By Kim Young-jin
Theories are swirling over why Kim Jong-nam, the eldest brother of new North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, is criticizing the dynastic succession underway in the communist state following the death of their father.
Kim, who lives in semi-exile in China, has called the hereditary transfer “difficult to tolerate” and warned of possible ambitions of the North’s powerful military. He made the remarks in a series of emails with a Japanese reporter who published the correspondence in a book released Wednesday.
The world is keenly watching to see whether Kim Jong-un, thought to be no older than 30, can fully grasp power after being groomed by late despot Kim Jong-il for only three years. Some say criticism from Jong-nam could deal a blow to the legitimacy of the fledgling regime.
According to Yoji Gomi, the journalist who received the emails, Kim says a coterie of the elite said to be guiding his brother would make him a “symbol” of the leadership while steering the country by committee.
"If the succession ends in failure, the military will wield the real power for sure," Kim was quoted as saying.
He also said the reforms needed to keep the country afloat would ultimately spell its end and suggested the North sank the warship Cheonan in a bid to bolster its military-first politics. Pyongyang vehemently denies the act.
“He’s venting his frustration over Kim Jong-un,” Choi Jin-wook, an analyst with the Korea Institute of National Unification, said. “He was the first in line for the succession but now his much younger brother is taking over. He wants to be treated better.”
Jong-nam is believed to have been passed over for the top job after falling out of favor with his father for attempting to enter Japan on a fake passport in 2001. Jong-un was reportedly tapped as heir after the late ruler’s stroke in 2008.
Choi said that Kim Jong-nam could also be seeking to raise his international profile to increase his security against possible attempts to silence him. Beijing, the North’s closest ally, is said to be giving him protection.
Gomi took the theory a step further.
“If Jong-un’s regime collapses, (Beijing) appears to be planning to send him to Pyongyang and make him the next leader,” said the senior staff writer at the Tokyo Shimbun.
Local papers speculated that Jong-nam could have opened up in a bid to reach out to the South, where the journalist has a wide network including North Korea experts and lawmakers. Some have cautiously raised the possibility he could defect to the South now that his father is gone.
He may be looking toward Japan where he indicated in the emails he could feel safer, some reports said.
Analysts suggest he could simply feel compelled to discuss the North’s political situation as the regime decides its policy.
Bahng Tae-seop of the Samsung Economic Research Institute said the attention to Jong-nam could be overblown by the Japanese media, which is intensely interested in the North given its proximity to the belligerent state.
“Media outlets could be trying to show Kim as a voice representing the North. But he has no real influence in Pyongyang,” the analyst said.
Kim did not respond to questions over whether he attended funeral services for his father, but the Japanese media have said he secretly visited Pyongyang to pay his respects.
He apparently agreed to answer all Gomi’s questions for publication “at a proper time” The journalist has decided to publish the book despite Kim’s request for a delay.