By Kang Hyun-kyung
The Korean Peninsula will likely face a perfect storm in the new year, given the rare combination of abrupt power transition to Kim Jong-un in North Korea and scheduled leadership changes in China and Russia, analysts warned Friday. South Koreans and Americans will also go to the polls to elect their new leaders later this year.
The anticipated storm could become an opportunity in inter-Korean relations and the security situation in Northeast Asia, if Seoul manages the challenges wisely, they noted.
Rhee Tshang-chu, distinguished professor and chair of Global Politics and Economy Center at St. Petersburg State University in Russia, predicted the “China-Russia rivalry” over North Korea will make it difficult for South Korea to handle the North.
“There is a sort of China-Russia rivalry over North Korea after Russia ratcheted up efforts to improve ties with Pyongyang in recent years. Kim Jong-un is facing a lot better diplomatic landscape than his father who succeeded North Korea founder Kim Il-sung in 1994.” he said.
“North Korea’s isolation reached its severest level when Kim Jong-il succeeded his father. Its relations with Cold War allies such as China and Russia hit their lowest point.”
China is a decades-long benefactor of the North. Data shows that trade between the two has increased over the past years after Pyongyang faced international sanctions for its development and tests of nuclear weapons twice.
Moscow has turned its attention to the peninsula over the past years.
In August last year, Russia and North Korea agreed to construct an approximately 1,100-kilometer-long pipeline to send Russian natural gas to South Korea via the North during a summit held in Ulan Ude in Sakhalin.
Russia also sent the first cargo train through a restored railway connecting the far eastern city of Khasan to North Korea’s northeastern port city of Rajin in October.
China and Russia recognized Kim Jong-un as the leader of North Korea shortly after the death of his father.
Rhee said there is a black-and-white difference in the diplomatic landscapes facing the North in 1994 and 2012.
“In addition to China-Russia rivalry over the North, the United States is also likely to seek dialogue with North Korea after the death of Kim Jong-il. I believe the U.S. government will resume food aid to the North in the near future,” Rhee said.
The Russia expert said there was an important implication in the shift of the diplomatic landscape facing North Korea in the post-Kim Jong-il era for South Korea.
“As China and Russia tried to increase their influence over North Korea by beefing up economic cooperation, the North will be unlikely to seek aid from South Korea. Therefore, Seoul will find it tougher to deal with Pyongyang in 2012 to improve inter-Korean relations,” he said.
Rhee urged policymakers to demonstrate “diplomatic acumen” to manage the challenge.
Unlike the diplomatic scene, North Korea watchers said, economic conditions there are now worse than two decades ago.
David Kang, director and professor at the University of Southern California Korean Studies Institute, observed Kim Jong-un will face greater obstacles to ruling than his father did in 1994.
“In 1994, the devastating famine had yet to hit North Korea. The economy was still relatively robust and of course the nuclear issue had only begun to emerge,” Kang said.
Now North Korea is weaker and poorer and has faced almost two decades of withering international pressure over its nuclear policies and North Koreans themselves are slowly learning more about the outside world than before, he said.
Kim Sung-han, a professor at Korea University’s Graduate School of International Studies, called for wise diplomacy to deal with Pyongyang in the Kim Jong-un era.
He advised the government to have more contact with neighboring countries to resolve the North’s nuclear weapons program.