By Kim Young-jin
Talk about bad timing. Washington had finally broken through on North Korea’s nuclear program, agreeing to swap food aid in return for Pyongyang halting its enrichment of uranium. But just as reports of the deal broke, leader Kim Jong-il suffered a fatal heart attack, muddying the diplomatic waters.
The United States, which says it does not tie aid to politics, finds itself in an awkward position as the deal continues to twist in the wind. But as with so much with the secretive North, the issue of humanitarian assistance is far from cut-and-dry.
Pyongyang has sought to take advantage of the situation, confirming the deal through state media and accusing the Barack Obama administration of politicizing the matter. Complaining that the U.S. agreed to mobilize bigger shipments in a deal several years ago, Pyongyang left the door open for talks but said Washington must improve its “will for confidence-building” first.
Washington had been deliberating for months over how to assist the North Korean people. At play was whether the administration could secure the monitoring capabilities to verify the deliveries to prevent its diversion for military purposes. The halting of uranium enrichment could pave the way back to broader multilateral denuclearization talks.
In September, a group of U.S. non-governmental groups criticized the administration for being “indecisive” after conducting a fact-finding mission to the impoverished state. Their warnings echoed assessments by the United Nations that millions there direly need food.
The North’s malnutrition problems have been well documented. The groups, which visited with government support after the North was slammed with floods, painted a dire scene where children were “pushed over the edge by continued food shortages and diarrhea caused by dirty water and poor hygiene” and warning of a “far greater crisis.”
Kim’s death and the insertion of his youngest son Jong-un as leader have obscured prospects for the deal, as well as a return to disarmament talks. Aid workers have urged Washington not to wait too long to resume negotiations over the package.
“The longer you delay this decision, the more suffering there’s going to be,’’ David Austin, an official for Mercy Corps, one of the U.S. groups who visited the North, was quoted as saying. He added that it could take up to three months to prepare new food deliveries.
But Bruce Klingner, a senior fellow for the U.S.-based Heritage Foundation, warned that to focus on whether Washington had politicized aid to the North was “to lose the forest for the trees” and that attention should fall on the North’s behavior instead.
Analysts have noted that the North’s appeals last year were similar to those of the past, blaming the food situation on natural disasters and not its dilapidated state-run economy and refusal to implement reforms. Any provisions wouldn’t preclude the North from asking for a similar package next year, Klingner said.
Pyongyang’s restrictions on monitoring and suspicions that it diverts the aid for political and military purposes further compound the situation. Many say the North is likely to accept all it can while using funds to prepare for celebrations in April for the 100th birth anniversary of founder Kim Il-sung.
In the past, the World Food Program, through which Washington has provided assistance, has been forced to reduce its distribution due to lack of monitoring capabilities.
“After 15 years of North Korean requests, donor nations and organizations are increasingly reluctant to provide aid to a nation that refuses to take steps to ameliorate its food shortages,” he said. “Other nations that have suffered more recent natural catastrophes and require only a one-time infusion of aid are considered more worthy recipients.”
The expert said “the reality is that policy objectives and donor dynamics play a role in determining which potential recipients receive finite resources” despite the conception that aid is apolitical.
Such decisions are perhaps even more treacherous in Seoul, where the Lee Myung-bak administration has tied the provision of massive aid to denuclearization steps. Analysts say criticism that the stance contributed to a deadly spike in tension in 2010 prompted the government to adopt a more “flexible” line.
Seoul, Washington and other members of the six-party talks continue to engage in brisk diplomacy over how to approach the North’s new leadership and nuclear program. Though the horizon remains hazy, the complicated issue of food aid is more than likely to remain on the table.