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Striking linkages between Syria and North Korea are raising interest over what the ongoing crisis in the Middle Eastern nation means for the authoritarian regime in Pyongyang.
Damascus, under heavy international pressure for its withering crackdown on internal dissent, remains at the moment one of the North’s dwindling number of autocratic friends in the Arab world ㅡ and a suspected proliferation partner ㅡ following a year of popular uprisings.
Drawing keen attention are the similarities between the leaders of the two regimes, Bashar al-Assad and Kim Jong-un, who both inherited dictatorships from their fathers and carry the enormous challenge of holding onto power amid growing isolation and troubled economies.
Some say the bloody situation in Syria could present a worrisome omen for Kim Jong-un, whose regime is still finding its feet in the aftermath of his father’s death in December.
“It’s fair to say that North Korean leaders are watching events unfold and are probably concerned or even alarmed,” Peter Beck, a Korea expert and head of the Asia Foundation’s Korea office, said. “Hopefully they are getting the message that without reform, pressure will build.”
Connections between the two regimes abound.
Assad was quick to send words of congratulation to Kim Jong-un after the latter took power, a move prominently featured by the North’s ruling party mouthpiece. Beck said the high-profile coverage was potentially a warning to the people to not even think about an uprising.
Both men took power while still young and without much time to prepare before being thrust into the limelight. Both were educated in Europe and raised hopes for reform when they took over. Assad, a British-trained doctor, lifted the country’s decades-old state of emergency in April but followed that move by sending tanks to cities to quell demonstrations.
Both regimes are seen by some as being protected by major world players at the U.N. Security Council, where Russia and China vetoed a resolution against Assad. The same countries were criticized for blocking censure of the North for its 2010 sinking of the warship Cheonan.
And together they are raising eyebrows with proliferation activities: U.S. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper recently said the North was exporting ballistic missiles to Syria and that it had helped develop a nuclear reactor there that Israel destroyed in 2007.
To be sure, the countries are different in many respects, most notably the ethnic divisions in Syria that are not a factor for the North’s closed society. Pyongyang has a major economic lifeline in its ally China, while the Syrian economy has tanked under the weight of sanctions, which some say will lead to Assad’s undoing.
Some, such as Bahng Tae-seop of the Samsung Economic Research Institute in Seoul, argue that while the two leaders share similarities, they appeared to be on quite different trajectories, with the Kim Jong-un regime at least outwardly projecting a sense of stability.
“Many believe Kim’s succession is going smoothly. He probably notices what is happening in the Middle East but is focused on his own succession process,” he said.
Kim, thought to be in his late twenties, has signaled he will continue his father’s military-first policy and will likely push on with the country’s nuclear program at least in the short term. Whether he will pursue badly-needed economic reforms remains up in the air.
Beck of the Asia Foundation hoped Pyongyang would use Syria and another hotly-discussed regime, one that has apparently embraced the path of reform, as opposing examples when charting its own path.
“My hope is that the North is studying the case in Myanmar as closely as that of Syria. Myanmar shows there is a path forward that doesn’t involve killing your own people,” he said.
