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Tue, March 28, 2023 | 01:35
Foreign Affairs
Summit offers chance for dialogue with NK
방미 朴대통령에 美의 궁금증…"韓-中 관계 실체는 무엇인가"
Posted : 2015-10-14 16:00
Updated : 2015-10-15 18:40
Kang Seung-woo
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President Park Geun-hye reviews an honor guard upon arrival at Andrews Air Force Base on the outskirts of Washington, D.C., Wednesday. On her right is U.S. Chief of Protocol Peter Selfridge. Park is scheduled to hold a summit with U.S. President Barack Obama at the White House, Saturday (local times). / Yonhap
President Park Geun-hye reviews an honor guard upon arrival at Andrews Air Force Base on the outskirts of Washington, D.C., Wednesday. On her right is U.S. Chief of Protocol Peter Selfridge. Park is scheduled to hold a summit with U.S. President Barack Obama at the White House, Saturday (local times). / Yonhap

By Kang Seung-woo


WASHINGTON — President Park Geun-hye and U.S. President Barack Obama need to use their summit as leverage to bring North Korea back into dialogue, according to analysts.

Park arrived in Washington, D.C., Wednesday, for a four-day state visit and is scheduled to hold a summit with Obama at the White House, Saturday (local times). The two heads of state are expected to focus on the North Korean nuclear issue.

"The Obama and Park administrations need to give their successors better circumstances than they inherited, but so far they have completely failed to do so regarding North Korea," said Van Jackson, a professor at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Honolulu.

"So alliance policy should focus on measures that promote stability on the Korean Peninsula — talks between North and South Korea help keep the situation stable, and remove the crisis mood that North Korea uses to invest so heavily in its nuclear and missile programs."

Jackson, a former Pentagon strategist, added that if there is a crisis-free atmosphere on the Korean Peninsula, Park and Obama are likely to issue a slightly toned down joint statement to bring the North back to dialogue.

"I think that's probably the best move for now," he said.

Terence Roehrig, a professor at the U.S. Naval War College, said that dialogue remains an important goal and it is important to continue trying.

"Seoul and Washington must stick to their goal of denuclearization, but not keep it as a precondition for talks," he said.

Although China and North Korea want an unconditional return to the long-stalled six-party denuclearization talks, the U.S. government insists that the North must show sincerity before the negotiations resume.

"Dialogue does not mean compromising on important goals and principles, but it can be a way of at least reducing tension on the peninsula," Roehrig said.

The recent situation on the Korean Peninsula is raising speculation that Park and Obama may adopt a conciliatory approach toward the North because it did not carry out a highly-anticipated launch of a long-range ballistic missile on Oct. 10, the foundation day of its ruling Workers' Party.

In addition, Kim did not mention its nuclear weapons program in his speech, but instead stressed improving living standards of his people.

"A joint statement by the two presidents will likely emphasize the necessity for credible and authentic talks with North Korea on denuclearization as the pathway to achieving tension reduction, improved U.S.-North Korea relations and eventual peace on the Korean Peninsula," said Scott Snyder, director on U.S.-Korea policy at the Council on Foreign Relations.

"If North Korea had tested or does test in the future, one would expect a far more harsh and critical joint statement along with steps to further punish North Korea under existing UNSC resolutions."

Meanwhile, Park began her itinerary by visiting the Korean War Veterans Memorial to honor deceased Korean War veterans, followed by a trip to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. as part of the government's efforts to expand cooperation with the United States in space exploration.


방미 朴대통령에 美의 궁금증…"韓-中 관계 실체는 무엇인가"

박근혜 대통령이 지난달 3일 베이징의 톈안먼 성루에서 시진핑 중국 국가주석과 나란히 서서 중국군의 열병식을 관람하는 장면에 '워싱턴에서는 손을 부들부들 떠는 사람들이 꽤 있었다'(빅터 차 조지타운데 교수), '일부 미국 관리들은 눈썹을 치켜 올렸다'(스콧 스나이더 미국외교협회(CFR) 선임연구원)는 등의 전언이 많다.

