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Experts have cautiously raised the possibility of Kim Jong-nam, the first son of the late North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, turning his back on his communist country and defecting to South Korea.
“If Pyongyang cuts financial support to Kim Jong-nam who has been pushed out of power, it would be natural for him to weigh the option of defecting to Seoul,” said Yoon Kyu-sik, professor at the Army Consolidated Administrative School in Yeongnam, North Chungcheong Province, Wednesday.
Jong-nam, 40, has lived a life of reclusive luxury in Macau, allegedly under the protection of the Chinese government since he was caught in 2001 for entering Japan on a fake passport.
His half-brother Kim Jong-un, who has inherited his father’s role in the Kim Dynasty, reportedly plotted an assassination attempt on his elder brother after eliminating his close aides in the Stalinist North.
Yoon claimed that Jong-nam would decide to seek asylum if his younger brother Jong-un, who is believed to be in his late 20s, does not guarantee a quality life abroad and fails to revive his impoverished but nuclear-armed nation.
“If he sees no signs of improvement in the North, it is possible for Jong-nam to desert his country and make use of his highly valued information about the secretive communist regime for the reunification of the two Koreas,” he said.
Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, concurred with him, noting the strained relationship between the late Kim’s eldest and the third son.
“What appears to be certain is that Jong-un won’t be as caring and compassionate as his late father was to Jong-nam,” he said.
The North Korea expert underlined that it will be impossible for Jong-nam to return to the North or hold any significant title under his brother’s rule.
He said Jong-nam is also acutely aware that his brother would not allow him to stay in the North as this can be interpreted as a challenge to his authorities.
Sources say Jong-nam was not even invited to the funeral for his father Wednesday.
Yang said that Jong-un will likely provide a certain degree of financial support to his older brother to prevent his defection.
“I believe the new North Korean leadership will keep a close watch on Jong-nam as his defection will deal a severe blow to the communist state,” he said.
The professor, however, ruled out the possibility of another assassination attempt on Jong-nam, who has lived a life of gambling and drinking, as this would greatly undermine his image as a new leader.
He said Kim Jong-chul, the second son of former communist dictator Kim, will maintain his status quo as he has shown no interest in interfering in politics.
“Jong-chul has no political ambitions, nor has the capacity to gain a grip on power within the regime,” he said.
Yoon said Jong-un will likely be more lenient on Jong-chul as the two are from the same biological mother, Ko Young-hee, the third and favorite wife of the late leader Kim.
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