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| North Korean workers hold a rally to swear loyalty to their leader Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang, Friday. The young, unpredictable leader is expected to rely on brinkmanship to make the Korean Peninsula a hotbed of tension, threatening the security of Northeast Asia. / Yonhap |
By Kang Seung-woo
North Korea is expected to remain a key factor increasing instability in Northeast Asia next year, a U.S. think tank said, Sunday.
According to the "11 Key Issues for the Coming Year," released by the National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR), the Kim Jong-un regime is likely to take military action including a nuclear test or launching a long-range missile. The young, unpredictable leader will make the Korean Peninsula a hotbed of tension and threaten the security of Northeast Asia, it said.
"Additional missile and nuclear tests will be required in order to realize an operational nuclear capability," said Greg Chaffin, a project associate at NBR. "With the regime now seemingly intent on establishing a nuclear deterrent capability as the central pillar of its security policy, expect North Korea to conduct additional long-range missile and even nuclear warhead tests in the coming year, potentially including tests of an intercontinental ballistic missile."
In December last year, Pyongyang successfully launched a long-range rocket carrying a satellite, widely seen as a cover for a test of banned ballistic missile technology, and in February, it conducted its third nuclear test.
For about two months after the moves, the North added to tension in the region by abrogating the Korean War Armistice, while threatening nuclear strikes against South Korea and the United States.
Earlier this month, the North Korean leader, believed to be around 30 years old, executed his uncle and de facto deputy, Jang Song-thaek, for treason and he may turn to provocative actions in order to demonstrate his authority and assert his independence, Chaffin said.
"It is likely that North Korea may carry out some low-level provocation as a means of securing domestic support for the regime ― especially from the military ― during a period of potential vulnerability," he said. "Indeed, it is possible that North Korea may pursue these two separate courses simultaneously."
The Stalinist country's recent track record backs up the speculation of staging provocations to divest power from his regents.
In March 2010, a North Korean torpedo sunk the South Korean naval ship Cheonan in the West Sea, claiming 46 sailors and in November of the same year, an artillery unit shelled Yeonpyeong Island, killing four.
The forecast comes as military chiefs from Seoul and Washington voiced strong concerns about increased uncertainties surrounding North Korea and the possibility of provocations.
"The reality of that uncertainty (coming out of North Korea) heightens the tensions. It further deepens the suspicions of motives," U.S. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel said in a news briefing Thursday.
Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Martin Dempsey added: "These kind of internal actions by dictators are often a precursor to provocation to distract attention from what they're doing inside of that country."
Defense Minister Kim Kwan-jin said Tuesday that chances are high the North will take provocative action between January and March next year, when the country will have some big national events and joint Seoul-Washington military drills are planned.
