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Mon, August 15, 2022 | 19:33
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US experts call for Seoul's active role in inter-Korean relations
미 전문가들 "한국이 충격요법으로 미국 변화 유도해야"
Posted : 2015-01-21 16:22
Updated : 2015-01-21 19:24
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By Kim Hyo-jin

U.S. experts have called on Seoul to take a more proactive role to promote inter-Korean reconciliation, at an academic forum Tuesday.

They said Seoul's further engagement with Pyongyang is the only way to restart contact between Washington and Pyongyang, during a seminar hosted by the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University.

"Without progress on the South-North front, and without pressure from the South Korean government on the U.S. government, nothing is going to happen," said Joel Wit, the founder and editor of 38 North, an academic website that covers North Korea.

The expert pointed out that the Obama administration has had little interest in resuming talks with the repressive regime. Its diplomatic stance toward Pyongyang will hardly change as the U.S. is facing a presidential election, they added.

He advised that under such circumstances, Seoul should take the lead in changing the situation on the Korean Peninsula.

"Should the two Koreas hold a summit, it would make a lot of ripples in Washington," Wit said. "If North and South move forward on economic and other issues without making serious progress on the WMD issues, Washington is going to become extremely concerned about that."

Last week, Sung Kim, the U.S. special representative for North Korea, said that he hoped inter-Korean talks would support U.S. efforts to denuclearize the North.

Robert Carlin, a visiting scholar of International Security at Stanford University, also mentioned that it is high time for Seoul to take the lead.

"Pyongyang may consider waiting until the next government for inter-Korean dialogue unless it witnesses any substantial changes in the third year of President Park's presidential term," Carlin said.

"If Seoul misses the timing now, it could hardly find another chance for the next one to two years," he added.

Their statements came amid a lingering standoff between the two Korean over potential dialogue to discuss various pending issues.

Seoul has been calling on Pyongyang to come to the negotiation table first, while the latter has laid out several preconditions for such a meeting, including preventing the floating of balloons carrying anti-North Korea leaflets across the Demilitarized Zone, and halting joint South Korea-U.S. military exercises.



미 전문가들 "한국이 충격요법으로 미국 변화 유도해야"

'남북관계 진전이나 한국의 압박 없으면 미국 꿈쩍도 안해'

미국의 한반도 전문가들은 20일(현지시간) 남북관계의 획기적 개선 등 한반도발(發) 요인이 없으면 미국은 꿈쩍도 하지 않을 것이라며 한국 정부의 적극적인 대북 대화 노력을 주문했다.

북한 전문 웹사이트 '38노스'를 운영하는 조엘 위트 존스홉킨스대 한미연구소 연구원은 이날 오전 워싱턴DC 연구소 강당에서 열린 조찬 세미나에서 이같이 밝혔다.

그는 '미국과 북한이 진지한 접촉을 재개할 기회는 오로지 남북(관계발전)을 통해서만 가능하다'면서 '남북관계의 진전 없이는, 또 한국의 대미 압박 없이는 미국 정부는 지금의 대북기조를 바꾸지 않을 것'이라고 말했다.

위트 연구원은 특히 '미국은 이제 대선국면으로 접어들고 있고 이는 곧 향후 2년 동안 외교전선에서 별다른 변화가 일어나지 않을 것임을 의미한다'면서 '미국의 대북정책에 어떤 변화를 보려면 한국 정부가 남북정상회담 등과 같은 충격 요법을 써야 한다'고 강조했다.

그는 '남북정상회담이 성사되면 이는 미국에 큰 파문을 일으킬 것'이라면서 '더욱이 남북이 대량파괴무기(WMD)에 관한 진지한 진전 없이 경제나 다른 이슈로 관계를 발전시켜 나가면 미국은 매우 우려하게 될 것'이라고 지적했다.

미 중앙정보국(CIA)과 국무부 등에서 북한업무를 담당했던 로버트 칼린 스탠퍼드대 연구원도 '남북관계에 어떤 진전이 없으면 북미 간에 뭔가 일어날 것이라고 기대하기 어렵다'고 호응했다.

칼린 연구원은 '박근혜 대통령의 임기가 3년 남은 상황에서 지금 남북 간에 어떤 변화가 일기 시작하지 않으면 북한은 '남북대화가 뭔 소용이냐'는 생각을 하게 될 것'이라면서 '북한은 어차피 다음 정권이 있으니 그때까지 기다려보자는 생각을 할 것'이라고 분석했다.

그는 '지금은 매우 취약한 시기로 이번 (남북관계 개선의) 기회가 사라지면 향후 1∼2년간은 다른 기회를 찾기 어려울 것'이라면서 '미국과 뭔가 끝내 안될 경우 북한은 결국 핵 프로그램을 더 찾게 될 것'이라고 우려했다. (연합뉴스)
Emailhyojinkim@koreatimes.co.kr Article ListMore articles by this reporter
 
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