Concerns growing over Beijing's possible retaliation
By Kang Seung-woo
South Korea's relations with China are entering a crucial phase with Seoul leaning toward accepting the deployment of the terminal high-altitude area defense (THAAD) anti-ballistic missile system.
Frustrated by Beijing's lukewarm stance on a series of provocations by North Korea, the Park Geun-hye government has pushed for THAAD deployment in South Korea.
Seoul-Beijing ties, which have evolved into a strategic partnership, could turn sour because the THAAD talks are underway ― and Beijing may use its position as Seoul's No. 1 trading partner to thwart the plan.
"For some time, China will slam South Korea and the United States for a possible THAAD deployment because it has steadily opposed the anti-missile defense system," said Park Won-gon, an international relations professor at Handong University.
Cheong Seong-chang, a senior fellow of the Sejong Institute, said, "Despite a recent phone conversation between President Park and Chinese President Xi Jinping (on Feb. 5), the talks over the THAAD deployment have turned the clock back."
After the South Korean government announced last week that it will hold negotiations with Washington about the U.S. Forces Korea (USFK)'s plan to deploy a THAAD battery on Korean soil, China has urged Seoul to withdraw the plan.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his Korean counterpart Yun Byung-se in Munich, Germany on Thursday that the matter of possible deployment of THAAD on the Korean Peninsula is detrimental to the proper handling of the current situation by related parties and the maintenance of regional peace and stability.
"Obviously it will undermine the strategic security interests of China, and China shows grave concern about it," he was quoted by the Chinese foreign ministry.
Given that China is Pyongyang's economic lifeline and political backer, President Park has made efforts to improve the relationship with Beijing, hoping that the Chinese government will curb the North's pursuit of nuclear weapons. President Park even attended China's massive military parade in September to mark the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II, something that the leaders of other U.S. allies did not do.
However, such efforts have come to nothing because China is doing little thing to punish the Kim Jong-un regime for its Jan. 6 nuclear test and Feb. 7 long-range rocket launch, both of which violated United Nations resolutions.
China's possible retaliation
Amid growing protests from China, some are concerned whether the country may press the South by way of economic retaliation as occurred during the "garlic trade dispute" in 2000.
At that time, Seoul imposed a 315-percent tariff on cheap Chinese garlic to protect its farmers, but the government later cut the tariff to 30 percent and agreed to import 32,000 tons of Chinese garlic after China retaliated by banning shipments of mobile phones and polyethylene from the South.
There are mixed reactions on the prospects of the issue.
"Although the Chinese government is protesting against the THAAD deployment at a diplomatic level during its lunar New Year, it is expected to begin to take retaliatory actions from now," Cheong said, adding that the nation's cultural industry catching on among Chinese as well as trade may be adversely affected.
However, Bong Young-shik, a senior research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, said that should China opt for economic retaliation and that such a move may meet a headwind in terms of security.
"China protests against THAAD out of concerns that it means the ROK-U.S. alliance will develop into a bigger regional strategy focusing on encircling China in Northeast Asia," he said.
"However, a possible THAAD-triggered economic retaliation will ask for trouble."
Park Won-gon said that China's current sluggish economy may prevent the government from taking retaliatory action, as well.
"The two nations have close economic ties, so economic retaliation may also affect its own economy negatively," he said.
Meanwhile, the two nations' vice foreign ministers will meet in Seoul today to discuss pending issues between them, according to the South Korean foreign ministry.
First Vice Foreign Minister Lim Sung-nam will sit down with his Chinese counterpart Zhang Yesui in the 7th Korea-China Strategic Dialogue.
Zhang is the first senior Chinese official to visit South Korea since the North conducted its fourth nuclear test.
They are highly expected to discuss sensitive issues such as the THAAD deployment and a rift over the level of punishment against the North.
By Kang Seung-woo
South Korea's relations with China are entering a crucial phase with Seoul leaning toward accepting the deployment of the terminal high-altitude area defense (THAAD) anti-ballistic missile system.
Frustrated by Beijing's lukewarm stance on a series of provocations by North Korea, the Park Geun-hye government has pushed for THAAD deployment in South Korea.
Seoul-Beijing ties, which have evolved into a strategic partnership, could turn sour because the THAAD talks are underway ― and Beijing may use its position as Seoul's No. 1 trading partner to thwart the plan.
"For some time, China will slam South Korea and the United States for a possible THAAD deployment because it has steadily opposed the anti-missile defense system," said Park Won-gon, an international relations professor at Handong University.
Cheong Seong-chang, a senior fellow of the Sejong Institute, said, "Despite a recent phone conversation between President Park and Chinese President Xi Jinping (on Feb. 5), the talks over the THAAD deployment have turned the clock back."
After the South Korean government announced last week that it will hold negotiations with Washington about the U.S. Forces Korea (USFK)'s plan to deploy a THAAD battery on Korean soil, China has urged Seoul to withdraw the plan.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his Korean counterpart Yun Byung-se in Munich, Germany on Thursday that the matter of possible deployment of THAAD on the Korean Peninsula is detrimental to the proper handling of the current situation by related parties and the maintenance of regional peace and stability.
"Obviously it will undermine the strategic security interests of China, and China shows grave concern about it," he was quoted by the Chinese foreign ministry.
Given that China is Pyongyang's economic lifeline and political backer, President Park has made efforts to improve the relationship with Beijing, hoping that the Chinese government will curb the North's pursuit of nuclear weapons. President Park even attended China's massive military parade in September to mark the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II, something that the leaders of other U.S. allies did not do.
However, such efforts have come to nothing because China is doing little thing to punish the Kim Jong-un regime for its Jan. 6 nuclear test and Feb. 7 long-range rocket launch, both of which violated United Nations resolutions.
China's possible retaliation
Amid growing protests from China, some are concerned whether the country may press the South by way of economic retaliation as occurred during the "garlic trade dispute" in 2000.
At that time, Seoul imposed a 315-percent tariff on cheap Chinese garlic to protect its farmers, but the government later cut the tariff to 30 percent and agreed to import 32,000 tons of Chinese garlic after China retaliated by banning shipments of mobile phones and polyethylene from the South.
There are mixed reactions on the prospects of the issue.
"Although the Chinese government is protesting against the THAAD deployment at a diplomatic level during its lunar New Year, it is expected to begin to take retaliatory actions from now," Cheong said, adding that the nation's cultural industry catching on among Chinese as well as trade may be adversely affected.
However, Bong Young-shik, a senior research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, said that should China opt for economic retaliation and that such a move may meet a headwind in terms of security.
"China protests against THAAD out of concerns that it means the ROK-U.S. alliance will develop into a bigger regional strategy focusing on encircling China in Northeast Asia," he said.
"However, a possible THAAD-triggered economic retaliation will ask for trouble."
Park Won-gon said that China's current sluggish economy may prevent the government from taking retaliatory action, as well.
"The two nations have close economic ties, so economic retaliation may also affect its own economy negatively," he said.
Meanwhile, the two nations' vice foreign ministers will meet in Seoul today to discuss pending issues between them, according to the South Korean foreign ministry.
First Vice Foreign Minister Lim Sung-nam will sit down with his Chinese counterpart Zhang Yesui in the 7th Korea-China Strategic Dialogue.
Zhang is the first senior Chinese official to visit South Korea since the North conducted its fourth nuclear test.
They are highly expected to discuss sensitive issues such as the THAAD deployment and a rift over the level of punishment against the North.
