By Kim Young-jin
North Korea should terminate its mid-range missile program and join relevant international treaties if it wants the world to believe that its rocket launches are actually for scientific purposes, a security expert said Monday.
The North has drawn criticism for its recently-announced plan to launch a long-range rocket next month, which it asserts is to put a satellite into orbit but is widely seen as cover for a long-range missile test using the same technology.
Daniel Pinkston, an analyst with the International Crisis Group, said Pyongyang’s ballistic missile arsenal –– in addition to its provocative nuclear program — undermines any claim that the launch is for science.
“While they did announce their peaceful intent...if this really were the case, they would have no need for medium-range ballistic missiles, which are not for launching satellites but military purposes,” he said.
“So if they only have peaceful intent, they should abandon the medium range missiles they have. There are also treaties and protocol in outer space law (it would have to follow).”
The North is believed to have more than 1,000 missiles including intermediate range missiles capable of striking Japan as well as U.S. bases in the Pacific.
The launch would be Pyongyang’s third announced attempt since 1998 to send a satellite into space aboard a long-range rocket.
Despite the North’s repeated claims to an inherent right to a peaceful use of space, any testing of multi-stage rockets have been banned under U.N. Security Council Resolution 1874, which was set in place after the country’s second nuclear test, in 2009.
Experts say North Korean engineers apply the learning that takes place during the launches to missile development, amid fears that it could mount a nuclear warhead on a long-range missile.
Pinkston added that the North’s withdrawal from the nuclear non-proliferation treaty in 2003, violations of safeguard agreements with the International Atomic Energy Agency and nuclear weapons tests were all part of a pattern of behavior that warranted suspicion over the tests.
He said Pyongyang could follow the precedent set by former Soviet republics that abandoned their ballistic missiles and increased transparency and compliance with the international community to facilitate peaceful space activity.
While Pinkston said such an occurrence was unlikely, he said the international community may have missed past opportunities to explore peaceful space opportunities with the North.
“North Korea is not interested in that process,” he said. “But at the same time, I don’t think anyone really questioned (the North) when they made these announcements in 2009. The proper road map for engaging in the peaceful exploration of outer space should have at least been presented to them.”
In 2000, late North Korean leader Kim Jong-il reportedly offered to end his country’s missile program in exchange for assistance with satellite launches from the international community.
“People took that as a joke. It is possible that opportunities would not have been lost if more creative diplomacy had been used at the time,” the expert said.
The announced long-range rocket launch, planned for between April 12 and 16, is seen as a move to consolidate the power of Kim’s son, who is in the process of taking power after his father’s death late last year.
Pyongyang says the Unha-3 rocket carrying earth observation satellite Kwangmyongsong-3 will blast off from its satellite launch station in North Pyongan Province.
North Korea has twice tried and failed to put satellites into orbit with the payloads falling into the Pacific Ocean.
The launch intends to celebrate the 100th birth anniversary of the country’s late founder Kim Il-sung, the grandfather of current leader Kim Jong-un.