By Kim Young-jin
Up to some 410,000 soldiers would be required to secure North Korea if it were to collapse even under benign circumstances, raising the need for multilateral planning to avoid disastrous clashes or miscalculations, a security expert said this week.
Jennifer Lind, a political scientist at Dartmouth College, said between and 267,000 and 409,500 troops would be needed to stabilize the impoverished country and its nuclear weapons in the case of its collapse, provided it occurs under peaceful conditions.
At a forum at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, Lind said the numbers would climb even higher if a collapse occurred during wartime or if an insurgency developed. In this light, her study showed that “even a very benign assumption produces extremely demanding force requirements.”
She went on to say, “The requirements for stabilizing a collapsed North Korea are so daunting and the dangers of botching it are so calamitous…that this merits early planning.”
The study, which Lind conducted with Bruce Bennett of RAND Corp., comes as Pyongyang attempts to hand power from its 69-year-old leader Kim Jong-il to his youngest son, a scenario some analysts say increases chances for instability in the isolated country.
Whether and how the North could collapse has been a hot topic for decades. The debate has intensified since 2008, when Kim reportedly suffered a stroke. Lind noted that predicting the situation was possible, but planning necessary as the United States, China and South Korea and possibly Russia would likely be involved in dealing with the scenario.
Beijing, the North’s ally and neighbor, is said to be concerned about refugees flooding across its border as well as nuclear security and could send its troops in to stabilize the country in case of a collapse. Many have expressed concern that U.S., South Korean and Chinese forces might clash if not properly coordinated.
Lind, using metrics based on past operations, said initial stabilization efforts would call for up to 312,000 soldiers. Up to another 10,000 would be needed to locate and secure the North’s weapons of mass destruction, dispersed around the country and which could include fissile material, toxic chemicals, assembled bombs and others.
Border control and disarmament efforts would require 28,000 and 49,000 troops respectively, while up to 10,500 would be needed for combat and deterrence. The study did not explore who should provide the personnel.
Other factors considered were dealing with the North’s population, who may not trust South Korean, U.S. or other foreign troops and could be suffering from starvation and disease.
Lind continued to stress the need for at least trilateral communication between Seoul, Washington and Beijing, whether among officials or academics, to prepare for contingencies.
“There is the possibility of a pretty nasty political and military clash between the South Koreans, the U.S. and the Chinese. So we need to figure out early on what are the intentions and motivations of the various actors and we need to communicate those intentions to each other,” she said.