By Kim Young-jin
Seoul’s conditional offer for North Korean leader Kim Jong-il to attend an international nuclear summit next year showed its readiness to take the lead role in regional efforts to denuclearize the peninsula, analysts said Tuesday.
But the likelihood of the North accepting the invitation to attend the Nuclear Security Summit (NSS) in Seoul next March remained dim as Kim’s regime seems intent to hold on to its nuclear program, they said.
President Lee Myung-bak said Monday that if Pyongyang made a “firm and sincere” denuclearization commitment, then Kim would be welcome to attend the meeting along with some 50 other heads of state including U.S. President Barack Obama.
“It’s very unlikely for the North to accept the offer as President Lee basically demanded that it show its schedule to denuclearize,” said Choi Jin-wook, a senior researcher with the Korea Institute for National Unification.
“But the message is about South Korea’s determination to lead the talks with the North and make a breakthrough in inter-Korean relations.”
Lee’s offer came after regional players agreed that the two Koreas should hold bilateral denuclearization talks before any resumption of six-party talks on dismantling Pyongyang’s nuclear program.
“It was kind of a turning point for the Lee administration,” said Yoo Ho-yeol, a North Korea expert at Korea University. “It shows Seoul will be much more eager to join neighboring countries to include the North in multilateral talks.”
Efforts to resume the six-party forum, stalled since 2009, have picked up speed after the North disclosed a sprawling uranium enrichment program last November that is capable of producing weapons of mass destruction.
The North, suffering from a food shortage, has called for an unconditional resumption of the aid-for-denuclearization talks. But Seoul and Washington have demanded it first prove its genuine intent to denuclearize.
Yoo said the North remains intent on keeping the program in the run-up to 2012, the year it has proclaimed it will emerge as a powerful nation. He added that if the North does send a representative to the NSS, it would likely put forth an aggressive policy to keep the program.
Watchers have said the North’s reaction to the international effort against the Libyan regime, which jettisoned its nuclear program, has hardened Pyongyang’s resolve to not follow in the same footsteps.
The power transfer now underway to Kim’s inexperienced youngest son, Kim Jong-un, also decreases chances of denuclearization, they say.
Pyongyang has yet to respond to the South’s proposal for unprecedented bilateral denuclearization talks. It has long refused such dialogue, preferring to discuss the matter exclusively with Washington.
Attention will now focus on whether Seoul will continue to demand apologies for Pyongyang’s deadly sinking of the warship Cheonan and bombing of Yeonpyeong Island last year.
“Lee’s offer aims to target the North’s desperate (economic) situation. If they want talks, they can’t bypass the apologies,” Choi said.
In contrast, Yoo said Lee’s offer indicated that Seoul would address the nuclear program and the provocations on separate tracks.
“If the North doesn’t accept the offer for bilateral contact, the South could try to urge it into the multilateral channel by saying it is not inflexible on the preconditions. Multilateral dialogue might be possible in the coming weeks,” he said.
Next year’s NSS will be the second summit following the inaugural event in Washington in 2010 hosted by Obama.