China in awkward position while protecting its ally

By Chung Min-uck

As nations ratchet up efforts to impose additional sanctions on North Korea over its long-range rocket launch by issuing a new United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution, all eyes are fixed on whether China, its closest ally, will support the move.

During a previous launch in April, the UNSC adopted a non-binding presidential statement instead of a resolution due to Beijing’s threatened veto.

While South Korea and the United States are expressing high hopes that Beijing will shift its position, experts are doubtful of such a change.

China voiced regret over North Korea's launch Wednesday saying that Pyongyang has an “obligation to comply with the provisions of the previous UNSC resolutions” but also added that the council’s reaction needs to be “careful and proper” so that peace and stability can be maintained on the Korean Peninsula.

Pyongyang is banned from using ballistic missile technology and has had various financial and trade sanctions imposed on it following nuclear tests that it carried out in 2006 and 2009, which came immediately after rocket launches.

A UNSC resolution can order new sanctions to be imposed but may only be adopted if all five veto-wielding permanent UNSC members, including China, accept it.

“China’s basic standpoint is to maintain peace and stability on the Korean peninsula and it will stay the same for a while,” said Lee Sang-sook, a professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy. “It also doesn’t want instability in the region amid its leadership transition.”

“Moreover, China knows that North Korea will never give up on its quest to develop a nuclear missile,” Lee added. “Imposing additional sanctions would only deteriorate the situation. It would not support imposing additional sanctions.”

“China is now in an awkward position,” said Jin Qiangyi, a professor at Yanbian University in China. “The launch is a frustrating thing for China because it has dented Beijing’s position of having the greatest influence on Pyongyang.”

Beijing had previously expressed concerns over the launch.

“By successfully launching a rocket, Pyongyang has shown the world that it acts according to its own interests,” said Jin Jingyi, a professor at Peking University in China. “Pyongyang will have more leverage in dealing with other nations than before.”

However, the experts said that Beijing’s longstanding policy on North Korea could be changed significantly in the future after the leadership transfer to Xi Jinping, the newly appointed leader of the Chinese Communist Party, is finalized, since the successful launch will undermine China’s security status in the long-term.

“After Xi becomes the official president of China early next year, a shift of Beijing’s North Korean policy is likely,” said Lee. “By next year, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s new regime is also expected to be stabilized. This would give China good momentum in seeking changes.”

“The latest conclusion that China came up with lately is that unification of the two Koreas is beneficial for China,” said the Yanbian University professor. “A divided Korean peninsula and closed North Korea are burdensome for China in terms of economic gains and security conditions.”

“Now Beijing and Seoul should cooperate on rethinking what is the best way of approaching Pyongyang. But it is unfortunate such coordination between the two nations is not progressing well at the moment.”