Nuke test may be pushed back

North Korea holds its Seventh Workers’ Party Congress at the April 25 House of Culture in Pyongyang, Saturday, in this photo released by the Korean Central News Agency, Sunday. / Yonhap

By Kim Hyo-jin

North Korea is likely to delay conducting a fifth nuclear test in order to promote a conciliatory mood on the Korean Peninsula, analysts said, Sunday.

Pyongyang’s young leader Kim Jong-un has signaled that he is poised to improve relations with the United States and South Korea and will maintain such a stance, dispelling concerns about an imminent nuclear test earlier in the day, according to the North’s Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). His comments were made during the seventh congress of the ruling Workers’ Party that began on Friday.

“Pyongyang would not go for an additional nuclear test for a while. Kim’s speech quelled the controversy,” said Kim Yong-hyun, a North Korean studies professor at Dongguk University.

Koh Yoo-hwan, another North Korean studies professor at the same school, said, “Pyongyang will abstain from threatening with a nuclear test while increasingly nudging the U.S. to open communication channels and make a conciliatory mood with neighboring countries.”

In a speech during the first congress of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea in 36 years, Kim mentioned that his country would “faithfully fulfill its obligation for non-proliferation and strive for global denuclearization.” He also vowed “not to use nuclear weapons first unless its sovereignty is encroached upon.”

Touching upon the external relations, Kim said he is willing to normalize relations with the nations that have been hostile to North Korea, adding that he hopes that ties with South Korea will improve.

The speech came amid mounting speculation that the North could conduct a fifth nuclear test at any time. North Korea conducted a fourth test in January and launched a long-range rocket in the following month, resulting in the strongest ever U.N. sanctions on the isolated country.

According to 38 North, a U.S. website specializing in North Korea, Friday, the reclusive state may be preparing to conduct a nuclear test based on satellite images of the North’s Punggye-ri nuclear test site. It said the images showed vehicle movement there, not often seen except during preparations for a test.

However, the North’s significantly moderated tone fell short of delivering a different stance in its policy on nuclear armament, said the analysts.

“Global denuclearization does not equal denuclearization on the peninsula,” Koh said. “Kim insinuated the possibility of disarmament only if the frame for peace treaty talks with the U.S. is made first; this doesn’t mean that it will take a preemptive step on disarmament on its own.”

Chon Hyun-joon, the head of the Northeast Asia Peace and Cooperation Institute remained skeptical of opening talks over the peace treaty with a lack of the North’s practical changes.

“It largely depends on the U.S. stance now. But I doubt it will reach out to the North when it fails to premise denuclearization,” he said.

Kim’s message appears to seek to drive a wedge between the neighboring states in coordinating their policies toward North Korea, said Hong Hyun-ik, a senior researcher at Sejong Institute.

“It showed room for negotiation, but did not step an inch back from stance on pursuing a nuclear program. It could cause a rift in keeping coordinated international sanctions among countries which interpret Kim’s stance differently,” Hong said.

Pyongyang has long claimed itself to be a nuclear-weapons state and argued that it is seeking to develop a nuclear deterrence against the U.S.’s hostile policy towards it. It has proposed a peace treaty as a means to guarantee the regime and its nuclear weapons, but this has been declined by the South Korea and the U.S.

Regarding inter-Korean relations, the analysts said that it will be difficult to see improvement anytime soon.

“Seoul used up all possible cards for negotiation after taking a denuclearization-first policy, and insists that strengthened sanctions are working,” Chon said. “With Seoul remaining adamant in its stance, a change in the icy inter-Korean relations depends on external factors ― how the other six-party talks countries resolve the nuclear issue.”

Cheong Seong-chang, senior research fellow at the state-run South Korean think tank Sejong Institute, agreed but pointed out that it has a different tone from the previous remarks.

“It still made a significantly positive stance this time. The North might be eyeing long-term relations with the South which relies more on the relations with the new government following the Park Geun-hye’s,” he said. “The landslide victory of the opposition bloc in the general election might have affected Pyongyang’s stance.”