NK feared to have 100 nukes by 2020
By Kang Seung-woo
Steps should be taken to deal with a power vacuum in North Korea considering the growing uncertainty about its future, an analyst at a state research center said Wednesday.
His call takes an even more ominous tone when combined with the latest prediction by a U.S. think tank that the reclusive country may have as many as 100 nuclear weapons by 2020.
"North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has led the impoverished nation on the rationing of privileges among the elite since he came to power in December 2011," Kim Jin-ha, director of the Center for International and Strategic Studies at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said at a forum in Seoul.
He pointed out the rationing of privileges has been made harder by the North's isolation from the international community due to its development of nuclear weapons.
"The North has little ability to deal with an emergency or crisis situation if its leader loses his control," Kim said. "Extreme confrontation between the elite and the alienated and destitute public could result in anarchy."
He stressed the need for the South Korean government to seek an effective contingency plan in the event of the collapse of the North Korean regime.
"The existence of those who pursue democracy and market reform is a precondition for the North's full-scale yet stable transition," he said.
The government downplayed the likelihood of such a scenario.
"A state of anarchy will naturally follow the collapse of the leadership, but there could also be an interim military government," said a defense ministry official. "However, the worst case scenario is a possible intervention of China in the North, as this would turn upside down the post-war order of Northeast Asia."
Meanwhile, Joel Wit, the chief analyst of 38 North that specializes in North Korea affairs, said Tuesday that the North may have 100 atomic bombs by 2020.
The U.S. expert put forward three scenarios of the North's nuclear arsenal expansion, with the minimal growth scenario forecasting the stockpile to grow to 20 weapons and the moderate growth scenario predicting an arsenal of 50 weapons by 2020.
Should the North remain on its current trajectory, the moderate growth scenario would be the case, he said.
Separately, another U.S. think tank said Tuesday that the South Korean military is significantly smaller than that of North Korea.
In addition, it said the reclusive country will neither give up its nuclear weapons nor return to the six-party talks for denuclearization.
The Heritage Foundation released its annual "Index of U.S. Military Strength" Tuesday and compared the military strength of the two Koreas.
According to the report, South Korean military manpower was 639,000, with 3.2 million reserve troops, but the North has 1.19 million people in its military, along with 7.7 million in reserve.
As for tanks, the South was outnumbered by the North 4,200-2,400, and the North has 4,800 rocket launchers compared to the South's 200.
In 13 comparison categories, the South edged the North in terms of only armored vehicles and helicopters.
"South Korea has about half as many active-duty troops as North Korea, and the size disadvantage carries over to many categories of military equipment and vehicles," the report said.
Citing the North's long-range missile launch in December 2012 and third nuclear test in February 2013, it said, "These events clearly signaled that new leader Kim Jong-un had no intention either of resuming North Korea's six-party talks pledge to denuclearize or of abiding by U.N. resolutions that require a cessation of Pyongyang's nuclear and missile programs."
The report also said that the North had mastered the miniaturization and warhead design that may enable the North to attack the U.S. mainland.
"The recovered North Korean missile (from the December 2012 launch) provided tangible proof that North Korea was building the missile's cone at dimensions for a nuclear warhead, durable enough to be placed on a long-range missile," it said.
The report also said that Pyongyang has deployed approximately 800 Scud short-range tactical ballistic missiles, 300 Rodong medium-range missiles, and 50 Musudan intermediate-range ballistic missiles.
By Kang Seung-woo
Steps should be taken to deal with a power vacuum in North Korea considering the growing uncertainty about its future, an analyst at a state research center said Wednesday.
His call takes an even more ominous tone when combined with the latest prediction by a U.S. think tank that the reclusive country may have as many as 100 nuclear weapons by 2020.
"North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has led the impoverished nation on the rationing of privileges among the elite since he came to power in December 2011," Kim Jin-ha, director of the Center for International and Strategic Studies at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said at a forum in Seoul.
He pointed out the rationing of privileges has been made harder by the North's isolation from the international community due to its development of nuclear weapons.
"The North has little ability to deal with an emergency or crisis situation if its leader loses his control," Kim said. "Extreme confrontation between the elite and the alienated and destitute public could result in anarchy."
He stressed the need for the South Korean government to seek an effective contingency plan in the event of the collapse of the North Korean regime.
"The existence of those who pursue democracy and market reform is a precondition for the North's full-scale yet stable transition," he said.
The government downplayed the likelihood of such a scenario.
"A state of anarchy will naturally follow the collapse of the leadership, but there could also be an interim military government," said a defense ministry official. "However, the worst case scenario is a possible intervention of China in the North, as this would turn upside down the post-war order of Northeast Asia."
Meanwhile, Joel Wit, the chief analyst of 38 North that specializes in North Korea affairs, said Tuesday that the North may have 100 atomic bombs by 2020.
The U.S. expert put forward three scenarios of the North's nuclear arsenal expansion, with the minimal growth scenario forecasting the stockpile to grow to 20 weapons and the moderate growth scenario predicting an arsenal of 50 weapons by 2020.
Should the North remain on its current trajectory, the moderate growth scenario would be the case, he said.
Separately, another U.S. think tank said Tuesday that the South Korean military is significantly smaller than that of North Korea.
In addition, it said the reclusive country will neither give up its nuclear weapons nor return to the six-party talks for denuclearization.
The Heritage Foundation released its annual "Index of U.S. Military Strength" Tuesday and compared the military strength of the two Koreas.
According to the report, South Korean military manpower was 639,000, with 3.2 million reserve troops, but the North has 1.19 million people in its military, along with 7.7 million in reserve.
As for tanks, the South was outnumbered by the North 4,200-2,400, and the North has 4,800 rocket launchers compared to the South's 200.
In 13 comparison categories, the South edged the North in terms of only armored vehicles and helicopters.
"South Korea has about half as many active-duty troops as North Korea, and the size disadvantage carries over to many categories of military equipment and vehicles," the report said.
Citing the North's long-range missile launch in December 2012 and third nuclear test in February 2013, it said, "These events clearly signaled that new leader Kim Jong-un had no intention either of resuming North Korea's six-party talks pledge to denuclearize or of abiding by U.N. resolutions that require a cessation of Pyongyang's nuclear and missile programs."
The report also said that the North had mastered the miniaturization and warhead design that may enable the North to attack the U.S. mainland.
"The recovered North Korean missile (from the December 2012 launch) provided tangible proof that North Korea was building the missile's cone at dimensions for a nuclear warhead, durable enough to be placed on a long-range missile," it said.
The report also said that Pyongyang has deployed approximately 800 Scud short-range tactical ballistic missiles, 300 Rodong medium-range missiles, and 50 Musudan intermediate-range ballistic missiles.
