By Kim Young-jin
North Korea’s behind-the-scenes elevation of Kim Jong-un, the inexperienced son of late ruler Kim Jong-il, as its new leader is raising huge questions about who is calling the shots in the Stalinist state and whether its system can hold.
On the surface, Pyongyang has moved with surprising speed to consolidate his power, naming him supreme commander of the North’s 1.2 million-strong military and placing him at the center of funeral proceedings since his father’s sudden death of heart failure last month.
But many are unconvinced that the 28-year-old has much real control given his inexperience in a society that prioritizes seniority.
Instead they offer that a coterie of powerful aides is in charge, comprised of powerful players assembled by the late “Dear Leader.” Such a scenario leaves the door open for cleavages of power after decades of iron-fisted authoritarian rule and raises concerns over the future of the nuclear-armed state.
“It’s fair to say at this point that the country is ruled by a junta of top military and party leaders putting forward Kim Jong-un as a figurehead,” said Michael Breen, author of “Kim Jong-il: North Korea’s Dear Leader” and a longtime North watcher. “Whether he makes the transition to real leader is an open question.”
Analysts say figures such as Jang Song-thaek, Kim’s powerful uncle and others close to the Kim family are tasked to guide him towards two key titles _ chairman of the National Defense Commission and head of the ruling Workers’ Party ― that would cement his leadership.
Ahead of such moves, the North’s propaganda machine has been in high gear to boost Jong-un’s profile. The efforts accelerated last week during massive, tautly-orchestrated memorial events during which officials hailed him as "the supreme leader of our party and army and people."
The state broadcasts of the events captured Jong-un alone or flanked by powerful military figures, at times seeming to exude emotions that some here took as signs of inexperience.
The young Kim remains mostly a mystery, including to ordinary North Koreans, as he only emerged as heir in September 2010. The likely plan, experts say, was for Kim Jong-il ― who had decades to burnish his credentials ― to teach his son statecraft as he gradually took power.
The late despot likely had the scenario of his sudden death in mind when he elevated his brother-in-law Jang to high posts, installing him as a regent.
To illustrate the murky leadership, Pyongyang’s first statement after the close of the official mourning period ― which vowed a hard line against the South ― came from the National Defense Committee (NDC) on which Jong-un does not sit.
Some experts said the NDC, the highest decision-making body, bore further watching as the statement could either show the NDC to be protecting the young Kim or launching out on its own.
Signs of friction between the NDC and the party or competition among various arms of state for resources could hint at a bumpy road under Kim Jong-un, Scott Snyder, an adjunct senior fellow for Korea studies at the Council on Foreign Relations wrote in a blog.
Military chief Ri Yong-ho, a rising star in the North said to be close to Jong-un, will also be watched with interest to see whether he and Jang are able to work together.
If power players do not deem Jong-un as capable over time, the possibility exists that they could slowly signal a transition with references in state media to such figures Jang and Ri playing crucial roles.
Upcoming opportunities to gauge Jong-un’s leadership include his birthday, which falls Jan. 8 and at which time celebrations could hint at the extent of his power; and the Feb. 16 birthday of Kim Jong-il by which time some expect the junior could have taken on additional titles.