By Kim Young-jin
With China’s presumed next leader Xi Jinping raising his profile through a closely-watched visit to the United States, some here are wondering what his emerging leadership will mean for Beijing’s oft-criticized policy on North Korea.
Experts say major changes are unlikely as Vice President Xi’s need to consolidate power will require him to above all, maintain his country’s stance of prioritizing stability in the nuclear-armed North.
Like all incoming Chinese leaders, Xi, expected to take power when President Hu Jintao steps down later this year, has not revealed much about his policy preferences.
“He has no special experience with Korean affairs,” said Bonnie Glaser, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. “At least in the next few years, I expect he will support a policy that is aimed at ensuring stability in North Korea and strengthening Sino-North Korea relations.”
The North’s closest ally and biggest economic partner, Beijing came under criticism for what was seen by many as a passive response to the North’s two deadly provocations on the South in 2010.
Analysts have long said China values stability on its borders the most when it comes to the North, fearing instability in the Stalinist state could trigger a flood of refugees that would disrupt the world’s second-largest economy.
Bahng Tae-seop of the Samsung Economic Research Institute said longstanding relations between the old guards of the two militaries would make it difficult for Xi to change course should he want to.
“If Xi were to take a harsh approach to the North, the Chinese military would object and he would have to listen,” he said.
The analyst added that China is likely to urge the North to refrain from provocative behavior especially during the transition to Xi. Many have speculated that the North could conduct a third nuclear test in a bid to consolidate Kim’s power.
Xi is likely to stay the course when comes the North’s nuclear program as well, observers said.
In a statement upon arriving in the United States, Xi said his goal was to implement the “important consensus” reached between Hu and U.S. President Barack Obama during their summit last year.
During those talks, the two leaders expressed concerns regarding the North’s uranium enrichment program and called for ``concrete and effective steps” to achieve denuclearization. Beijing has been pushing for a resumption of the multilateral negotiations to denuclearize the North.
In the past, Xi has raised eyebrows with remarks about the Peninsula.
Veteran liberal politician Park Jie-won said in 2010 that Xi criticized Lee Myung-bak’s hard line policy on Pyongyang during a meeting with late former President Kim Dae-jung a year earlier. Last year Beijing backpedaled when Xi said the 1950-53 Korean War “a just war to defend peace against aggression from the U.S.”