The Korea Times
amn_close.png
amn_bl.png
National
  • Politics
  • Foreign Affairs
  • Multicultural Community
  • Defense
  • Environment & Animals
  • Law & Crime
  • Society
  • Health & Science
amn_bl.png
Business
  • Tech
  • Bio
  • Companies
  • World Expo 2030
amn_bl.png
Finance
  • Companies
  • Economy
  • Markets
  • Cryptocurrency
amn_bl.png
Opinion
  • Editorial
  • Columns
  • Thoughts of the Times
  • Cartoon
  • Today in History
  • Blogs
  • Tribune Service
  • Blondie & Garfield
  • Letter to the Editor
amn_bl.png
Lifestyle
  • Travel & Food
  • Trends
  • People & Events
  • Books
  • Around Town
  • Fortune Telling
amn_bl.png
Entertainment & Arts
  • K-pop
  • Films
  • Shows & Dramas
  • Music
  • Theater & Others
amn_bl.png
Sports
  • Hangzhou Asian Games
amn_bl.png
World
  • SCMP
  • Asia
amn_bl.png
Video
  • Korean Storytellers
  • POPKORN
  • Culture
  • People
  • News
amn_bl.png
Photos
  • Photo News
  • Darkroom
amn_NK.png amn_DR.png amn_LK.png amn_LE.png
  • bt_fb_on_2022.svgbt_fb_over_2022.svg
  • bt_twitter_on_2022.svgbt_twitter_over_2022.svg
  • bt_youtube_on_2022.svgbt_youtube_over_2022.svg
  • bt_instagram_on_2022.svgbt_instagram_over_2022.svg
The Korea Times
amn_close.png
amn_bl.png
National
  • Politics
  • Foreign Affairs
  • Multicultural Community
  • Defense
  • Environment & Animals
  • Law & Crime
  • Society
  • Health & Science
amn_bl.png
Business
  • Tech
  • Bio
  • Companies
  • World Expo 2030
amn_bl.png
Finance
  • Companies
  • Economy
  • Markets
  • Cryptocurrency
amn_bl.png
Opinion
  • Editorial
  • Columns
  • Thoughts of the Times
  • Cartoon
  • Today in History
  • Blogs
  • Tribune Service
  • Blondie & Garfield
  • Letter to the Editor
amn_bl.png
Lifestyle
  • Travel & Food
  • Trends
  • People & Events
  • Books
  • Around Town
  • Fortune Telling
amn_bl.png
Entertainment & Arts
  • K-pop
  • Films
  • Shows & Dramas
  • Music
  • Theater & Others
amn_bl.png
Sports
  • Hangzhou Asian Games
amn_bl.png
World
  • SCMP
  • Asia
amn_bl.png
Video
  • Korean Storytellers
  • POPKORN
  • Culture
  • People
  • News
amn_bl.png
Photos
  • Photo News
  • Darkroom
amn_NK.png amn_DR.png amn_LK.png amn_LE.png
  • bt_fb_on_2022.svgbt_fb_over_2022.svg
  • bt_twitter_on_2022.svgbt_twitter_over_2022.svg
  • bt_youtube_on_2022.svgbt_youtube_over_2022.svg
  • bt_instagram_on_2022.svgbt_instagram_over_2022.svg
  • Login
  • Register
  • Login
  • Register
  • The Korea Times
  • search
  • all menu
  • Login
  • Subscribe
  • Photos
  • Video
  • World
  • Sports
  • Opinion
  • Entertainment & Art
  • Lifestyle
  • Finance
  • Business
  • National
  • North Korea
  • 1

    Royal palaces in Seoul offer free access during Chuseok holiday

  • 3

    Koreans adapt to soaring food prices

  • 5

    Travis King in US custody after expulsion by N. Korea: Washington officials

  • 7

    BTS' Jungkook to drop 2nd solo single

  • 9

    American soldier who crossed into North Korea arrives back in the US, video appears to show

  • 11

    Blinken to release Chuseok message for S. Koreans for 3rd year

  • 13

    Over 2,200 aging applicants for reunions of separated families died this year: gov't data

  • 15

    Daejeon hosts 14th int'l play festival

  • 17

    Korea claims third consecutive gold in men's team sabre fencing

  • 19

    S. Korea elected as IAEA board member for 2023-25

  • 2

    INTERVIEWRisk-averse culture is forcing daring creators to flee showbiz

  • 4

    Korean Baek In-chul wins stunning swimming gold

  • 6

    Education ministry prohibits parents from recording classes

  • 8

    Korea wins gold in League of Legends competition; Faker tops podium

  • 10

    Drug offenders using dark web increasing rapidly: report

  • 12

    BOK likely to stand pat again next month on Fed's rate freeze, slowdown

  • 14

    1st gold in Hangzhou leaves N. Korean shooters in tears

  • 16

    N. Korea stipulates nuclear force-building policy in constitution

  • 18

    China launches first cross-sea bullet train line near Taiwan Strait

  • 20

    Kim Woo-min snatches gold in freestyle swimming

Close scrollclosebutton

Close for 24 hours

Open
  • The Korea Times
  • search
  • all menu
  • Login
  • Subscribe
  • Photos
  • Video
  • World
  • Sports
  • Opinion
  • Entertainment & Art
  • Lifestyle
  • Finance
  • Business
  • National
  • North Korea
National
  • Politics
  • Foreign Affairs
  • Multicultural Community
  • Defense
  • Environment & Animals
  • Law & Crime
  • Society
  • Health & Science
Sat, September 30, 2023 | 22:18
-------------------------
NK collapse may trigger Sino-US war: expert
Posted : 2012-08-09 17:33
Updated : 2012-08-09 17:33
Print PreviewPrint Preview
Font Size UpFont Size Up
Font Size DownFont Size Down
  • facebook
  • twitter
  • kakaolink
  • whatsapp
  • reddit
  • mailto
  • link
In the event North Korea collapses, it could cause a war between the United States and China in the coming decades, a U.S. security expert warned Wednesday.

