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Tue, March 28, 2023 | 02:14
Foreign Affairs
NK warned against nuclear test
"北 4차 핵실험 수순밟나" 美전문가들 관측 분분
Posted : 2014-04-08 17:27
Updated : 2014-04-08 20:17
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By Chung Min-uck

South Korea, the United States and Japan urged North Korea to drop its plan to conduct another nuclear test or face serious repercussions.

They issued the warning following a trilateral meeting in Washington D.C., Monday.

"If North Korea goes ahead with another nuclear test, we, along with the international community, will make it pay the price for that," said Hwang Joon-kook, South Korea's top nuclear envoy.

Hwang made the remarks at a media briefing after the talks with U.S. and Japanese counterparts ― Glyn Davies and Junichi Ihara.

"North Korea's nuclear test would be a direct challenge to the international community, and a threat to peace and security in the world," he said.

Hwang also held separate bilateral meetings with Davies and Ihara on the same day.

The one-on-one talks between the envoys from Seoul and Tokyo were the first since June last year.

According to insiders, the dialogue took place on condition that both parties would only discuss North Korean issues.

Seoul and Tokyo didn't engage in a separate bilateral meeting during the last trilateral denuclearization gathering on November, reflecting the deteriorating ties between the two neighboring countries after Japan's numerous attempts at historical revision of atrocities committed against Korea during its colonial rule of the peninsula (1910-45).

Monday's tripartite session came while the unpredictable Stalinist state threatens to carry out a "new type" of nuclear test as an angry response to a U.N. Security Council (UNSC) condemnation of its recent ballistic missile launches.

It was also a follow-up on a summit agreement between the leaders of the three regional powers in The Hague, Netherlands, last month.

The three regional powers agreed to make "united and effective" efforts to prevent North Korea from taking further provocative steps, according to Hwang.

Releasing a statement following the tripartite talks, the U.S. also said that the three nations urged the North to "refrain from further threatening actions."

"These discussions reflect the close ongoing cooperation between our three countries, as well as our common values and interests across the Asia-Pacific region," said the U.S. in the statement.

It added that Seoul, Washington and Tokyo reaffirmed their commitment to the Sept. 19, 2005 Joint Statement of the six-way talks and its core objective of denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula in a peaceful manner.

Under the deal, North Korea is obliged to abandon its entire nuclear program in return for political and economic incentives from South Korea, the U.S., China, Japan and Russia.

The negotiations of the six-parties remain at a halt since December 2008 after the North walked out in protest of the UNSC condemnation of a banned rocket launch.

North Korea conducted nuclear tests in 2006, 2009 and 2013, drawing international condemnation and U.N. resolution sanctions.

Meanwhile, the communist regime continues with its criticism of the allies, Tuesday.

"The U.S. and South Korean government have no right to blame us referring to us as violating the U.N resolutions," said the North's main Rodong Sinmun newspaper. "As long as the adversarial powers' challenge of aggression continues to take place we will push forward with our efforts to strengthen self-defensive military power."

The so-called "challenge of aggression" refers to the ongoing Seoul-Washington joint Foal Eagle military exercise that will last until April 18.


"北 4차 핵실험 수순밟나" 美전문가들 관측 분분

핵실험시 고농축우라늄 유력시…'동시다발형' 가능성
유엔 초강경 제재 관측 대두…'새로운 일상' 시각도


북한이 4차 핵실험을 강행할 가능성이 대두되고 있는 가운데 핵실험 강행 여부에서부터 핵실험의 형태와 성격, 핵실험의 결과에 이르기까지 미국 한반도 전문가들 사이에서 논의가 분분해지고 있다.

◇ 핵실험 강행 여부 = 북한의 4차 핵실험 위협이 단순히 수사(修辭)에 그칠 것이라는 관측과 사실상 수순밟기에 돌입했다는 분석이 엇갈리고 있다.

워싱턴의 대표적인 보수 싱크탱크인 헤리티지재단의 브루스 클링너 선임연구원은 북한의 위협을 '공허한 주장'이라고 폄하했다. 그는 '북한은 지난해 3월 '과거에 보지 못했던 다종화된 우리 식의 정밀 핵 타격으로 서울뿐 아니라 워싱턴까지 불바다로 만들겠다'고 위협한 적이 있다'고 지적했다. 같은 재단의 앤서니 김 연구원도 '전략적 모호성이 담긴 '전술적 위장'에 불과하다'고 풀이했다.

