By Kim Young-jin
North Korea’s mixed moves over a nuclear deal with the United States could reflect competing views within the communist state’s fledgling regime, an expert said Tuesday.
Pyongyang last week announced it would launch a long-rage rocket in mid-April to mark the anniversary of its founder Kim Il-sung, a move that Washington said would breach a recent agreement to provide food aid to the North in exchange for nuclear concessions.
But the North Korean regime lead by Kim Jong-un, who has taken over after the death of Kim Jong-il, his father, has also invited U.N. nuclear inspectors back into the country, a key part of the U.S. deal.
Yoo Ho-yeol, a North Korea expert at Korea University, the moves could reflect differing views between soft and hard-liners within the regime.
“There could be some kind of conflict between the North’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, who want to make progress with the United States and the military which is pushing for the rocket launch which was probably already planned,” he said.
“They seem to have decided in favor of the launch and are now rationalizing it as a matter of sovereignty.”
Pyongyang has drawn heavy criticism for the plan, which it says intends to put a satellite into orbit for scientific purposes. Seoul believes it is a cover for a long-range missile test using the same technology that would advance the North’s nuclear weapons program.
Many analysts have connected the launch test to Kim Jong-un’s need to consolidate his power, saying the regime will use it to show progress in the impoverished country’s drive to modernize. Pyongyang has said it will emerge as a “strong and prosperous” country this year.
While most say the North appears to be transitioning smoothly in the aftermath of Kim Jong-il’s death in December, questions still linger over the leadership of Kim Jong-un, who is thought to be only in his late twenties.
Bahng Tae-seop, an analyst with the Samsung Economic Research Institute, said while he did not believe a “severe cleavage” had emerged, the moves reflected two consistent voices emanating from the North.
“This is typical of Pyongyang’s two-track policy. On one hand, the hardliners are saying we need to protect the country and become ‘strong and prosperous.’ On the other, they are saying ‘We can be more flexible.’”
The North last month agreed to place a moratorium on missile and nuclear tests and suspend its uranium enrichment at Yongbyon in exchange for 240,000 tons of U.S. aid, which would come in the form of high protein biscuits and other items targeting high-risk groups such as children.
Other observers speculated the North could be attempting to raise the stakes for negotiations with the rocket launch, saying that Washington pulling away from the deal could make it look as if it were failing to live up to its stance that humanitarian assistance should be apolitical.
Other theories include Pyongyang perhaps planning to back out of the launch, making the regime look suddenly reasonable after years of isolation.