By Kim Young-jin
The fate of the new North Korean regime led by Kim Jong-un, the youngest son of late leader Kim Jong-il, lies squarely in the hands of his closest aides and their ability to curry support for the inexperienced young man, experts said Tuesday.
Huge questions continued to circulate one day after Pyongyang announced the senior Kim died Saturday of a heart attack and thrust Kim Jong-un, thought to be no older than 29, into the leader’s role.
Foremost among them was whether the “Great Successor” — whose leadership has been recognized by China and Russia — could stave off potential power struggles among factions of the North’s elite. Observers said the new regime needs to quickly rally support, especially from the country’s powerful military.
“This inner circle is looking to maintain stability first and foremost,” Park Young-ho, an analyst at the Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU), said. “To do so they need to gain the support of the political and military circles.”
The junior Kim emerged when he was tapped as vice chairman of the Central Military Committee of the ruling Workers’ Party. But unlike Kim Jong-il, who appeared as heir in 1980 but didn’t take charge until his own father died in 1994, he has had precious little time to consolidate his power.
Though the North’s media proclaimed Kim Jong-un as leader, it did not say he replaced his father as supreme commander of the army, or head of the National Defense Commission or general secretary of the Workers’ Party, titles he needs to become unquestioned leader.
Helping him do so is widely believed to be Jang Song-thaek, a powerful, shadowy figure often regarded as the country’s number two. Analysts say Kim Jong-il elevated him to shepherd Jong-un into power. But Jang is also a wild card who may have his own ambitions, they say.
He is the husband of Kim Kyong-hui, the sister of Kim Jong-il who is also believed to have Jong-un’s ear. Choe Ryong-hae, a Kim family confidant who helped the senior Kim consolidate power, is also in the inner circle.
Choe and Jang are on the Central Military Commission of which Jong-un is vice chairman, where they will be able to support him. Jang is also a vice chairman of the National Defense Commission (NDC) which Kim Jong-il controlled until his death.
Kim Yong-il, a technocrat who is also believed to be close to Jong-un, is a secretary of the party and said to give him influence over the country’s security apparatus.
KINU analyst Park said in the short term the core group appears likely to help the Kim family retain power, as it is in the military and political elite’s interest to avoid instability and potential collapse. Others said younger generation of leaders recently promoted into the system were bolstering the new leader.
But others point to challenges from generals who may not be happy with the appointment of the young Kim as a looming source of instability. Speculation is also high over Kim Jong-il’s eldest son, Kim Jong-nam, as someone who may try to step in if the core group has trouble elevating the new leader.
Many thought Kim Jong-il’s next move, had he stayed alive, would be to make his son head of the National Defense Commission, significantly boosting his reach over the military. Such a move was expected for 2012, the year the North celebrates the 100th anniversary of the birth of country founder Kim Il-sung.
Kim Jong-un’s need to secure power may constrain any chances for reform in the impoverished state, and could cause him to order provocations to bolster his military credibility, some analysts say.
Such a push was reportedly behind the shelling last year of Yeonpyeong Island that killed four South Koreans.
The senior Kim, who died at 69, had reportedly been grooming his son to carry on his militarist “juche” or self-reliance ideology since suffering a stroke in 2008.
Despite the huge responsibility cast onto the shoulders of Jong-un, little is known of him. Having studied for a time in Switzerland, he is thought to be fluent in English.