By Yi Whan-woo
President Park Geun-hye's foreign policy smacks of her own brand of isolationism ― focusing on China and the United States to the exclusion of all others ― namely North Korea and Japan.
It also raises questions over how it will affect her "unification will be a bonanza" assertion.
Experts say that it is about time that Park changed her approach or risk the consequences.
They say that the Park government should open up a channel of dialogue with Pyongyang and Tokyo, both key players that would exert influence in the event of unification.
"Seoul has not been earnest in pursuing dialogue with Pyongyang," said Paik Hak-soon, the director of the Center for North Korean Studies at the Sejong Institute, a global policy think tank here.
He referred to Park's speech at the U.N. General Assembly last week. Stressing the need for international support for inter-Korean integration, she called for an end to North Korea's nuclear weapons program and improvements to its human rights record.
"To maintain a healthy diplomatic relationship, the countries should not ignore or isolate one other.
"The Park government, however, has assumed an attitude of superiority over the Kim Jong-un regime and sometimes acts as if he was a child.
"Under such circumstances, little progress will be made on inter-Korean ties and Park's Dresden Initiative will not be successful," Paik added.
In a speech during her March visit to Dresden, Germany, the President unveiled initiatives for humanity, co-prosperity and integration on the Korean Peninsula. These include South Korea investing in infrastructure-building along with the construction of multi-farming complexes in North Korea, collaborative projects with China and Russia, and joint natural resource development projects.
Another expert said the Dresden Initiative was based on a conservative notion that does not recognize North Korea as a "legitimate government."
"Park came up with the initiative amid concerns rising over a sudden collapse of the totalitarian state," said a researcher at Sejong Institute on condition of anonymity.
"Therefore, the projects under her initiative are aimed at helping the common people in the North.
"These lack measures to woo the political elite and the military ― the two most powerful social groups ― and the President's unification efforts will stumble unless she deals with them, too."
Paik said Kim's private message, recently delivered to U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, already shows the negative impact of Park's isolation policy toward Pyongyang.
The letter was delivered by North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Su-yong.
Ban's office did not confirm what was written in the letter.
In her U.N. speech, Park stressed that sexual violence against women during times of war tarnishes efforts of humanitarianism regardless of time and region. Her remarks were seen as criticism of Tokyo, which is in a continuing historical dispute with Seoul over Japan's sexual enslavement of Korean women during World War II.
"At the six-party nuclear talks, Japan has its unique role to promote peace on the Korean Peninsula," the Sejong Institute researcher said. "As long as Park continues her emotional and hard-line policy toward Tokyo, Seoul will have difficulties in winning Tokyo's support for inter-Korean unification."
Jin Chang-soo, the director of Japan Center at the Sejong Institute, echoed a similar view.
"As democratic nations in Northeast Asia, both South Korea and Japan can work together for North Korea to open door to outside. "Such job takes tremendous effort which we can't handle on ourselves in some ways."
박근혜 대통령의 외교정책이 중국과 미국에 집중하고 일본과 북한을 고립시키려는 고립주의로 발전될 가능성이 비춰지면서 우려를 낳고 있다.
이로 인해 이 상황이 박대통령의 통일대박론에 어떤 영향을 줄 지 관심이 모이고 있다.
전문가들은 박대통령이 결단을 내려야 할 시기라고 말하고 있다.
이들은 정부가 통일을 하는 데 있어 북한과 일본의 영향이 크기 때문에 대화를 시작해야 한다고 진단했다.
세종 연구소 백학순 수석 연구원은 “현 상황에서는 남북관계와 드레스덴 선언을 이행하는데 별다른 진전이 없을 것”이라 말했다.
또한 백연구원은 김정은 노동당 제1비서가 반기문 사무총장에게 보낸 편지는 우리정부의 고립정책에 악영향을 주고 있음을 보여준다고 말했다.
한편 박대통령은 유엔 총회 연설에서 전쟁 기간 동안 발생한 성폭력에 대해 시기와 지역에 상관 없이 인도주의적 노력이 흐려지면 안 된다고 말했다. 이 연설은 위안부 문제로 한국 정부와 마찰을 빚고 있는 일본 정부를 겨냥한 것으로 보인다.
이에 대해 익명을 요구한 다른 세종연구소 연구원은 일본이 6자 회담에서 중요한 역할을 해왔다며 “박근혜 정부가 일본정부에 대해 강경한 입장을 고수하는 한 한국은 통일을 하는데 있어 일본의 지지를 이끌어내기 어려울 것”이라고 전했다.
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