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| President Park Geun-hye, along with her Cabinet members, pays a visit to the Seoul National Cemetery on the first day of 2015, Thursday. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, right, pays tribute to former leaders Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il, the founder of North Korea and his father, respectively, with his military aides, at the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun in Pyongyang on the same day. / Yonhap |
Experts react with caution, optimism in equal parts
By Kang Seung-woo
Hope for a third inter-Korean summit rose significantly on Thursday after leaders of the two Koreas expressed their willingness in their New Year speeches to hold one.
But experts mixed a note of caution with the dash of optimism. Their assessment has frosty inter-Korean relations and the unpredictable nature of summit politics on the minus side. On the plus side, among other points, are the leaders' political needs.
"It depends on a decision by the government," said Chang Yong-seok, a senior researcher at the Institute for Peace and Unification Studies at Seoul National University.
"Should President Park Geun-hye meet Kim Jong-un without resolving any fundamental issues, including the North's nuclear program, the South may be seen as providing a sign of acknowledging the North's nuclear weapons and legitimizing the regime."
In a televised New Year speech, Kim said, "If South Korean authorities sincerely want to mend ties with us, we can resume various talks including high-level dialogue."
He continued, "Depending on the mood and circumstances to be created, we have no reason not to hold the highest-level talks."
His address echoed Park's New Year message.
"We should end the history of division by putting an end to the Cold War on the Korean Peninsula," she said.
Kim's "unexpected" address came three days after Seoul's Presidential Committee for Unification Preparation proposed talks with Pyongyang in January to discuss issues of mutual concern, including reuniting families separated by the 1950-53 Korean War.
"North Korea is likely to meet with South Korea in January because the Kim regime also needs to strengthen its grip on power in the year of the 70th anniversary of the founding of the ruling Workers' Party," said Prof. Yang Moo-jin at the University of North Korean Studies.
"The North responded to the South's offer, raising chances of a summit. However, the North may make a counterproposal because the reclusive regime sees the presidential committee as a preparatory body to facilitate the South's unification plan to absorb the communist country."
Chang also said Kim had indicated the possibility of a summit because he also has to show some results in his fourth year in power.
"Kim is under pressure to produce tangible results this year, so he mentioned the possibility of a summit," he said. "In addition, an inter-Korean summit can bring about economic benefits and improve the North's international relations.
"Park is also pressed to show some progress in ties with the North in the third year of her term and the North may have considered this, as well."
Later in the day, the South said that Kim's New Year speech was meaningful, given that he showed a progressive stance on improving ties and exchanges between the South and the North.
"We hope inter-Korean talks without formality and constraint will take place in the near future," said Unification Minister Ryoo Kihl-jae.
North Korea watchers say that there are still a few stumbling blocks to a meeting between Park and Kim, including anti-Pyongyang leaflets and joint ROK-U.S. military exercises.
"As Kim cited the mood and circumstances as prerequisites for a summit, anti-North Korea leaflet campaigns by North Korean defectors may prohibit dialogue between the South and the North," said Sejong Institute senior researcher Cheong Seong-chan.
"The government should come up with an appropriate resolution to the issue."
The leaflet campaign led to the cancellation of a planned second-round of high-level talks in late October or early November after the North's criticism of the activity, with the South staying silent about it.
The North Korean leader also criticized the annual joint military exercises.
"Large-scale drills held every year in the South inflame tensions on the Korean Peninsula and heighten the threat of nuclear war," he said.
"In such a tense mood, trust-based dialogue cannot be possible and North-South relations cannot move forward."
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