오는 16일 버락 오바마 대통령과 한미 정상회담을 향해 14일 방미 일정을 시작한 박근혜 대통령을 향한 미국 정부 안팎의 시선이 어디에 쏠리고 있는지 짐작케 하는 대목이다.

스나이더 연구원은 13일(현지시간) CFR 사이트에 올린 글을 통해 '박 대통령은 베이징을 향한 매력공세의 이유를 미국 청중에게 설명할 필요가 있다'고 주장했다. 

박 대통령의 열병식 참석으로 인해 한미간에 심각한 알력이 있는 것은 아니고 미국의 정책수립가들이 한국의 외교정책을 '제로-섬' 관점에서 보는 것도 아니며, 도리어 한미동맹이 한국의 대중 대처 능력을 보강해주고 한국이 중국의 영향권으로 끌려들어가는 것을 막아주고 있다고 그는 전제했다.

그럼에도 박 대통령의 열병식 참석이 '본의 아니게 그 반대의 메시지'를 준 만큼 '해명'의 필요성이 있다는 것이다.

이에 반해 부시 행정부 시절 백악관 국가안보회의(NSC) 아시아담당 보좌관을 지낸 빅터 차 교수는 손을 부들부들 떤 사람들도 있었지만, 반대로 '박 대통령이 중국을 북한으로부터 떼어내 한국 쪽으로 끌고 오고 있는 것'으로 해석하는 전문가들도 있다고 소개했다. 전통적으로 시진핑 옆에는 북한의 지도자가 서 있어야 하는데, 그 자리를 박 대통령이 차지했다는 것이다.

8일자 포린 어페어스에 기고한 '한국의 새로운 3자 외교'라는 글에서 차 교수는 두 견해 모두 '냉전시대의 2차원적 단견'이라고 물리치고, 박 대통령이 한반도에 관해 '중국의 전략적 사고를 바꾸고, 미국의 관심을 끌어들여 궁극적으로는 전례 없는 동북아 협력체제를 구축'하기 위해 3차원의 외교정책 전략을 구사하는 것이라고 분석했다.

이를 '외교 2.0'이라고 부르는 그는 박 대통령의 중국 전승절 참석은 한반도 문제에 관한 한국, 미국, 중국간 3자 협의체제를 만들려는 외교의 일환이었으며, 특히 올해말이나 내년초 한·미·중 정상간 최초의 3자협의를 갖는 것을 한국 정부가 희망하고 있다고 주장했다.

'공식 일정이 발표된 것은 아니지만' 11월 터키에서 열리는 주요 20개국(G-20) 정상회의나 12월 프랑스에서 열리는 기후변화 당사국 총회, 내년 3월 워싱턴에서 열리는 핵안보정상회의 등이 '3자회의가 열릴 수 있는' 기회라고 그는 말했다.

더 나아가 그는 한·미·중 3자협의에서는 한반도 문제와 관련, 우선순위를 조율하고 역할을 분담하는 논의가 이뤄질 수 있다며 핵무기 안전 확보, 난민 사태 방지, 현지 안정화 3가지를 역할분담 과제로 지목했다. 명시적으로 밝히지는 않았지만 북한 급변사태를 전제한 것으로 보인다.

빅터 차 교수와 스나이더 연구원 모두 박 대통령의 외교구상이나 미국의 아시아 재균형 정책이 성공하려면 한국과 일본의 협력이 관건이라고 강조, 워싱턴 입성을 앞둔 박 대통령에 대한 미국 정부 안팎의 궁금증에 더한 기대가 어디에 있는지 새삼 보여줬다.

차 교수는 한·미·중 3자 대화를 박 대통령의 동북아평화협력구상(NAPCI)과도 연계시키면서 이러한 새로운 외교 비전의 실현은 '한일 양자관계의 개선 없이는' 불가능하다고 주장했다.

스나이더 연구원도 미국이 한일관계의 안정을 추구해온 사실을 상기시키며 한국과 일본간 '정상적이고 생산적인 관계 회복이 미국의 아시아 재균형의 일부로서 특히 중요하다'고 강조했다. (연합뉴스)
Emailksw@ktimes.com Article ListMore articles by this reporter
 
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