By Kim Young-jin
Disputes in Northeast Asia over islets and rocks have put relations in a tense holding pattern. The rising tension has revealed the political significance of the geographical features, despite their small size.
Analysts said Thursday that spats among Korea, China and Japan demonstrate the extent to which domestic politics, combined with festering historical animosity, can quickly throw the region into disarray.
“Right now there is a convergence of domestic politics and rising nationalism that could lead to escalation and miscalculations,” said Daniel Pinkston, an analyst with the International Crisis Group.
The tussling is reflective of fluctuating politics, with China preparing to handover of power to its fifth generation of communist party leaders in mid-October; Japan on the verge of a possible leadership change; and Seoul gearing up for elections in December.
Such changes may be pushing the players to court nationalist sentiment. Beijing, watchers say, is seeking to stoke nationalism to justify the continuation of its party rule and sweep the corruption scandal surrounding Bo Xiliai under the rug. In Japan, the aftermath of the March 11 earthquake and tsunami have prompted calls for a more robust posture on state affairs and crisis management.
The rumbling was triggered in part by President Lee Myung-bak’s surprise trip to the Dokdo Islets last month, which ignited an angry reaction in Japan ― despite a bump in Lee’s popularity here. Tokyo, experiencing a trend toward nationalism, then took the previously privately-held islands it calls Senkaku into public ownership, touching off the rancorous debate with Beijing, which also claims the archipelago.
The Sino-Japanese standoff set off alarms in Seoul over both the actions of both neighbors. In the case of Japan, animosity over Tokyo’s 1910-1945 colonization still prompts suspicion in both Korea and China.
“Countries that experienced Japan’s colonial rule are cautious of any assertiveness on the part of Japan, without a proper reflection of its past,” said Bong Young-shik, a senior researcher with the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, adding that its attitude on Senkaku could be a precursor to a harder line on Dokdo.
The stance of Beijing is also of concern.
According to Chinese reports this week, Beijing plans to monitor uninhabited maritime features including Ieodo, a submerged rock controlled by Seoul, by 2015.
Beijing has this year stepped up its claim on the rock, which is 136 kilometers closer to the peninsula than the nearest Chinese territory. Many suspect China’s claim is tied to the expansion of its naval forces, and growing assertiveness over territorial disputes with East and Southeast Asian nations.
It has also raised concerns with the launch of its first aircraft carrier, a move tied to a shift in naval strategy from defending territorial waters to “defending to open seas.” Watchers say Beijing is working on the modernization of its maritime forces to enforce its jurisdictional claims in the East and South China Sea.
Analysts suggest the only way out of the ongoing quagmire is to manage tensions until they can be dealt with under a larger cooperative framework. But they say such cooperation would require visionary leadership in each the countries.
“If there is a silver lining, it is that we will no longer underestimate the political significance of all these long-suppressed historical and territorial issues in Northeast Asia,” Bong said. “If Asian countries are truly committed to creating a regional community than (the historical conflicts) are something they have to deal with.”
