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Fri, March 31, 2023 | 16:23
Dark cloud looms again over six-party talks
영변 원자로 재가동 관측, 6자회담 움직임에 변수
Posted : 2013-09-13 17:04
Updated : 2013-09-13 17:04
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A satellite image taken by DigitalGlobe on Aug. 31 shows white smoke billowing from a building near the 5-megawatt reactor at North Korea's Yongbyon nuclear complex. Korea Times file
A satellite image taken by DigitalGlobe on Aug. 31 shows white smoke billowing from a building near the 5-megawatt reactor at North Korea's Yongbyon nuclear complex. Korea Times file


By Chung Min-uck


Another dark cloud has been cast over the reopening of the long-stalled six-party talks that aim at ending North Korea's nuclear ambitions.

According to an Aug. 31 satellite imagery of a U.S. think tank, Wednesday, North Korea has restarted operations of its plutonium-producing nuclear reactor in its Yongbyon facility.

Regarding the report, the U.S. State Department castigated North Korea Thursday saying if reactivation is true it would be a "violation of the relevant U.N. Security Council resolutions" and its commitments made under its Sept. 19, 2005, joint statement between the six-party nations.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs also said that it is keeping a close eye while following-up on the situation.

Affected by North Korea's attitude, diplomatic sources say Seoul and Washington are not planning to send any government officials to the informal six-party meeting suggested earlier by Beijing.

The two allies both hold the position that Pyongyang must demonstrate its seriousness about denuclearization through actions before resuming six-party talks.

Experts say if the report is confirmed true, it would water down Beijing's ongoing effort to engage in talks to resolve North Korea's nuclear problem, negatively impacting the possible resumption of the multilateral forum.

"I don't know whether Pyongyang consulted with Beijing before restarting the nuclear reactor, but either way China is put in a difficult position in discussion with Washington and Seoul," said Paik Hak-soon, a researcher at the Sejong Institute.

China and North Korea have recently kept in step with each other, urging the resumption of the six-party forum.

During a summit held on the sidelines of the G20 meeting in Russia last week, Chinese President Xi Jinping told his U.S. counterpart Barack Obama that China wanted to reopen the six-party talks as soon as possible.

Wang Guangzhong, deputy chief of general staff at China's People's Liberation Army, upon talks with James Miller, U.S. undersecretary of defense for policy, Friday, also said, "All relevant parties need to take note of active change by North Korea," calling for engagement.

In line with Beijing's stance, the North also undertook a series of reconciliatory gestures recently, which occurred after it stoked tensions early this year by conducting its third nuclear test on Feb. 12.

Despite Beijing's efforts for an early resumption of the six-party talks that involve the two Koreas, the U.S., China, Russia, Japan, Seoul and Washington have insisted that they won't sit down with Pyongyang until the North demonstrates its seriousness about denuclearization.

The disarmament talks started in 2003 but have been stalled since late 2008 after North Korea walked out to protest the U.N.'s condemnations concerning a banned rocket launch.

Meanwhile, the North's move to restart its nuclear reactor is seen as sending a message to Washington that it wants to engage in talks.

"Historically, the U.S. came forward to the negotiation table with the North after the latter played the nuclear card," said Paik. "Reactions from Washington now come after a longer period of time, but the North still thinks it is the only way to approach Washington."

But many experts say the recent plutonium production in Yongbyon is not significant enough to move the U.S. to engage with the North.

"We have been expecting such activities from North Korea," said a foreign ministry official. "Our current position already includes such nuclear activities taken up by Pyongyang."




영변 원자로 재가동 관측, 6자회담 움직임에 변수

'北, 압박강도 높이며 김정은 체제 과시'…비핵화대화 전망 엇갈려

 

북한이 영변 핵 단지의 우라늄 농축시설을 확장한 데 이어 원자로 재가동에 들어갔다는 관측이 제기되면서 6자회담 재개와 관련된 현재의 움직임에 미칠 영향이 주목된다.

지난 2월 3차 핵실험을 감행한 북한은 4월 원자로를 포함해 핵시설을 재가동하겠다고 선언했으며 이와 관련된 움직임을 보이고 있다.

