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Wed, August 10, 2022 | 01:37
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Experts raise possibility of Kim Jong-nam defecting to S. Korea
“김정남 돈줄 끊기면 남한으로 망명할 수도”
Posted : 2011-12-28 17:15
Updated : 2011-12-28 17:15
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Kim Jong-nam
By Lee Tae-hoon

Experts have cautiously raised the possibility of Kim Jong-nam, the first son of the late North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, turning his back on his communist country and defecting to South Korea.

“If Pyongyang cuts financial support to Kim Jong-nam who has been pushed out of power, it would be natural for him to weigh the option of defecting to Seoul,” said Yoon Kyu-sik, professor at the Army Consolidated Administrative School in Yeongnam, North Chungcheong Province, Wednesday.

Jong-nam, 40, has lived a life of reclusive luxury in Macau, allegedly under the protection of the Chinese government since he was caught in 2001 for entering Japan on a fake passport.

His half-brother Kim Jong-un, who has inherited his father’s role in the Kim Dynasty, reportedly plotted an assassination attempt on his elder brother after eliminating his close aides in the Stalinist North.

Yoon claimed that Jong-nam would decide to seek asylum if his younger brother Jong-un, who is believed to be in his late 20s, does not guarantee a quality life abroad and fails to revive his impoverished but nuclear-armed nation.

“If he sees no signs of improvement in the North, it is possible for Jong-nam to desert his country and make use of his highly valued information about the secretive communist regime for the reunification of the two Koreas,” he said.

Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, concurred with him, noting the strained relationship between the late Kim’s eldest and the third son.

“What appears to be certain is that Jong-un won’t be as caring and compassionate as his late father was to Jong-nam,” he said.

The North Korea expert underlined that it will be impossible for Jong-nam to return to the North or hold any significant title under his brother’s rule.

He said Jong-nam is also acutely aware that his brother would not allow him to stay in the North as this can be interpreted as a challenge to his authorities.

Sources say Jong-nam was not even invited to the funeral for his father Wednesday.

Yang said that Jong-un will likely provide a certain degree of financial support to his older brother to prevent his defection.

“I believe the new North Korean leadership will keep a close watch on Jong-nam as his defection will deal a severe blow to the communist state,” he said.

The professor, however, ruled out the possibility of another assassination attempt on Jong-nam, who has lived a life of gambling and drinking, as this would greatly undermine his image as a new leader.
He said Kim Jong-chul, the second son of former communist dictator Kim, will maintain his status quo as he has shown no interest in interfering in politics.

“Jong-chul has no political ambitions, nor has the capacity to gain a grip on power within the regime,” he said.

Yoon said Jong-un will likely be more lenient on Jong-chul as the two are from the same biological mother, Ko Young-hee, the third and favorite wife of the late leader Kim.

“김정남 돈줄 끊기면 남한으로 망명할 수도”
권력다툼에서 밀려난 뒤 중국과 마카오 등을 떠돌며 국제 미아신세가 된 김정일 북한 국방위원장의 장남 김정남이 남한으로 망명을 선택하게 될지 모른다는 주장이 제기되었다. 윤규식 육군종합행정학교 북한학 교수는 북한으로부터 자금지원이 끊겨지면 자연스레 호화 해외생활을 해온 김정남이 한국으로의 망명을 고민하게 될 거라 전망했다. 윤교수는 특히 이복동생이자 후계자로 지목된 김정은이 북한의 만성적인 식량난, 경제난을 해결하지 못하고 오히려 상황을 더 악화시킨다면 김정남이 해외에서 버티기를 포기하고 남한으로의 망명이라는 카드를 선택할 지 모른다 주장했다. 김정남은 그가 가진 북한의 고급정보를 통해 북한 체재를 무너트리고 통일을 이루는데 상당한 역할을 할 수 있는 인물이다. 이에 대해 양무진 북한대학원대학교 교수는 김정은 정권이 남한으로의 망명을 막기 위해 어느 정도 간접적 자금지원과 대우를 유지해 갈 거라 주장했다. 양교수는 아버지가 도와주는 것과 이복동생이 도와주는 것은 당연히 그 정도와 방식이 다를 것이기 때문에 김정남의 존재가 상당히 위축될 수 있다고 했다. 또한 그는 “암살 등의 시도는 오히려 괜한 오해를 받고 부작용이 클 수 있기에” 김정은은 나름 데로 김정남을 감시하며 관리해 나갈 거라 본다고 말했다. . 김정남은 김정은이 귀국을 반기지 않고 김정남 자신도 신변안전을 위해 귀국을 하지 않아 김정일 국방위원장의 장례식에조차 참석하지도 못한 것으로 알려져 있다. 김정은은 자신의 최대 정적인 김정남을 암살을 시도했으나 중국의 반대로 실패했던 것으로 알려져있다.
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