By Kim Young-jin
Japan could use upcoming talks with North Korea to strengthen its hand against Seoul amid persisting tension over President Lee Myung-bak’s visit to the Dokdo Islets, analysts said Thursday.
North Korea, meanwhile, is expected to exploit the flare-up to drive a wedge amongst regional players and ratchet up pressure to resume negotiations, during the talks slated for Aug. 29 in Beijing.
The Japan-North talks were announced Tuesday, four days after Lee surprised many with his trip to the nation’s rocky outcroppings that Tokyo also claims as its territory. The sides have exchanged heated rhetoric since, with Japan threatening to take the issue to international arbitration.
“Japanese policymakers may think that an improvement in ties with Pyongyang could pressure the South to rethink its policy toward Tokyo and to think twice about excluding Japan when it comes to dealing with the North,” one analyst said, asking not to be named.
The announcement came after the Red Cross societies from both sides met to consult over the repatriation of remains from Japan’s occupation of the peninsula.
The next rounds are expected to discuss the North’s abduction of Japanese citizens and allowing Japanese people to visit the graves of relatives who died in the North during and after World War II.
It will also be a litmus test of the North’s willingness to engage regional players under new leader Kim Jong-un, who took power in December.
Analysts say Pyongyang is likely to stick to its favored tactic of exploiting diplomatic rifts among regional players, which they say increases pressure on Seoul and others to resume engagement.
“It cannot be ruled out that the North is trying to create rifts amongst Tokyo, Washington and Seoul –– with the exclusion of South Korean officials,” Park Young-ho, an analyst with the Korea Institute for National Unification said.
In the wake of the North’s 2009 nuclear test and deadly provocations the following year, Seoul, Washington, and Tokyo bolstered trilateral cooperation, making Pyongyang’s method of exploiting diplomatic divides among regional players more difficult.
Others said Kim could be seeking to weaken the trilateral coalition and eventually seek bilateral talks with Washington, its preferred negotiation partner.
In February the North agreed to take denuclearization steps in exchange for U.S. aid but scuttled the deal with a long-range rocket launch that sent tensions soaring.
Analysts said the move was to bolster Kim’s military credentials.
The deal was said to pave the way back to dormant denuclearization talks that involve Pyongyang, Seoul, Washington, Tokyo, Moscow and Beijing.
The six-party talks have not been held since Pyongyang walked away after being hit with sanctions for its 2009 nuclear and missile tests. Many say the real momentum towards the talks is unlikely until after the elections in the United States and South Korea are held later this year.
It is widely believed that Pyongyang will be hard pressed to relinquish its nuclear program, which it sees as its deterrence.
Still many experts believe the sixparty talks are the best way to mitigate further expansion while keeping tabs on the North.
Seoul and Pyongyang are highly unlikely to experience a thaw under the Lee Myung-bak administration, with which it has held icy ties since 2008, analysts say.
The North recently rejected a South Korean proposal to hold a working-level meeting on reuniting separated family members
