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U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, left, meets with Prime Minister Hwang Kyo-ahn on the sidelines of a forum at International Convention Center in Seogwipo, Jeju Island, Thursday. / Yonhap |
By Kang Seung-woo
Tough challenges lie ahead for U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon if he decides to run in the 2017 presidential election on the Saenuri Party ticket, political analysts said Thursday.
On Wednesday, Ban gave the clearest indication yet of his presidential ambitions, saying that he would contemplate what he would do once he finishes his term and returns home. Ban's U.N. term expires at the end of this year.
Although the longtime bureaucrat does not belong to any political party, loyalists to President Park Geun-hye inside the ruling party have been courting him for their party that is struggling to field a competitive candidate for next year's presidential race.
Critics say his presidential run may violate a U.N. General Assembly resolution stating the U.N. chief's responsibilities after retirement.
The resolution stipulates that a secretary-general should refrain from accepting government positions "immediately" after retirement because confidential information learned in the course of their duties might be a source of embarrassment to other members.
"The resolution can bother Ban in his presidential bid," said Cho Jin-man, a professor of political science at Duksung Women's University.
"It is not legally binding, but should he run for the presidency shortly after retiring from the U.N., he may be criticized for exploiting confidential information obtained while in office to seek his own political gains and invite negative responses from the public as well as political circles."
Previously, some former U.N. secretaries-general have accepted government positions, but they did so in due course.
The U.N.'s first Secretary-General Trygve Lie became Norway's trade and industry minister 11 years after retirement. Its fourth chief, Kurt Waldheim, won Austria's presidential election five years after leaving the U.N. Also, fifth Secretary-General Javier Perez de Cuellar, who stepped down in 1991, was named prime minister of Peru in 2000.
Cho added that if there is overwhelming support for Ban, the issue may be easily overcome, but for now, although he is a leading candidate, he is not untouchable.
In a survey conducted by Realmeter last week, Ban was favored by 38 percent of those polled, but former opposition leader Moon Jae-in trailed him with 34.4 percent, within the margin of error. People's Party Co-Chairman Ahn Cheol-soo had 21.4 percent.
When Ban hinted at a possible presidential run Wednesday, loyalists to President Park welcomed him as a potential candidate for the Saenuri Party, whose high-profile presidential hopefuls, including former Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon and former Gyeonggi Province Governor Kim Moon-soo, had their presidential hopes dashed in the April 13 general election after failing to win National Assembly seats.
However, analysts say support from Park and her loyalists is not enough for the candidacy.
"Although the Park loyalists are a dominant force within the party, it is still suffering a factional feud and President Park is becoming a lame duck, both of which may adversely affect Ban's presidential bid," said Cho.
In last month's election, the ruling party won 122 seats, and was demoted to the second-largest party at the National Assembly. The candidate nominations, led by the pro-Park faction, were pointed to as the main culprit for the defeat. In addition, President Park's approval rating stood at 32.3 percent on Monday.
"It is a problem that the regressive pro-Park members are backing the secretary-general, given that it was harshly judged in the general election for its President-centered politics," said Yoo Chang-sun, a political analyst.
"The faction's support may label Ban as a man of the past, rather than the future."
It is another lingering question whether Ban will survive the political verification from the non-mainstream faction as well as the opposition bloc.
"He has lived as a bureaucrat and largely in diplomatic circles, meaning that it would be difficult for him to endure the political offensive," People's Party floor leader Park Jie-won said in a radio interview, Thursday.