By Choi Sung-jin
As North Korea enhanced the role of the Workers' Party during its congress last week, the relatively alienated military group may intensify provocations against South Korea, experts here said Thursday.
At a workshop discussing the North's future strategy after the rare congress of the ruling party, organized by the Institute for National Security Strategy (INSS), most participants said there is a high likelihood of military provocations by the reclusive regime and consequent aggravation of the inter-Korean relationship.
As part of his "leadership-enhancing" strategy, Kim Jong-un might also try to strengthen North Korea's nuclear and missile capabilities more eagerly.
"The North Korean military, short of money because of the ongoing economic sanctions on the North, will likely have to mobilize funds through ‘Room 39' of the Workers' Party," said Professor Chung Jiyung of Fudan University in China, referring to the party's secret agency for espionage and fund-raising. "In that case, the military could be subordinated to the party. Dwindling money leads to low morale, which the military may seek to raise through provocations against the South."
Cho Bong-hyun, a fellow at the IBK Economic Research Institute, predicted the North's five-year economic development plan, announced during the congress, could backfire. "The plan is lacking in detailed action plans and does not seem to be implementable," Cho said. "If it fails to produce any visible results, it will come back to the Kim regime like a boomerang."
North Korea's annual economic growth rate, which remains at 1 percent, could fall to -1 or -2 percent, Cho said.
All this will lead to an enhanced personality cult among the people and a reign of terror for the political and military elite in a North Korean version of populism, said Lee Ki-dong, a researcher at INSS, adding the young North Korean leader will feel tempted to resort to sophisticating nuclear and missile capabilities even more than before.
As North Korea enhanced the role of the Workers' Party during its congress last week, the relatively alienated military group may intensify provocations against South Korea, experts here said Thursday.
At a workshop discussing the North's future strategy after the rare congress of the ruling party, organized by the Institute for National Security Strategy (INSS), most participants said there is a high likelihood of military provocations by the reclusive regime and consequent aggravation of the inter-Korean relationship.
As part of his "leadership-enhancing" strategy, Kim Jong-un might also try to strengthen North Korea's nuclear and missile capabilities more eagerly.
"The North Korean military, short of money because of the ongoing economic sanctions on the North, will likely have to mobilize funds through ‘Room 39' of the Workers' Party," said Professor Chung Jiyung of Fudan University in China, referring to the party's secret agency for espionage and fund-raising. "In that case, the military could be subordinated to the party. Dwindling money leads to low morale, which the military may seek to raise through provocations against the South."
Cho Bong-hyun, a fellow at the IBK Economic Research Institute, predicted the North's five-year economic development plan, announced during the congress, could backfire. "The plan is lacking in detailed action plans and does not seem to be implementable," Cho said. "If it fails to produce any visible results, it will come back to the Kim regime like a boomerang."
North Korea's annual economic growth rate, which remains at 1 percent, could fall to -1 or -2 percent, Cho said.
All this will lead to an enhanced personality cult among the people and a reign of terror for the political and military elite in a North Korean version of populism, said Lee Ki-dong, a researcher at INSS, adding the young North Korean leader will feel tempted to resort to sophisticating nuclear and missile capabilities even more than before.
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