 A man loads a sack of rice into a truck at a customs office in the Chinese border city of Tumen on Jan 12. According to Do Hee-yoon, head of the Citizens’ Coalition for Human Rights of Abductees and North Korean Refugees, the truck is preparing to enter North Korea. / Yonhap |
By Kang Hyun-kyung
China reportedly delivered food aid to North Korea in January amid speculation that its decades-long benefactor had decided to give rice and crude oil.
If this report is confirmed to be true, it will inevitably affect policy options that South Korea can take. Seoul had implied a large scale humanitarian assistance would be linked to the North's efforts for denuclearization.
On Monday, China urged the international community to give humanitarian assistance to the North. But it didn’t confirm the Tokyo Shinbum’s report that it had decided to give the North 500,000 tons of rice and 250,000 tons of crude oil.
Activist Do Hee-yoon of Citizens’ Coalition for Human Rights of Abductees and North Korean Refugees was quoted by AFP as saying that thousands of lorries laden with rice were seen entering North Korea for 10 days starting on Jan. 9.
“Trucks laden with rice sacks were seen crossing the border into the North at various places including Tumen, Dandong and Jian,” he said. “The delivery of rice aid was apparently completed within a pretty short time span.” He added it was quite rare for China to provide North Korea with such massive food aid at one go.
Asking for anonymity, a government official said China providing 500,000 tons of rice was hard to believe.
He said the scale of China’s alleged humanitarian assistance is big enough to meet North Korea’s annual need and if confirmed to be true, the North won’t feel the need to return to the stalled six-party talks this year. He questioned the accuracy of the media report.
South Korea has maintained that no strings are attached to its humanitarian assistance to the North, but that aid will have political implications if the volume reaches more than 400,000 tons of rice. Seoul’s position on massive food aid indicates that the humanitarian assistance could be used as quid pro quo to North Korea’s good behavior if the scale is big enough to meet its annual needs.
Meanwhile, China’s possible food aid comes amid the coincidence of a leadership succession in China and the abrupt change in ruler in North Korea following Kim Jong-il’s death in December.
In the impoverished North, a young, inexperienced leader is seeking to consolidate power after his father’s demise.
In China, Vice President Xi Jinping is to take over power from President Hu Jintao at the end of the year and he will begin ruling the country from 2013 once Hu retires.
China has called for peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula, wanting the status quo to be maintained.
In the post-Kim Jong-il era, analysts say Beijing will want to manage the North Korea factor for the sake of its economic interests. Its food aid to the North comes against the backdrop of high uncertainty there after Kim’s death.
David Kang, professor of political science and international relations of University of Southern California, remains skeptical about the possibility of domestic politics affecting China’s foreign policy at a time of change in head of state.
“My own sense is that the Chinese leadership is very sensitive to the mood of the Chinese people and they react in ways to sometimes increase nationalism and sometimes to decrease it,” he said.
“But the Chinese leadership is probably less emotionally nationalistic than the people and it is more likely to take a long-term view on foreign relations. With a new leader taking power in China, my sense is that unless there is an unexpected crisis, they would be unlikely to start an incident merely to gain domestic support.”
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