By Kang Seung-woo
President Park Geun-hye appears to be entering an early lame duck phase as she shows no signs of changing her uncompromising governing style, party officials and analysts said Thursday.
Her loyalists are losing ground since the ruling Saenuri Party lost its majority in the general election last month, while opposition parties are increasingly showing displeasure over the way she governs.
Some analysts warn of a challenging path for Park during the remainder of her term, which is slated to end in early 2018. If she fails to address this situation, she could lose her grip on state affairs early, they said.
Concerns are growing that the ruling party could be split due to the deep-rooted feud between the pro-Park faction and other members.
The recent political turmoil over a controversial song symbolizing the 1980 pro-democracy movement represents a wide ideological gap between the Park administration and liberal parties.
The approval rating for her job performance fell sharply in April amid a nasty power struggle inside the ruling party in the lead-up to the general election. Her popularity remains low, standing at 34.5 percent as of Monday, according to local pollster Realmeter.
Analysts said the lame duck phase will gather momentum should the factional feud in the party escalate.
"The red light is on for President Park becoming a lame duck. The key reasons are the Saenuri's ongoing factional feud between loyalists to Park and other lawmakers, and the government's refusal to make the symbolic song an official anthem for the memorial service marking the democratic movement in Gwangju," said Bae Jong-chan, the chief director of political pollster Research and Research.
In last month's election, the Saenuri won 122 seats, becoming the second-largest party at the National Assembly after the Minjoo Party of Korea (MPK) took 123.
In order to regroup the party, floor leader Chung Jin-suk planned to convene two meetings Tuesday to form emergency planning and reform committees. But these were not held due to the lack of a quorum following the pro-Park members' boycott and their refusal to accept Rep. Kim Yong-tae as the reform committee chairman.
Kim is a centrist politician who it is believed would challenge the current vertical relationships between Cheong Wa Dae and the Saenuri Party.
"With the factional dispute deepening, President Park will receive less support from her party and this will make it harder for her to push state affairs," Bae said.
Yoon Hee-woong, a senior researcher at Opinion Live, also said that the ceaseless factional row will not be helpful to Park at all because she may be seen as the head of the problematic faction who is pulling the strings in the standoff.
"The factional feud appears to be reaching a peak. The President may take flak for causing the strife and see her job performance rating further decline," Yoon said.
"The failure to form the committees may serve as symbolic incidents to hasten the arrival of her lame-duck session."
Given the ruling party's 122 seats in the National Assembly, the government badly needs cooperation from the opposition to secure a majority and advance its legislative agenda.
However, the Ministry of Patriots and Veterans Affairs' decision to continue the practice of having a choir sing the symbolic pro-democracy song at the commemorative event and not make it an officials anthem is a case in point showing that Park will stick to her unilateral governing style.
"For the people, the issue is not just about singing the song in unison during the memorial service but about the Park government's willingness to communicate with the opposition bloc that has traditionally represented the Honam region, including Gwangju. However, the decision shows President Park is still devoid of willingness to communicate with opponents, and it may negatively affect her approval rating," said Bae.
Yoon said, "The ministry's decision will lead to stiffening ties between the opposition parties and the government, dashing hopes for cooperation on state affairs from them."
For Park, along with the aforementioned issues, there are other upcoming matters that could add to the talk about her becoming a lame-duck president.
"In June, the draft of the state-authored history textbooks will be released; and she may face a strong backlash from unions over the government's plan to adopt the performance-based salary system for public workers," said Bae.
Right after the general election, the opposition vowed to join forces to block the administration's introduction of the controversial history textbooks for secondary school students. In addition, the nation's two umbrella unions are strongly opposing the merit-based salary system, threatening to go hold a massive strike next month unless the plan is scrapped.
"Next month may be a blue June for Park," Bae said.
President Park Geun-hye appears to be entering an early lame duck phase as she shows no signs of changing her uncompromising governing style, party officials and analysts said Thursday.
Her loyalists are losing ground since the ruling Saenuri Party lost its majority in the general election last month, while opposition parties are increasingly showing displeasure over the way she governs.
Some analysts warn of a challenging path for Park during the remainder of her term, which is slated to end in early 2018. If she fails to address this situation, she could lose her grip on state affairs early, they said.
Concerns are growing that the ruling party could be split due to the deep-rooted feud between the pro-Park faction and other members.
The recent political turmoil over a controversial song symbolizing the 1980 pro-democracy movement represents a wide ideological gap between the Park administration and liberal parties.
The approval rating for her job performance fell sharply in April amid a nasty power struggle inside the ruling party in the lead-up to the general election. Her popularity remains low, standing at 34.5 percent as of Monday, according to local pollster Realmeter.
Analysts said the lame duck phase will gather momentum should the factional feud in the party escalate.
"The red light is on for President Park becoming a lame duck. The key reasons are the Saenuri's ongoing factional feud between loyalists to Park and other lawmakers, and the government's refusal to make the symbolic song an official anthem for the memorial service marking the democratic movement in Gwangju," said Bae Jong-chan, the chief director of political pollster Research and Research.
In last month's election, the Saenuri won 122 seats, becoming the second-largest party at the National Assembly after the Minjoo Party of Korea (MPK) took 123.
In order to regroup the party, floor leader Chung Jin-suk planned to convene two meetings Tuesday to form emergency planning and reform committees. But these were not held due to the lack of a quorum following the pro-Park members' boycott and their refusal to accept Rep. Kim Yong-tae as the reform committee chairman.
Kim is a centrist politician who it is believed would challenge the current vertical relationships between Cheong Wa Dae and the Saenuri Party.
"With the factional dispute deepening, President Park will receive less support from her party and this will make it harder for her to push state affairs," Bae said.
Yoon Hee-woong, a senior researcher at Opinion Live, also said that the ceaseless factional row will not be helpful to Park at all because she may be seen as the head of the problematic faction who is pulling the strings in the standoff.
"The factional feud appears to be reaching a peak. The President may take flak for causing the strife and see her job performance rating further decline," Yoon said.
"The failure to form the committees may serve as symbolic incidents to hasten the arrival of her lame-duck session."
Given the ruling party's 122 seats in the National Assembly, the government badly needs cooperation from the opposition to secure a majority and advance its legislative agenda.
However, the Ministry of Patriots and Veterans Affairs' decision to continue the practice of having a choir sing the symbolic pro-democracy song at the commemorative event and not make it an officials anthem is a case in point showing that Park will stick to her unilateral governing style.
"For the people, the issue is not just about singing the song in unison during the memorial service but about the Park government's willingness to communicate with the opposition bloc that has traditionally represented the Honam region, including Gwangju. However, the decision shows President Park is still devoid of willingness to communicate with opponents, and it may negatively affect her approval rating," said Bae.
Yoon said, "The ministry's decision will lead to stiffening ties between the opposition parties and the government, dashing hopes for cooperation on state affairs from them."
For Park, along with the aforementioned issues, there are other upcoming matters that could add to the talk about her becoming a lame-duck president.
"In June, the draft of the state-authored history textbooks will be released; and she may face a strong backlash from unions over the government's plan to adopt the performance-based salary system for public workers," said Bae.
Right after the general election, the opposition vowed to join forces to block the administration's introduction of the controversial history textbooks for secondary school students. In addition, the nation's two umbrella unions are strongly opposing the merit-based salary system, threatening to go hold a massive strike next month unless the plan is scrapped.
"Next month may be a blue June for Park," Bae said.
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