their lowest level if Hilary Clinton is elected a president.
"Clinton shares the same view as Obama on North Korea policy and it is even possible that she will be harsher than he was against Pyongyang," he said.
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