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Thu, June 1, 2023 | 20:23
-------------------------
Leaders jack up hope for S-N summit
광복 70주년 `남북정상회담' 분위기 무르익나
Posted : 2015-01-01 16:03
Updated : 2015-01-01 18:58
Kang Seung-woo
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President Park Geun-hye, along with her Cabinet members, pays a visit to the Seoul National Cemetery on the first day of 2015, Thursday. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, right, pays tribute to former leaders Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il, the founder of North Korea and his father, respectively, with his military aides, at the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun in Pyongyang on the same day. / Yonhap
President Park Geun-hye, along with her Cabinet members, pays a visit to the Seoul National Cemetery on the first day of 2015, Thursday. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, right, pays tribute to former leaders Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il, the founder of North Korea and his father, respectively, with his military aides, at the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun in Pyongyang on the same day. / Yonhap

Experts react with caution, optimism in equal parts


By Kang Seung-woo

Hope for a third inter-Korean summit rose significantly on Thursday after leaders of the two Koreas expressed their willingness in their New Year speeches to hold one.

But experts mixed a note of caution with the dash of optimism. Their assessment has frosty inter-Korean relations and the unpredictable nature of summit politics on the minus side. On the plus side, among other points, are the leaders' political needs.

"It depends on a decision by the government," said Chang Yong-seok, a senior researcher at the Institute for Peace and Unification Studies at Seoul National University.

"Should President Park Geun-hye meet Kim Jong-un without resolving any fundamental issues, including the North's nuclear program, the South may be seen as providing a sign of acknowledging the North's nuclear weapons and legitimizing the regime."

In a televised New Year speech, Kim said, "If South Korean authorities sincerely want to mend ties with us, we can resume various talks including high-level dialogue."

He continued, "Depending on the mood and circumstances to be created, we have no reason not to hold the highest-level talks."

His address echoed Park's New Year message.

"We should end the history of division by putting an end to the Cold War on the Korean Peninsula," she said.

Kim's "unexpected" address came three days after Seoul's Presidential Committee for Unification Preparation proposed talks with Pyongyang in January to discuss issues of mutual concern, including reuniting families separated by the 1950-53 Korean War.

"North Korea is likely to meet with South Korea in January because the Kim regime also needs to strengthen its grip on power in the year of the 70th anniversary of the founding of the ruling Workers' Party," said Prof. Yang Moo-jin at the University of North Korean Studies.

"The North responded to the South's offer, raising chances of a summit. However, the North may make a counterproposal because the reclusive regime sees the presidential committee as a preparatory body to facilitate the South's unification plan to absorb the communist country."

Chang also said Kim had indicated the possibility of a summit because he also has to show some results in his fourth year in power.

"Kim is under pressure to produce tangible results this year, so he mentioned the possibility of a summit," he said. "In addition, an inter-Korean summit can bring about economic benefits and improve the North's international relations.

"Park is also pressed to show some progress in ties with the North in the third year of her term and the North may have considered this, as well."

Later in the day, the South said that Kim's New Year speech was meaningful, given that he showed a progressive stance on improving ties and exchanges between the South and the North.

"We hope inter-Korean talks without formality and constraint will take place in the near future," said Unification Minister Ryoo Kihl-jae.

North Korea watchers say that there are still a few stumbling blocks to a meeting between Park and Kim, including anti-Pyongyang leaflets and joint ROK-U.S. military exercises.

"As Kim cited the mood and circumstances as prerequisites for a summit, anti-North Korea leaflet campaigns by North Korean defectors may prohibit dialogue between the South and the North," said Sejong Institute senior researcher Cheong Seong-chan.

"The government should come up with an appropriate resolution to the issue."

The leaflet campaign led to the cancellation of a planned second-round of high-level talks in late October or early November after the North's criticism of the activity, with the South staying silent about it.

The North Korean leader also criticized the annual joint military exercises.

"Large-scale drills held every year in the South inflame tensions on the Korean Peninsula and heighten the threat of nuclear war," he said.

"In such a tense mood, trust-based dialogue cannot be possible and North-South relations cannot move forward."


광복 70주년 `남북정상회담' 분위기 무르익나

을미년 새해 벽두부터 '정상회담'이 남북관계의 화두로 떠오를 조짐이다. 

북한 김정은 국방위원회 제1위원장이 1일 조선중앙TV가 방영한 육성 신년사를 통해 '분위기와 환경이 마련되는데 따라 최고위급 회담도 못할 이유가 없다'며 남북관계 진전을 전제로 정상회담에 나설 용의가 있음을 시사하면서다.

