By Jun Ji-hye
South Korea and the United States launched working-level talks, Friday, on the deployment of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery here.
However, experts say the discussions face a number of obstacles such as resistance from China as well as residents nearby any site of the deployment.
The Ministry of National Defense said the two countries signed terms of reference of the Joint Working Group (JWG) at 10 a.m., which held its first meeting later in the day. The signing and the first meeting came about a month after the allies announced their decision on Feb. 7 to begin THAAD talks in the face of growing threats from North Korea.
The JWG is tasked with discussing details of the deployment including possible locations and risks to people’s safety and health, and the environment as well as how the allies will share the cost.
A high-ranking ministry official said the talks on THAAD were part of efforts to improve the allies’ defense posture against missile threats from the reclusive regime.
“THAAD is a useful and smart weapon,” he said, declining to be named. “The system has military utility and will contribute to defending the Republic of Korea.”
But the outlook for the actual deployment is murky, given that the THAAD issue is linked to a variety of conflicting issues ranging from reactions from neighboring countries including China and Russia, along with possible safety and environmental threats from its AN/TPY-2 radar, beyond the system’s pure military purpose of detecting and destroying North Korean missiles.
The failure of the ministry official to give a definite answer to a question about the timing of the deployment also amplifies uncertainties. His only answer to the question was “nobody knows what may happen in the future.”
In particular, experts raise concerns that the talks could foster resistance from China and Russia, both permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), and this would weaken the two nations’ willingness to implement a recently adopted new U.N. resolution that contains harsh sanctions against the North.
Beijing and Moscow oppose THAAD deployment on Korean soil, out of concerns over the expansion of American influence in Northeast Asia, citing it as a core asset of the U.S. global multi-layered missile defense program.
The signing of the terms of reference of the JWG was originally scheduled for Feb. 23, but this was abruptly postponed apparently due to talks between the U.S. and China at the time on sanctions against Pyongyang’s nuclear test and launch of a long-range rocket.
At the time, it was speculated that China and the U.S. apparently made a deal during which the former was believed to have asked the latter to withdraw its plan to deploy THAAD in return for Beijing’s cooperation in producing more effective sanctions against Pyongyang.
“China and Russia perceive THAAD as more of a threat to their national security than the North Korea nuclear issue does,” said Cheong Seong-chang, a senior research fellow at the Sejong Institute. “If it is decided to deploy THAAD on the peninsula, the two countries may not actively cooperate in implementing sanctions against the North, or refuse to do so.”
Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, also told reporters that THAAD is not a simple matter between South Korea and the U.S., noting that, “The government needs to take reactions from neighboring countries including China and Russia into consideration.”
In response to such concerns, the ministry official said THAAD was not linked to the U.N. sanctions.
“The sanctions were agreed on through sufficient discussion between UNSC members. I believe that the sanctions will be faithfully implemented in accordance with their agreement,” he said.
But critics say the ministry apparently took a step backward following its awareness of resistance from neighboring countries, citing that it stated in a press release that the allies will discuss the “feasibility” of THAAD deployment, rather than simply saying deployment.
Since its announcement on discussing THAAD deployment, Feb. 7, the ministry had so far stuck to a position that the system should be deployed here at the earliest possible date.
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