By Kim Tae-gyu
Despite her relatively high approval ratings, President Park Geun-hye is not free from trouble.
The biggest problem is what the main opposition Democratic Party (DP) has been trying to do — prove her Dec. 19, 2012 election victory was made possible through illegal help. Park has already declared she had nothing to with it.
"When the National Intelligence Service (NIS) came under criticism for interfering in last year's presidential election, few seemed to be swayed," said Prof. Son Tae-gyu at Dankook University.
"After the Ministry of National Defense was accused of having intervened in the election, however, many started to voice concern. I think that it has become a very serious problem for the President to worry about."
Officials of the nation's spy agency allegedly uploaded online postings critical of the DP candidate Moon Jae-in late last year.
Recently, the DP came up with a fresh suspicion that a defense ministry unit also did similar things to help Park, who beat Moon by 3.6 percentage points — the former got 51.6 percent against the latter's 48 percent.
"The worst-case scenario from the perspective of President Park and the Saenuri Party would be any claims denying the legitimacy of the presidency," said Son, who once worked as a journalist for a major newspaper.
"The chances are that such voices could surface soon as new evidence continues to surprise us. President Park and the Saenuri Party should be prepared to grapple with the difficulties."
Professor Shin Yul at Myongji University pointed out that the economic slump might be a real headache for the nation's first woman President as the economy shows no signs of recovery.
"In my view, the economy comes first. If the Park government chalks up a failure like the pension plan for all senior citizens again, it will experience a backlash," Shin said.
President Park promised to give a 200,000-won monthly basic pension to all people aged 65 and over during her presidential campaign last year but she drastically reduced the amount and range of the beneficiaries citing a lack of financing.
In addition, the feasibility of her other welfare polices is being questioned because they are expected to cost approximately 135 trillion won — Park pledged to achieve them without raising tax rates or issuing sovereign bonds.
Experts point out that if the economic situation improves, Park's plan may make sense but the hitch is that Asia's No. 4 economy is unlikely to turn around in the near future.
On a more negative note for Park, Korean presidents tended to suffer sub-average economic growth rates during the first year after their inauguration for some reason and that might be the case for this year.
In 1998 when former President Kim Dae-jung took office, the country contracted 5.7 percent, the second worst in the country's history after 1980.
In 2003 when President Roh Moo-hyun took power the rate was 2.8 percent, down 4.4 percentage points from the previous year. So-called business-friendly President Lee Myung-bak saw the similar misfortune as the economic growth in his first year was a mere 2.3 percent, down 2.8 percentage points from the year before.
"Korea Inc. is predicted to rack up a growth rate of lower than 3 percent this year, which would one of the worst among the major emerging countries," said a professor at a Seoul university who asked not to be named.
"Should the economy be in a good shape, the president has room for political maneuvering. If not, he or she would face hardship. In this sense, President Park isn't in a happy situation."
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| President Park Geun-hye |
The biggest problem is what the main opposition Democratic Party (DP) has been trying to do — prove her Dec. 19, 2012 election victory was made possible through illegal help. Park has already declared she had nothing to with it.
"When the National Intelligence Service (NIS) came under criticism for interfering in last year's presidential election, few seemed to be swayed," said Prof. Son Tae-gyu at Dankook University.
"After the Ministry of National Defense was accused of having intervened in the election, however, many started to voice concern. I think that it has become a very serious problem for the President to worry about."
Officials of the nation's spy agency allegedly uploaded online postings critical of the DP candidate Moon Jae-in late last year.
Recently, the DP came up with a fresh suspicion that a defense ministry unit also did similar things to help Park, who beat Moon by 3.6 percentage points — the former got 51.6 percent against the latter's 48 percent.
"The worst-case scenario from the perspective of President Park and the Saenuri Party would be any claims denying the legitimacy of the presidency," said Son, who once worked as a journalist for a major newspaper.
"The chances are that such voices could surface soon as new evidence continues to surprise us. President Park and the Saenuri Party should be prepared to grapple with the difficulties."
Professor Shin Yul at Myongji University pointed out that the economic slump might be a real headache for the nation's first woman President as the economy shows no signs of recovery.
"In my view, the economy comes first. If the Park government chalks up a failure like the pension plan for all senior citizens again, it will experience a backlash," Shin said.
President Park promised to give a 200,000-won monthly basic pension to all people aged 65 and over during her presidential campaign last year but she drastically reduced the amount and range of the beneficiaries citing a lack of financing.
In addition, the feasibility of her other welfare polices is being questioned because they are expected to cost approximately 135 trillion won — Park pledged to achieve them without raising tax rates or issuing sovereign bonds.
Experts point out that if the economic situation improves, Park's plan may make sense but the hitch is that Asia's No. 4 economy is unlikely to turn around in the near future.
On a more negative note for Park, Korean presidents tended to suffer sub-average economic growth rates during the first year after their inauguration for some reason and that might be the case for this year.
In 1998 when former President Kim Dae-jung took office, the country contracted 5.7 percent, the second worst in the country's history after 1980.
In 2003 when President Roh Moo-hyun took power the rate was 2.8 percent, down 4.4 percentage points from the previous year. So-called business-friendly President Lee Myung-bak saw the similar misfortune as the economic growth in his first year was a mere 2.3 percent, down 2.8 percentage points from the year before.
"Korea Inc. is predicted to rack up a growth rate of lower than 3 percent this year, which would one of the worst among the major emerging countries," said a professor at a Seoul university who asked not to be named.
"Should the economy be in a good shape, the president has room for political maneuvering. If not, he or she would face hardship. In this sense, President Park isn't in a happy situation."
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