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Increased movement of equipment, personnel detected at launch site
By Kang Seung-woo
North Korea may test a long-range ballistic missile soon amid increased activity at its northwestern launch site, sources and military officials said Thursday.
Their analysis came after Japan's Kyodo News reported that Pyongyang may be preparing for a missile launch in a week or so, citing an unnamed government source.
"We have detected increased movement of equipment and personnel at the Tongchang-ri launch site," an intelligence source said.
"We estimate that the North can carry out a missile launch without a notice at any time after it extended its missile launch pad at the facility."
Defense Ministry spokesman Kim Min-seok also said the North had always fired a long-range missile ahead of a nuclear test in the past, but it did not do it before the Jan. 6 nuclear test. The military was therefore concerned that the North would launch a missile afterwards.
According to intelligence authorities, late last year, the North successfully finished upgrading the Sohae Satellite Launching Station at Tongchang-ri, raising the height of the gantry tower on the launch pad to accommodate a wider range of missiles. Experts estimate the upgrade could theoretically enable the North to launch a missile that could travel 13,000 kilometers, enough to strike the U.S. mainland.
The North also has laid railroad lines from an assembly building to the launch pad as part of efforts to modernize the facility, and placed a cover over the pad last year to evade surveillance from spy satellites.
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However, the spokesman said the North had yet to declare a no-sail zone, a notification necessary before a long-range missile launch that affects other parts of the world.
"A no-sail zone is required internationally because North Korea's past long-range missiles or rockets flew to the east coast of the Philippines," Kim said. "But I have not heard anything so far on that."
He added that the military was keeping close tabs on any possible launch.
Amid the growing possibility, South Korea and the U.S. have urged the reclusive state to refrain from any actions threatening regional stability.
"We urge North Korea to refrain from actions and rhetoric that threaten regional peace and security and focus instead on taking concrete steps toward fulfilling its international commitments and obligations," said Navy Cmdr. Bill Urban, a spokesman of the U.S. Defense Department.
"We are concerned that additional North Korean provocations could heighten tensions, lead to a cycle of escalation and threaten the peace and stability on the Peninsula."
Kim also said, "The South Korean government's stance on the issue is that the North must not carry out such a provocation that violates United Nations Security Council resolutions."
The resolutions prevent the North from developing nuclear weapons and using ballistic missile technology.
The North last tested a long-range missile in December 2012, allegedly putting an object into orbit. It also allegedly tested a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) three times last year, according to the defense ministry.
The North is seeking to master technology to miniaturize a warhead to fit atop a ballistic missile that can reach the U.S. or other distant targets.