이러한 김 제1위원장의 언급은 '분단 70년을 마감하고 통일의 길을 열어갈 것'이라는 세밑 박 대통령의 신년사에 대한 화답으로도 읽히면서 두 정상이 남북관계의 개선을 올해 중대 국정목표로 꺼내든 것 아니냐는 해석을 낳고 있다.

특히 두 정상의 의지나 남북관계 변화에 따라서는 광복 70주년이자 분단 70주년을 맞은 올해 남북 정상회담의 전격적 실현도 완전히 불가능한 것만은 아니라는 설익은 관측도 제기되는 기류다. 

일단 청와대는 이날 김 위원장의 신년사에 공식적 반응을 내놓지 않았다. 하지만 새해 첫날 북한 최고지도자의 적극적인 남북관계 개선의지를 반기는 분위기는 감지된다. 외교라인 관계자들은 만약 성사만 된다면 남북 최고지도자의 만남이 얽히고설킨 남북간 쟁점을 한꺼번에 해소할 수 있는 최고의 방식이라는 말을 되풀이해왔다. 

무엇보다 청와대는 집권 중반이자 전국단위 선거가 없는 올해가 남북관계의 획기적 개선을 도모해 통일에의 길을 닦을 수 있는 적기라는 입장을 줄곧 표명해왔다. 

박 대통령이 지난해 12월29일 '2014 핵심 국정과제 점검회의'에서 '새해에는 한반도 평화통일을 위해 좀 더 적극 노력해 나갈 것'이라고 밝힌 것도 어떤 식으로든 을미년에는 남북관계의 진전을 이뤄내겠다는 각오를 드러낸 것이었다는게 청와대 관계자들의 설명이다. 

이러한 배경에는 정부 출범후 한반도신뢰프로세스와 동북아평화구상이라는 대북구상이 가동되고 대북지원을 담은 '통일대박론'과 드레스덴구상 등이 발표됐지만 오히려 북한을 자극하면서 남북관계는 답보상황을 탈피하지 못한데 따른 초조함이 깔려있었다. 

지난해 10월 황병서 총정치국장 등 북한 고위급 3인방의 전격적인 방남 이후 제2차 남북고위급 접촉 성사 가능성이 제기됐으나 북한 경비정의 서해북방한계선 (NLL) 침범, 대북전단 살포에 대한 북한측의 고사총 발포 등으로 남북대화 채널이 끊긴 것이 단적인 예다. 

특히 `정윤회 국정개입' 문건 파문 등으로 떨어진 국정추진력을 남북관계 진전을 통해 보완할 수 있다는 관측도 제기돼왔다.

실제 대통령 직속 통일준비위는 작년 12월29일 김양건 북한노동당 통일전선부장 앞으로 남북당국간 회담을 열자고 전격 제안했으며, 한반도 냉전종식과 분단 70년 역사마감, 실질적인 통일기반 구축 등을 담은 박 대통령의 신년사 메시지 등이 이어졌다. 

청와대와 외교안보라인 측은 김 위원장의 이러한 조건부 남북정상회담 용의 언급이 중국과의 관계가 예전같지 않은 가운데 전통적인 핵문제에 이어 지난해 12월 유엔의 북한 인권결의안 채택에 따른 외교무대에서의 고립상황과 무관하지 않은 것으로 보고 있다. 

광복 70주년, 분단 70주년이라는 시점은 남북관계 개선의 카드를 택해 이러한 고립무원을 탈피할 수 있는 호기라고 판단했을 가능성이 크다는 것이다.

박 대통령은 이러한 흐름 속에서 이달 둘째주 이후로 전망되는 신년 기자회견을 통해 더욱 대담하고 획기적인 대북제안을 발표할 가능성이 점쳐진다. 여권 일각에서는 북한이 요구해온 5·.24 조치 해제에 화답하는 대책이 나오는 것 아니냐는 섣부른 관측마저 제기되고 있다.  

또한 박 대통령은 2일 오후 청와대에서 열리는 2015년도 신년인사회에서 새해 국정운영 기조를 밝히며 각계의 협조를 당부할 것으로 예상되는데 대북정책 기조와 관련해 어떤 언급을 할지 주목된다. 

다만 청와대는 김 제1위원장의 언급이 고립탈피를 위한 일종의 유화공세일 가능성도 배제하지 않고 북측의 움직임을 차분하게 주시하고 있다. 남북관계 개선을 적극 모색하되 '원칙을 견지하면서'(박 대통령이) 대응하겠다는 것이 일관된 입장이라는게 청와대 관계자들의 설명이다 (연합뉴스)
Emailksw@koreatimes.co.kr Article ListMore articles by this reporter
 
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