Ahn's popularity baffles parties

Rep. Ahn Cheol-soo, co-chairman of the minor opposition People’s Party, talks to a child during a campaign event in Uijeongbu, Gyeonggi Province, Tuesday, for the April 13 general election. / Yonhap

Increasing popularity could stop Saenuri winning majority

By Kim Hyo-jin

The latest polls show that the minor opposition People’s Party led by Rep. Ahn Cheol-soo is rapidly gaining popularity, making it a powerful challenger to the main two parties in the lead-up to the April 13 ballot.

A surge in popularity for the third party could deal a blow against the ruling Saenuri Party, which is seeking to secure a majority in the 300-seat Assembly, pundits say.

A Realmeter poll conducted in the last week of March found that the party’s approval rating for three consecutive weeks, to stand at 14.8 percent while that of the Saenuri Party fell by seven percentage points from 44.1 to 37.1 percent.

Moreover, a Gallup survey conducted in the same period showed that its approval rating stood at 12 percent, a rise to double digits in approximately two months, after public attention reached its peak when the party was launched in February.

Some view that the trend will work in favor of the Saenuri Party because forming an alliance in the opposition bloc is becoming more unlikely.

“Ahn would further distance himself from the idea of putting a single candidate with the main opposition Minjoo Party of Korea (MPK) while witnessing the party’s improved standing,” said Choi Chang-ryol, a professor of Yongin University. “A split of votes among opposition supporters will inevitably benefit the ruling party in winning a majority seat in the upcoming polls.”

But rising support for Ahn’s party may dent the Saenuri Party’s chance of securing an overwhelming victory, say others.

“We should not overlook that support in People’s Party is also based on that of conservative voters,” said Yoon Tae-gon, a senior political analyst at Moa Agenda Strategy.

“The People’s Party, which launched itself as a centrist reformist party, appears to have lured a group of conservative voters disappointed at the Saenuri Party after its nomination row.”

The local pollsters concluded that the fall in the ruling party’s recent approval rating was a significant shift among conservative and centrist voters.

In the face of its shrinking approval rating, the Saenuri Party adjusted the number of seats it expects to win from 180 to 150.

The party officials said that the prospect of securing a majority of seats in the April ballots is dismal according to a survey conducted by a think tank, Yeouido Institute.

“We are way behind the goal of securing a majority of seats,” said Rep. Kweon Seong-dong, the party’s election strategy director, in a radio interview, Tuesday, adding that the party held an emergency meeting a day earlier, amid deepening concerns. “It was evident in the intra-party survey, indicating that an increasing number of traditional voters regard us negatively and could give up voting entirely.”

In contrast, the favorable polls gave a psychological boost to the People’s Party. It set a lofty goal of securing 40 seats including 10 seats sought through the proportional representative system.

“The ruling party is intentionally fueling uneasiness among its supporters to ensure votes for the party,” Choi explained. “But even if that factor is considered, it seems true that it has growing fears about negative voters’ sentiment.”

With the three-party contest creating uncertainty regarding the election result, the rival parties stepped up campaigning in a swing vote region, the Chungcheong Provinces, Tuesday.

With 27 seats up for grabs, the MPK leads mostly in Daejeon while the Saenuri Party leads in non-metropolitan areas, North and South Chungcheong Provinces.

Saenuri Party Chairman Kim Moo-sung voiced criticism against the MPK, saying that it is an incompetent party, stalling economic bills and is indifferent to public concerns about security. His counterpart MPK’s Kim Chong-in attacked the ruling party for causing the economy to stagnate.

Meanwhile, Ahn of the People’s Party continues to campaig in Seoul and Gyeonggi Province, seeking to transmit momentum it gained mostly in the southwestern Jeolla Provinces to the metropolitan areas.