핵 활동으로 발생하는 방사성 물질 제논(Xe) 검출(6월말), 우라늄 농축시설 2배 확장(지난달), 원자로 재가동 관측 등이 그것이다.

일단 핵 능력 진전에 박차를 가하는 이런 내부 움직임이 최근 중국이 드라이브를 걸고 있는 비핵화 대화 재개 움직임에 장애물이 될 것이라는 관측이 많다.

북한 비핵화를 위한 6자회담을 비롯한 대화에 참여하겠다는 의사를 밝힌 북한의 진정성이 의심되는 상황이기 때문이다.

실제 지난 5월 대화공세에 나선 이후에도 북한은 비핵화 문제에 대해 변화된 입장을 대외적으로 밝힌 적이 없다.

한미 양국이 조속한 6자회담 재개를 강조하는 중국에 대해 '북한의 확실한 비핵화 신호가 선행돼야 한다'는 원칙을 확인한 것도 이런 맥락이다.

조태용 한반도평화교섭본부장은 지난 10일 한미 6자회담 수석대표 회담 뒤 기자들과 만나 '6자회담을 재개하려면 비핵화 회담이라는 것을 (북한이) 분명히 해야 한다'고 밝혔다.

정부 고위 소식통은 12일 '북한이 예고하고 그동안 징후도 있었던 것이므로 북한의 (최근) 핵 활동은 예상치 못한 새로운 상황은 아니다'면서 '한미 양국의 대응은 그런 상황까지 감안한 것'이라고 말했다.

뉴욕타임스(NYT)는 이날 3면에서 북한의 원자로 재가동 소식을 주요 기사로 전하면서 북한이 핵무기 개발을 포기하겠다는 약속없이 6자 회담 등 대화에 나서겠다는 입장을 밝히고 있지만 미국 등은 이를 수용할 수 없을 것이라고 진단했다.

미국과 한국 등은 북한이 궁극적으로 핵무기 개발을 포기해야만 북한 비핵화를 위한 6자 회담에 응한다는 확고한 입장이라는 것이다.

반면 북한의 핵 능력 진전이 예상외로 빠르게 진행될 경우 미국을 비롯한 주변국의 대응 움직임이 가속화되면서 비핵화 대화 재개 움직임에 속도가 붙을 가능성도 있다.

특히 우라늄농축시설 확충과 원자로 가동은 핵무기의 원료인 우라늄과 플루토늄 생산으로 이어진다는 점에서 이에 대한 국제사회의 대응이 시급히 이뤄져야 한다는 요구가 분출될 수도 있기 때문이다.

북한이 한미 양국에 노출된 영변 핵단지에서 대놓고 핵 활동을 하는 목적도 여기에 있다는 분석이 적지 않다.

비핵화 대화 사전조치를 요구하며 북미대화에 완고한 태도를 보이는 미국을 협상장으로 이끌어 내기 위해 위협의 강도를 높이고 있다는 것이다.

한 북핵 전문가는 '북한 입장에서 볼 때 비핵화 대화가 재개된 것도 아니므로 기존에 해오던 핵 활동을 멈출 이유가 없을 것'이라고 말했다.

뉴욕타임스는 북한이 대화공세와 함께 핵개발을 동시에 추진하는 것은 `김정은 체제'가 건재하다는 것을 대내외에 과시할 목적이라고 평가했다.

신문은 미국 터프츠대학 외교전문대학원인 플레처스쿨의 이성윤 교수의 말을 인용, '북한의 최근 대화 공세는 단기적으로는 김정은 국방위원회 제1위원장이 `북한의 영도자'로서 건재하다는 것을 알리고 장기적으로는 (비핵화를 거부하고) 핵무기 개발에 박차를 가하겠다는 의지를 보여주는 것'이라고 분석했다.

북한이 어떤 식으로든 협상이 진행되기 전까지는 핵능력 확충을 위한 움직임을 계속할 것이라는 전망도 적지 않다.

대화 재개 방법론에 대한 입장차를 좁히기 위한 한국, 미국, 중국 등 6자회담 당사국간 접점 찾기 노력이 계속되는 동안 핵 확충 활동으로 국제사회에 대한 위협 수위를 높일 것이라는 인식이다.

 
Emailmuchung@koreatimes.co.kr Article ListMore articles by this reporter
 
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