By Park Si-soo
Terrorist attacks around the world have given Koreans a sense of urgency to take global measures to thwart possible strikes. Yet few people here think such an event could actually occur on Korean soil.
North Korea’s possession of nuclear weapons and repeated warnings of turning Seoul into a “sea of fire” have also fallen short of making them feel threatened.
Against this backdrop, a world-renowned American scholar of terrorism warned that a terrorist attack on South Korea with conventional not to mention nuclear weapons is a constant possibility.
“I would say it (nuclear terrorism) is not impossible,” Graham Allison, professor at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, said in an interview with The Korea Times in Seoul, Tuesday. “How could a (nuclear) bomb explode in Seoul? I think it would come from North Korea or would come through a covered mechanism.” He defined nuclear terrorism as the “single biggest threat to international security.”
The interview was held on the heels of his meeting with President Lee Myung-bak, the host of the Seoul Nuclear Security Summit that will bring together the leaders from 53 nations on March 26 and 27.
The 72-year-old met Lee as a member of the Eminent Persons Group, formed to prepare for a successful hosting of the summit. The 15-member group includes former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, former Indian President Abdul Kalam, former Singaporean Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong, former International Atomic Energy Agency chief Hans Blix and former Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov.
Allison said one of the most urgent problems Seoul should address to enhance nuclear security is preventing the North from selling nuclear materials and weapons to other countries.
“Suppose that North Korea sold nuclear bomb to Al-Qaeda. Now what’s going to happen?” he asked.
He didn’t rule out the possibility that the hunger-stricken North could export its highly enriched uranium (HEU) or equipment that can produce weapon-useable material. Pyongyang is suspected of having provided Syria with its homegrown technology to build a nuclear reactor ㅡ as it did to Libya.
“They (the North) sold a huge reactor to Syria and they got paid,” he said. “The reactor could produce enough plutonium by the day for Syria’s first nuclear bomb. North Korea could make another sale for money.”
The scholar called on the Seoul government to work closely with its allies and neighboring countries in preparation for an emergency situation that could occur in Pyongyang.
“Such a weak regime will eventually collapse,” he said. “If that happens, what will happen to its nuclear weapons?”
For thorough readiness he said South Korea, the United States and China should “all be sitting and talking candidly” about what’s going to happen in the North and how to jointly react so as to maintain peace on the Korean Peninsula.
He warned that under the current level of anti-nuclear terrorism measures, the chance of a nuclear explosion somewhere in the world by the end of 2014 is “more than likely at 50 percent plus.”
“The U.S. is the most attractive target,” Allison said. “But I also say Mumbai is extremely vulnerable to nuclear terrorism because there are hundreds of nuclear bombs in Pakistan, which is a fragile state. Also living next to North Korea is very dangerous.”