James Dobbins
By Kim Young-jin

In the event North Korea collapses, it could cause a war between the United States and China in the coming decades, a U.S. security expert warned Wednesday.

A report by James Dobbins, director of the International Security and Defense Policy Center at the RAND National Defense Research Institute, said in such a scenario the militaries might clash while trying to secure the impoverished nation’s borders and weapons of mass destruction.

“The likelihood of confrontations, accidental or otherwise, between U.S. and Chinese forces is high in this scenario, with significant potential for escalation,” he wrote in the report, published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies. He added that economic or political instability would be likely culprits behind any collapse.

Planning for contingencies in North Korea has long concerned analysts as it raises the possibility of miscalculation when soldiers from the U.S., China, both Koreas and possibly Russia could be involved. It would also raise the prospect of the peninsula being unified under South Korean control. However, it remains a diplomatic minefield given Beijing’s close ties with Pyongyang.

In such a case, he said China would send troops into the North to secure its borders, predicting collapse could cause thousands or even millions of refugees to flee the country.

The United States, meanwhile, would move quickly with South Korea to try to secure ballistic-missile-launch and weapons of mass destruction sites, mobilizing special-operations forces.

“China…would view the insertion of U.S. and South Korean forces north of the Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) with concern, and might move its own forces in, if it had not already begun to do so, both to contain the disorder and to pre-empt a South Korean­American takeover of the entire country,” Dobbins said.

Whether and how the North could collapse has been a hot topic for decades. The debate was further fueled by the recent power transition to young leader Kim Jong-un following the death of his father Kim Jong-il last year, though the handover has thus far proceeded smoothly by outside accounts. Experts have projected that hundreds of thousands of soldiers would be required to secure North Korea if it were to collapse even under benign circumstances.

The warning comes as Washington shifts its military’s focus from the Middle East to Asia, a pivot that aims to maintain its sway in the region and that analysts say is related to China’s rapid rise.

“Despite cautious and pragmatic Chinese policies, the risk of conflict with the United States remains, and this risk will grow in consequence and perhaps in probability as China's strength increases,” Dobbins said.

He added other sources of Sino-U.S. conflict could include changes to the situation in Taiwan, Sino-American confrontation in cyberspace, and disputes arising from Beijing’s “uneasy” relations with Japan and India.
Emailyjk@koreatimes.co.kr Article ListMore articles by this reporter
 
miguel
wooribank
LG
Top 10 Stories
1Guide to Chuseok celebrations across Korea Guide to Chuseok celebrations across Korea
2Chuseok exodus begins ahead of extended 6-day holiday Chuseok exodus begins ahead of extended 6-day holiday
3Korea sees record-low births in July Korea sees record-low births in July
4Hyundai E&C to build upmarket apartment complex in Seoul's Gwanak District Hyundai E&C to build upmarket apartment complex in Seoul's Gwanak District
5Political battle intensifies after court rejects Lee's arrest warrant Political battle intensifies after court rejects Lee's arrest warrant
6Korea on track to prove esports prowess at Asian Games Korea on track to prove esports prowess at Asian Games
7[INTERVIEW] Risk-averse culture is forcing daring creators to flee showbiz INTERVIEWRisk-averse culture is forcing daring creators to flee showbiz
8DMZ Open Int'l Music Festival to be held in Goyang in November DMZ Open Int'l Music Festival to be held in Goyang in November
9Lotte focuses on health care, mobility to spur growth Lotte focuses on health care, mobility to spur growth
10Two Koreas trade barbs over nuclear war Two Koreas trade barbs over nuclear war
Top 5 Entertainment News
1Trailblazing nonagenarian artist honored for redefining Korean fiber art Trailblazing nonagenarian artist honored for redefining Korean fiber art
2[INTERVIEW] 'Coexistence of different art hubs across Asia is necessary': Art Week Tokyo Director INTERVIEW'Coexistence of different art hubs across Asia is necessary': Art Week Tokyo Director
3[INTERVIEW] With '30 Days,' Kang Ha-neul finds new level of comfort in acting INTERVIEWWith '30 Days,' Kang Ha-neul finds new level of comfort in acting
4Rwandan artists bring diversity to Seoul's art scene Rwandan artists bring diversity to Seoul's art scene
5[INTERVIEW] ONEUS returns as 'mermaid prince' INTERVIEWONEUS returns as 'mermaid prince'
DARKROOM
  • Turkey-Syria earthquake

    Turkey-Syria earthquake

  • Nepal plane crash

    Nepal plane crash

  • Brazil capital uprising

    Brazil capital uprising

  • Happy New Year 2023

    Happy New Year 2023

  • World Cup 2022 Final - Argentina vs France

    World Cup 2022 Final - Argentina vs France

CEO & Publisher : Oh Young-jin
Digital News Email : webmaster@koreatimes.co.kr
Tel : 02-724-2114
Online newspaper registration No : 서울,아52844
Date of registration : 2020.02.05
Masthead : The Korea Times
Copyright © koreatimes.co.kr. All rights reserved.
  • About Us
  • Introduction
  • History
  • Contact Us
  • Products & Services
  • Subscribe
  • E-paper
  • RSS Service
  • Content Sales
  • Site Map
  • Policy
  • Code of Ethics
  • Ombudsman
  • Privacy Statement
  • Terms of Service
  • Copyright Policy
  • Family Site
  • Hankook Ilbo
  • Dongwha Group