이에 반해 버락 오바마 대통령 대선캠프의 한반도 정책팀장을 맡았던 프랭크 자누지 맨스필드재단 사무총장은 '북한은 위협을 하고 신호를 보낸 뒤 후속조치를 취해왔다'며 '실행에 옮길 가능성이 크다'고 말했다. 그는 '기술적으로 준비되더라도 핵실험 시기는 정치적 결정에 의해 내려질 것'이라며 '중요한 기념일에 맞춰 실험을 강행할 것'이라고 전망했다.

워싱턴 외교가에서는 시간이 흐르면서 4차 핵실험이 현실화될 가능성에 무게가 실리고 있다. 특히 4월의 민감한 정치·외교일정에 발맞춰 핵실험을 강행할 가능성이 있다는게 외교가의 대체적 관측이다.

◇ 핵실험 형태와 성격 = 전문가들은 대체로 '특정 형태'가 될 것이라고 단정하기보다는 여러가지 가능성을 거론하고 있다. 그만큼 북한 핵활동에 대한 미국의 정보가 부족하다는 뜻으로도 볼 수 있다.

기존 핵실험에 쓰였던 핵분열 물질인 플루토늄을 대신해 고농축 우라늄(HEU)을 이용한 핵실험이 될 가능성이 가장 많이 거론된다.

더글라스 팔 카네기평화재단 부회장은 '다음번 핵실험은 고농축 우라늄을 이용한 실험이 될 가능성이 크다'고 말했다. 앨런 롬버그 스팀슨센터 선임연구원은 '대체로 플루토늄보다는 고농축 우라늄 기반의 핵실험이 될 것으로 보고 있다'고 소개했다.

HEU를 이용한 핵실험과 함께 소형화된 핵무기를 선보일 가능성도 거론되고 있다. 북한 전문웹사이트인 '38노스'를 운영하는 조엘 위트 미국 존스홉킨스대 초빙교수는 '고농축 우라늄과 같은 핵물질의 형태와 더욱 정교해진 장비를 갖춘 핵무기의 형태를 의미할 수 있는데, 두가지 가능성이 다 있다고 본다'고 분석했다.

자누지 총장도 HEU 기반의 핵탄두를 소형화한 뒤 장거리 미사일에 탑재하는 형태로 핵실험을 할 가능성을 제기했다.

그러나 일부는 '증폭핵분열탄' 또는 '중성자탄'을 이용한 핵실험을 할 가능성이 있다고 내다봤다. 브루스 베넷 미국 랜드연구소 선임연구원은 '20kt(킬로톤) 이상의 폭발력을 과시할 수 있는 '증폭핵분열탄'(boosted device)을 이용해 핵실험을 할 가능성이 있다'고 전망했다.

롬버그 연구원은 고농축 우라늄에 근거한 핵실험 가능성에 힘을 실으면서도 '과거부터 예측돼온 중성자탄일 수 있다'고 말했다.

도발의 형태가 일회성이 아닌 '동시다발형'이 될 수 있다는 분석이 나왔다. 제프리 루이스 미국 비확산센터(CNS) 소장은 '초점은 무엇을 실험하느냐가 아니라 어떻게 실험하느냐에 맞춰져야 한다'며 '동시다발 실험(salvo test)을 의미할 수 있다'고 말했다. 그는 수직갱도 또는 대기권 핵실험 가능성도 제기했다.

◇ 핵실험 결과 = 핵실험이 가져올 후폭풍을 놓고는 대체로 안보리를 중심으로 금융제재와 같은 초강경 제재가 가해질 것이라는 관측이 우세하다.

데이비드 스트로브 스탠퍼드대 아태연구소 한국학 부소장은 연합뉴스와의 전화통화에서 '북한이 어떤 형태의 핵실험을 할지 모르겠지만 (핵실험을 하려는) 북한의 태도에 좌절감을 느낀다'며 '북한은 전략적·전술적 입장을 강화하고자 핵프로그램을 이용하고 있으나 상황을 개선시키기 어려울 것'이라고 지적했다.

그러나 자누지 총장은 '북한이 계속 나쁘게 행동하고 있지만 핵실험이 거듭되면서 제재의 강도가 약해지고 있다'며 '지금 북한의 단거리 스커드 미사일 발사에 대해 불평을 제기하지 않는 것처럼 '새로운 일상'(New Normal)이 될 소지가 있다'고 내다봤다.
Emailmuchung@koreatimes.co.kr Article ListMore articles by this reporter
 
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